Shortly after Rombauer’s Preakness victory on May 15, horse racing handicappers and fans turned their attention to the June 5 Belmont Stakes. This year’s Belmont Stakes could attract 10 to 14 runners. MyBookie has posted early odds for 16 horses, including Rombauer. Check out an odds analysis for the 2021 Test of Champions.
Early Belmont Stakes Odds: Essential Quality Favored Over Rombauer
2021 Belmont Stakes
- When: Saturday, June 5
- Where: Belmont Park, Elmont, NY
2021 Belmont Stakes Odds
- Essential Quality +300
- Rombauer +400
- Hot Rod Charlie +500
- Midnight Bourbon +700
- Caddo River +800
- Rock Your World +1000
- Concert Tour +1200
- Keepmeinmind +1600
- Known Agenda +1000
- Risk Taking +2500
- Malathaat +600
- Promise Keeper +1600
- Weyburn +2000
- Rebel’s Romance +1600
- Brooklyn Strong +5000
- France Go de Ina +3300
Why is Essential Quality favored over Rombauer?
There are a couple of reasons why Essential Quality offers 3-to-1 odds and Rombauer offers 4-to-1 odds. First, Rombauer must run in the 1 ½ mile race three weeks after winning the Preakness.
Although 3 weeks is plenty of time for most horses to recover, Rombauer could have trouble because he ran the fastest he ever has when winning the Triple Crown’s Second Jewel. If Rombauer regresses, Essential Quality, who will have a full month between the Derby and Preakness, could take the Belmont.
Second, Essential Quality is bred to get the Belmont Stakes’ distance. Rombauer’s sire, Twirling Candy, is known as producing milers. His progeny can obviously win races longer than 1 1/8 miles. But 1 ½ miles is much different than 1 1/8 miles. Heck, 1 ½ miles is a lot longer than 1 ¼ miles.
We know Essential Quality can get the distance. His sire, Tapit, has produced two Belmont Stakes winners already, Creator in 2013 and Tapwrit in 2014.
Finally, trainer Brad Cox has pointed Essential Quality to the Test of Champions since his fourth-place finish in the Kentucky Derby. A month can mean a lot for a three-year-old horse. If Quality has matured, he may be the one to beat on June 5.
Which horses between +500 through +1000 offer fair odds?
It’s tough to make a case for Hot Rod Charlie. Breeding, more than anything, determines a Belmont Stakes winners. Some horses will relish the 1 ½ mile distance. Most won’t.
Hot Rod shows Indian Charlie on his broodmare’s side. Indian Charlie had trouble getting 1 ¼ miles, which means Hot Rod shouldn’t like running 1 ½ miles.
Known Agenda and Rock Your World, who both did nothing in the Derby, are bred to handle the distance. So is second-place Preakness winner Midnight Bourbon. But the Belmont will be Midnight’s third race in the span of 5 weeks.
That’s asking a lot from a young horse. So if you’re looking to play a pony between +500 to +1000 odds, look to back Known Agenda or Rock Your World.
What horses at odds of +1200 through +1600 have upset potential?
Two horses look promising. Rebel’s Romance won the Grade 2 UAE Derby in March. Owner Godolphin and trainer Charlie Appleby decided to sit out the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes.
One of the reasons? Rebel’s Romance calls Dubawi, a son of Dubai Millennium, his sire. Romance’s broodmare is Minidress, a mare sired by Street Cry.
The other horse worth taking a look at offering decent odds is Grade 3 Peter Pan winner Promise Keeper. Since a disappointing twelfth place finish in the Tampa Bay Derby, the Todd Pletcher trainee has won two straight.
Promise Keeper’s sire is Constitution. Tapit sired Constitution. Curlin sired Promise Keeper’s broodmare, Mira Alta.
Is there a longshot horse at odds of +2000 or higher that can win the Belmont Stakes?
Weyburn, the Gotham Stakes winner bounced in the Wood Memorial. Before deriding the horse because of that, we can’t forget the Wood was Weyburn’s fifth lifetime race and only is fifth after breaking the maiden.
Belmont Stakes winner A.P. Indy produced Weyburn’s broodmare, Sunday Affair. American Pharoah’s sire, Pioneerof the Nile, also sired Weyburn. If Weyburn has matured since the Wood Memorial, he could definitely win the Belmont Stakes.