With every Saturday that passes in 2021, the greatest Triple Crown trainer of all time continues to strengthen his TC hand. Bob Baffert unleashed not one, but two Triple Crown possibilities in the $1,000,000 Rebel Stakes. The Rebel, one of the top Kentucky Derby preps of the TC season, also sent two winter book choices flying off the Derby Trail. Horses that end up off the Kentucky Derby Trail can’t win the Crown. Check out why Baffert, if everything goes right, could send the best potential Triple Crown contingent in history to Churchill Downs for May 1. With that in mind, let’s jump right into action so you can keep planning your bets against their Triple Crown odds.
Triple Crown Betting Predictions: Concert Tour Proves He Belongs
2021 Kentucky Derby
- When: Saturday, May 1, 2021
- Where: Churchill Downs, Louisville, KY
Concert Tour dominates his competition in the Rebel Stakes
Jockey Joel Rosario aboard Concert Tour didn’t hesitate. As soon as the gates opened Joel hustled Concert Tour to the lead.
Jockey and horse got the first quarter-mile in a fast 23.42. Rosario got the Street Sense sired colt to relax in the second quarter-mile. The half went in 47.58, which shows Concert Tour can chill out even when he’s on the lead.
When Caddo River ranged up to Tour, Baffert’s second-best three-year-old blitzed away from his rival. The victory is exactly what Bob wanted from Concert Tour.
The ultra-talented colt relaxed while a quality opponent pressed him from the outside. Tour also paid attention to every cue Rosario provided. If Joel asked him to do something, he did it.
Concert Tour didn’t run nearly as fast as Life Is Good when that one took the San Felipe Stakes. But the Rebel runner did win in a more professional manner. Tour’s victory impressed so much that he became the second choice to take the Triple Crown after Life Is Good.
Hozier took a step forward, Keepmeinmind and Caddo River bombed
Bob Baffert also saddled Hozier, the second-place finisher in the Rebel Stakes. Sired by Pioneerof the Nile, Hozier came on strong up the rail to finish second.
Pioneerof the Nile sired Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. Hozier has the breeding and trainer to have an outside shot at winning the TC. The lone knock? Hozier broke his maiden in February. He may not catch up to his own barn mates.
Both Keepmeinmind and Caddo River ran awful. The Robertino Diodoro horse, that’s Keepmeinmind, appeared on his way for a second or third place finish. But the 2020 Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club winner got bumped in the stretch and then gave up.
Caddo River was all over the track in the stretch. The Brad Cox trained colt pressed Concert Tour, actually got the lead at one point, and then had a chance to re-rally for the win. The fact Caddo River called it a day means the horse knows Concert Tour is better than he is. Horses that don’t fight in Derby preps won’t fight in the first Saturday in May. Don’t expect Caddo River to challenge in the Kentucky Derby much less have enough to win the Triple Crown.
If you’re looking for a possible super longshot to win the Triple Crown, Big Lake impressed. American Pharoah sired the Rebel’s second-place finisher.
Pharoah broke a 37-year TC drought. So Big Lake has the breeding. Steve Asmussen trains, which means Lake almost certainly will improve off the effort.
Mandaloun headlines a deep Louisiana Derby field
Eight horses will run in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby on Saturday. Of the eight, Brad Cox trained Mandaloun looks like a sure-fire Triple Crown threat.
The Into Mischief sired runner calls Brooch, an Empire Maker broodmare, his mama. Empire Maker won the Belmont Stakes. So Mandaloun can run 1 ½ miles.
After Caddo River’s disappointment, Brad Cox will be crossing his fingers that Mandaloun comes through. Mandaloun must beat rivals Midnight Bourbon from the Steve Asmussen barn and Tapit sired Proxy.
Wait for our Kentucky Derby update for a Louisiana Derby deep dive.