#6 Michigan vs #8 Michigan State NCAAF Odds Overview & Predictions

#6 Michigan vs #8 Michigan State | NCAAF Odds Overview & Predictions

You know it’s a big game in college football when both ESPN’s College GameDay and Fox’s Big Noon Kickoff are on hand, and that’s the case Saturday from East Lansing as No. 6 Michigan takes on No. 8 Michigan State in a matchup of Big Ten unbeatens. The Wolverines are short favorites on the NCAAF odds.

How to Bet Michigan at Michigan State NCAA Football Odds & TV Info

  • When: Saturday, noon ET
  • Where: Spartan Stadium
  • TV: Fox
  • Stream: Fox Sports Go
  • Radio: Tunein.com
  • Opening NCAAF Lines: Michigan -4.5 (total 50.5)

Series History

This will be only the fifth time these two teams will play with both teams ranked in the AP top 10 and the first since 1964. This is only the sixth Big Ten conference game in the poll era where both teams are 7-0. There has never been a 7-0 vs. 7-0 matchup between these schools. The last time both were unbeaten entering the game was 2010 (both 5-0).

The Wolverines lead the all-time series, 71-37-5, including a 21-14-2 record in East Lansing and a 19-14-1 mark in Spartan Stadium; however, since 1950, Michigan holds just a seven-game edge, 38-31-2. The Spartans won last year 27-24 in an upset in Ann Arbor.

Why Bet on Michigan?

The Wolverines will be playing their first ranked school of the season. They are 7-0 for the second time under head coach Jim Harbaugh (2016) and the fifth time since 1980.

They beat Northwestern 33-7 last week. Michigan shut out Northwestern in the second half, turning a three-point halftime lead into a 26-point victory. Aidan Hutchinson had three tackles, a half-sack, broke up a pass, had two quarterback hurries and recovered a fumble. He might be the best defensive player in the country.

Cornelius Johnson blocked a third-quarter Northwestern punt, the first time a Wolverine has blocked a punt since 2019. DJ Turner recorded the first interception of his career, marking the sixth straight contest that the Wolverine defense has forced a turnover.

For the second time this season, running backs Blake Corum and Hassan Haskins each topped the 100-yard rushing mark. Corum rushed for 119 yards and two scores, with Haskins going for 110 yards and two scores of his own as the Wolverine offense accounted for 294 yards on the ground. It was the fifth time in Michigan history that two backs have hit 100-plus yards against Northwestern (last: 1987). Cade McNamara threw for 129 yards. U-M dominated time of possession, holding the ball for 39:19.

U-M ranks top-15 in the country in both scoring offense and scoring defense this season, listing 15th in offense (37.7 points per game) and second in defense (14.3 points allowed per game). The offensive line continues to shut down opposing pass rushers and limit negative plays. The unit leads the Big Ten having allowed just 14 tackles for loss (1.71 average, No. 1 NCAA) and three sacks (0.43 average, No. 2 NCAA) all season.

Why Bet on Michigan State?

The Spartans are 7-0 for the first time since winning the Big Ten title and advancing to the College Football Playoff in 2015; it marks the eighth time overall MSU has started 7-0. MSU is also 4-0 in Big Ten play for the first time since 2017. SU has faced off with one opponent in the AP Top 25, Week 3 against Miami, but the Hurricanes clearly shouldn’t have been ranked in retrospect.

MSU comes off a bye week.  Saturday marks the fifth time Michigan State and Michigan will meet when both teams are ranked in the AP Top 10 and the first since 1964. MSU is 3-1 in the four previous matchups. It also marks just the second matchup of AP Top 10 teams in Spartan Stadium since the “Game of the Century” on Nov. 19, 1966, when No. 2 MSU hosted No. 1 Notre Dame and played to a 10-10 tie; No. 5 MSU beat No. 7 Oregon, 31-28, in East Lansing on Sept. 12, 2015. Michigan State has defeated Michigan 21 times when the Wolverines were ranked in the AP Top 25, including 11 wins in the top 10.

The best transfer in the country this year has been Michigan State’s Kenneth Walker III from Wake Forest. The junior leads the FBS in rushing (142.4 ypg; 997 yards) and is the only player in the nation to rank among the top 15 in rushing, all-purpose yards (seventh with 146.0 ypg), yards per carry (12th with 6.6 avg.) and total TDs (15th with 10). Walker’s 94-yard touchdown run in the third quarter at Rutgers was the longest offensive play from scrimmage in the 125-year history of Michigan State football.

The team with the most rushing yards has won 45 of the last 51 games in the MSU-UM series, with the only exceptions being in 2020, 2016, 2015, 2007, 2004 and 1995.

Sophomore QB Payton Thorne has completed 61 percent of his passes (112-of-183) for 1,701 yards, 15 touchdowns and four interceptions in seven games. He ranks among the Big Ten and FBS leaders in passing efficiency (second and 17th with 162.0 rating), passing TDs (second and 21st with 15), passing (fifth and 35th with 243.0 ypg) and total offense (fifth and 42nd with 256.7 ypg). Thorne also ranks third on the team in rushing with a net of 96 yards on 38 carries with two TDs, although he has gained a total of 180 yards on the ground. Thorne ranks tied for second in the FBS with five passes of 60-plus yards.

Game Trends

  • Wolverines are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
  • Wolverines are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite.
  • Wolverines are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 conference games.
  • Spartans are 5-0-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
  • Spartans are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog.
  • Spartans are 4-15-2 ATS in their last 21 home games.
  • Wolverines are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Michigan State.

Expert Prediction

  • Michigan State 26, Michigan 24

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