San Francisco vs St. Louis Betting Prediction, Odds & Pick

Neither the San Francisco Giants nor St. Louis Cardinals are going to win their respective division, but both are right in the NL wild-card hunt as they play a special Negro Leagues tribute game in Birmingham, Ala., on Thursday with the Cardinals as short favorites in the MLB Odds.

San Francisco vs. St. Louis: 2024 MLB Expert Analysis

MLB Odds: Cardinals -118, Giants +108 (total 8.5)
Score Prediction: Cardinals 5, Giants 4

San Francisco Giants Odds -108

This is being played at the oldest professional ballpark in the USA, Rickwood Field in Birmingham, Ala. That’s the former home of the Negro Leagues’ Birmingham Black Barons, where Willie Mays once played. Mays was not going to be able to attend because of health and sadly passed away on Tuesday.

The game was scheduled around Juneteenth and will include a tribute to the Negro Leagues and Mays, who had been baseball’s oldest living Hall of Famer and a Birmingham native. He played for the Black Barons in 1948 before his legendary career with the Giants. Both teams will wear period uniforms that honor San Francisco’s and St. Louis’ Negro League histories.

All told, in a career that spanned 20-plus years (1951-73) — most of them with his beloved Giants – Mays made 24 All-Star teams, won two National League MVP awards and had 12 Gold Gloves. He ranks sixth all time in home runs (660), seventh in runs scored (2,068), 10th in RBIs (1,909) and 12th in hits (3,293).

Catcher Tom Murphy has been taking batting practice and throwing out to 110 feet as he works his way back. Murphy was cleared to resume baseball activities earlier this month, but he likely still has a few checkpoints to hit in his recovery from a left knee sprain before the Giants clear him to head out on a minor-league rehab assignment. The 33-year-old is currently on the 60-day injured list and won’t be eligible for activation until the first week of July.

Giants manager Bob Melvin said this week that it’s likely a “stretch” for starting outfielder LaMonte Wade (hamstring) to return from the 10-day injured list before Thursday’s matchup with the Cardinals.

Wade was diagnosed with a Grade 2 left hamstring strain after suffering the injury while sliding into second base in a May 27 win over the Phillies. Wade said his goal was to make it back for this special game as the Giants’ designated hitter.

It’s young righty Keaton Winn (3-7) on the hill Thursday. Winn did not factor into the decision in last Saturday’s 4-3 loss to the Angels, allowing three runs on five hits and two walks with six strikeouts over six innings.

Winn surrendered a solo home run to Mickey Moniak in the second inning, then allowed a game-tying two-run homer to Logan O’Hoppe in the sixth. While he stumbled late, Winn registered 17 swinging strikes on 91 pitches and logged his first quality start since May 28.

Overall, Winn now owns a 6.66 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 46:19 K:BB in 11 starts. His strikeout rate remains mediocre at 7.9 K/9, and despite a decent strikeout-to-walk ratio of 2.42, his high ERA and FIP of 4.80 suggest persistent issues with pitch execution.

Winn has an unconventional way of going about his business on the mound. Immediately, his pitch usage stands out as being a bit odd. He throws his splitter 43% of the time. This is more than his 4-seamer and sinker combined. His lone career start vs. the Cardinals was last year, when Winn allowed a run over four innings in relief to earn the save.

San Francisco has 17 comeback wins this season, which are fifth most in the National League. The Giants have won five times when trailing by two or more runs in the 8th inning or later since May 22, which is the most in MLB over that span.

SF has three wins this season trailing by three or more runs after the 7th inning, which is most in MLB. Only the Orioles and Mariners have two such wins this year.

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St. Louis Cardinals Odds -114

Nearly 30% of the 346 players inducted into the National Baseball Hall of Fame have played a game at Rickwood Field in Birmingham, including 17 notable Cardinals. Current coach Willie McGee played at Rickwood for the Nashville Sounds (AA-Yankees) in the early 1980s, while RHP Riley O’Brien pitched in the 2019 Rickwood Classic as a member of the Montgomery Biscuits (AA-Rays).

The Cards remain without one of the NL’s top catchers in Willson Contreras due to a forearm injury. He began a rehab assignment with Triple-A Memphis on Tuesday and could be activated at some point in this weekend’s series, but not by Thursday.

At the time of his injury, Contreras was the Cardinals’ most productive player, smashing six home runs, hitting .280 and leading the team with a .949 OPS in 31 games.

Injuries have hit the Cards hard this year, with outfielder Tommy Edman also on a rehab assignment. The team has been without outfielder Lars Nootbaar, left-handed starter Steven Matz and relievers Keynan Middleton, Riley O’Brien and Giovanny Gallegos for long stretches. A big part of their inconsistency, Manager Oliver Marmol said, is how hard injuries have hit the team.

Gallegos might be activated for Thursday’s game. He has been out since early May with a right shoulder impingement and had a brutal 12.00 ERA in 13 appearances with St. Louis before getting hurt.

It’s righty and converted reliever Andre Pallante on the mound Thursday. Pallante (2-3, 4.61 ERA) took the loss last Saturday, giving up two runs (one earned) on five hits over 3.1 innings as the Cardinals were downed 5-1 by the Cubs. He struck out four without walking a batter.

Pallante didn’t pitch badly, blanking Chicago through three innings, but Pallante got lifted after 59 pitches (40 strikes) with two runners on base in the fourth and had to watch Chris Roycroft let them both come around to score.

Pallante has been effective in three of four outings since moving into the rotation, posting a 3.64 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 15:7 K:BB through 17.1 innings over that stretch. This will be his first career start and 5th appearance vs. the Giants.

He has appeared in relief four times against the Giants, most recently last season at Busch Stadium, allowing one run on two hits in a blown save opportunity. Pallante has only started against one N.L. West opponent this season, and threw 5.0 scoreless innings vs. Colorado at Busch Stadium on June 9.

Right-handed hitters are batting an absurd .396 against Pallante this season. It would lead all starting pitchers in Major League Baseball this year by 55 points if Pallante was qualified for leaderboards.

Over Pallante’s MLB career, righties have hit .320 against him with an OPS of .845, while lefties have managed just a .236 batting average and a .635 OPS. That’s very unusual against a right-handed pitcher.

The Cardinals have been non-committal with the fifth spot in their rotation ever since Matz hit the injury list, and it’s because none of their depth starters really fit the bill as a replacement. Pallante has been the best option thus far.

Bet Giants at Cardinals MLB Odds

When: Thursday, 7:15 PM ET
Where: Rockwood Field, Birmingham, Ala.
Pitchers (away/home): Keaton Winn/Andre Pallante
TV: FOX
Stream/gameday audio: FOX Sports Live