Keeneland’s Saturday card is massive. The Lexington, Kentucky horse racing track will run 6 graded races. We handicap and make free picks for 3 of those races: the Ashland, Jenny Wiley, and Blue Grass. Check out top plays and Horse Racing Odds from Keeneland Racetrack for Saturday, July 11. You can also visit our Online Racebook to place your bets on active racetracks.
Keeneland Racetrack Horse Racing Picks
- When: Saturday, July 11 at 1:05 pm ET
- Where: Lexington, KY
- Weather: Partly Cloudy
Keeneland Racing Picks for Saturday, July 11
Race 7 – 4:24 pm ET – 1 1/16 Miles Dirt – $400,000 G1 Ashland Stakes
Just 6 horses have entered the Grade 1 Ashland but, man, what a field! Although you could throw a dart, we’ve settled on Bonny South to finish first. Trainer Brad Cox thought so highly of Bonny South that instead of trying maidens for her first race of the year, he entered her in an optional claiming $80,000 race. South broke her maiden in that and then came right back to win the Grade 2 Fantasy Stakes. There’s no telling how good this filly is.
Tonalist’s Shape may offer much better odds than she normally does. The Saffie Joseph Jr. trained runner has 6 wins from 7 races. Don’t let the light speed ratings fool you. This runner dominates her opponents when she’s feeling good. Consider for the top spot if Bonny South doesn’t impress you.
Kenny McPeek trained Envoutante has two wins, a second, and a third from 5 lifetime races. We like how the Uncle Mo sired runner changed tactics and closed in the last race. Jockey Jose Ortiz can keep her close to the pace or have her again rally from the clouds. She’s another with a shot to win.
- Win: Bonny South
- Place: Tonalist’s Shape
- Show: Envoutante
Race 8 – 4:57 pm ET – 1 1/16 Miles Turf – $350,000 G1 Jenny Wiley Stakes
We’re done trying to beat Chad Brown trained Rushing Fall. The More Than Ready sired 5-year-old mare has 9 wins from 12 races. She finished second in 2 of those other races. Jockey Javier Castellano should provide the perfect trip tracking Juliet Foxtrot. So, we won’t try to beat the chalk.
If any horse can upset Rushing Fall, it’s Richard Mandella trained Jolie Olimpica. The Drosselmeyer sired 4-year-old filly has 5 wins and a second from 6 lifetime races. She’s a ridiculously talented runner. If the odds are right, consider for the top spot.
Toinette is 8-of-12. That makes her a serious player in this if neither Rushing Fall nor Jolie Olimpica are on their game. The Neil Drysdale trained runner won the 1 mile Grade 3 Wilshire in her last. The stretch out should help the cause.
- Win: Rushing Fall
- Place: Jolie Olimpica
- Show: Toinette
Race 9 – 9:00 pm ET – 1 1/8 Miles Dirt – $600,000 G2 Bluegrass Stakes
In most years, the Bluegrass Stakes is one of the top Kentucky Derby preps of the year. Not in 2020. On Saturday, Keeneland runs arguably its most famous horse race without a single top-rated 3-year-old entering the starting gate. But that doesn’t mean a Kentucky Derby contender won’t emerge from the race.
Which horse has the credentials to win the Bluegrass and become a Derby contender? 3-year-old filly Swiss Skydiver might be good enough to dominate her male counterparts on Saturday. The Kenny McPeek trained top choice has won 3 graded stakes races in a row. She should handle the stretch out from 1 1/16 miles to 1 1/8 miles. None of her peers will keep up with her early on in this.
Mike McCarthy puts the saddle on Rushie. The Liam’s Map sired colt finished third behind Honor A.P. and Authentic in the Santa Anita Derby in his last. Either A.P. or Authentic would be odds on to win this. So, give Rushie a shot if you don’t believe in the filly.
Tiesto goes turf to dirt for trainer Bill Mott. It’s hard to understand why Mott, who won last year’s Kentucky Derby with Country House, had the son of Tiznow running on the turf in the first place. The $600,000 purchase should love the dirt.
- Win: Swiss Skydiver
- Place: Rushie
- Show: Tiesto
