The final major preps for the 2021 Breeders’ Cup Classic are in the books. Wouldn’t you know it? The Belmont winner, Essential Quality, and the Kentucky Derby winner, Medina Spirit, are a couple of the favorites heading into the race. The overall chalk is Knicks Go, the super-fast Brad Cox trained runner who romped in this past Saturday’s Lukas Classic Stakes. Check out a Breeders Cup Classic odds update as well as an odds assessment.
2021 Breeders’ Cup Classic | Early Betting Odds
When: Saturday, Nov. 6
Breeders’ Cup Classic Updated Odds for 2021 Race
- Knicks Go +250
- Essential Quality +400
- Medina Spirit +700
- Max Player +800
- Hot Rod Charlie +1000
- Happy Saver +1400
- Rombauer +1600
- Silver State +1800
- Maxfield +2000
- Rock Your World +2000
- Tripoli +2000
- Tacitus +2500
- Idol +2500
- Chuwa Wizard +2500
- Fulsome +2500
Which contender between Knicks Go and Max Player offers the fairest odds?
No doubt, Knicks Go is the top-rated older dirt horse in the world. The Cox trainee has blazing speed. He’s led gate-to-wire in his last three races.
But there’s something about those victories, the Grade 3 Cornhusker, the Grade 1 Whitney, and the Grade 3 Lukas Classic Stakes, that makes Knicks Go a play against. All three were at 1 1/8 miles while the Classic is at a mile-and-a-quarter.
The last time Knicks Go ran 1 ¼ miles, he finished fourth behind Mishriff, Charlatan, and Great Scot in the $20 million Saudi Cup. The horse is built like a sprinter and has shown brilliance due his blazing speed as well as running against suspect competition.
Max Player won both the Suburban and the Jockey Club Gold Cup rating off the front runner and then displaying a nice turn of foot while changing leads in the stretch. Both victories happened at 1 ¼ miles.
Without a doubt, Max Player is the better pick. His odds should be around +500 to +600 not +800 simply because the Steve Asmussen trainee has the style to run by Knicks Go and the other speed in the BC Classic.
Assess, Medina Spirit’s, Hot Rod Charlie’s, and Essential Quality’s chances of winning the Breeders’ Cup Classic
All three have a big chance, but the three-year-old with the best shot is the Belmont winner, Essential Quality. The Tapit sired runner has lost a single race during his career, the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby.
More importantly, Essential Quality, like Max Player, can lay off the pace before displaying a decent turn of foot. Hot Rod Charlie and Medina Spirit must try and run with Knicks Go, which will be a receipt for disaster.
Which likely runner among Happy Saver, Rombauer, and Silver State offer the fairest odds to win the BC Classic?
Silver State is a decent horse, but he failed to win the Parx Dirt Mile in his last. The Classic is a major step up from a race like the ungraded Parx Dirt Mile.
Rombauer is a good race horse, but he doesn’t have the talent to win the Classic. Not only that, but trainer Mike McCarthy may not run him in this race.
So which horse among Happy Saver, Rombauer, and Silver State offers the fairest odds to win the BC Classic? We must go with Happy Saver. Silver State isn’t good enough while Rombauer probably won’t run.
So even though we’re not in love with Happy Saver, or his odds, the Todd Pletcher trainee is the only choice among the three.
Name the two runners that offer odds from +2000 to +2500 that can upset the field and win the Classic?
Maxfield is worth a look. The Street Sense and Godolphin owned runner couldn’t catch Knicks Go in the Whitney, but that race was at 1 1/8 miles. Another 1/8th of a mile could be all Maxfield requires to run down the speedster.
Idol has a shot. It’s not a great shot, but it’s a shot. The Curlin sired runner had no chance in the Awesome Again after Medina Spirit ran the half-mile in 47.72.
The Classic will be run at a much faster pace than a 47.72 half-mile. Think 45 seconds, which means Idol should have a much kinder pace to close into. If he’s on his game, and the pace melts, the closer could pull off a massive upset.