Orioles vs. Yankees

Orioles vs. Yankees | 2021 MLB Expert Analysis

Written by on April 7, 2021

The AL East-rival Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees close their three-game series on Wednesday from the Bronx with the Bombers as big favorites on the MLB odds behind new addition Jameson Taillon on the mound.

How to Bet Orioles at Yankees MLB Odds & TV Info
  • When: Wednesday, 6:35 PM ET
  • Where: Yankee Stadium
  • Probable pitchers (away/home): John Means/Jameson Taillon
  • TV: MLB Extra Innings
Why Bet on Baltimore?

The Orioles had to place starting left fielder Austin Hays on the injured list this week. He left Sunday’s win in Boston with right hamstring discomfort after contributing a two-run double in the third. Hamstring injuries are soft-tissue injuries that often require several weeks to heal and sometimes linger, depending on the severity. Orioles outfielder DJ Stewart has been sidelined since tweaking his left hamstring on March 5.

The 25-year-old Hays is a promising piece for the rebuilding Orioles, but injuries have dogged him during his professional career. He only appeared in 33 of 60 games last year but bounced back from an awful start to finish with a roughly league-average .279/.328/.393 line with four home runs in 134 plate appearances. This year, he was 2-for-10 with two RBI and a run scored.

It’s lefty John Means on the mound. Last Thursday, he made the first Opening Day start of his career vs. Boston and allowed just one hit over seven shutout innings. He retired the final 18 batters he faced and not allowing a runner past first base.

Means struck out five and didn’t walk a batter. The only hit that he allowed was a leadoff single to Enrique Hernandez — who he then picked off of first base. Means became the first pitcher in Orioles history to go at least seven innings on Opening Day while allowing one hit or fewer. The 27-year-old southpaw threw 97 pitches in the game — 65 for strikes. He generated 14 whiffs in the contest — eight on his changeup and six on his fastball.

Means is coming off a 2020 in which he served up 12 homers in only 43.2 innings, but when he’s hitting his spots he’s capable of neutralizing any lineup. Much was made of Means’ velocity late in the 2020 season, as it looked to be a major factor for him down the stretch in September. In four games, he posted a 1.52 ERA, 0.63 WHIP, and stuck out 30 batters over 23 2/3 innings, and averaged 94 MPH on the fastball — up from 92 MPH in 2019. In this first start of this season, Means was averaging 91.7 MPH, though the 37-degree weather could have been a factor as he topped out at 93.3 MPH.

Why Bet on NY Yankees?

The Yankees made a trade on Tuesday, acquiring Rangers infielder Rougned Odor, who was designated for assignment by the Rangers before Opening Day and has two years and $27 remaining on his contract, with Texas expected to pick up much of it. The Yankees sent outfielders Antonio Cabello and Josh Stowers to the Rangers.

Since debuting in 2014, his 146 homers are the most among active second basemen (min. 50% games played at 2B). Odor signed a six-year, $49.5 million extension four years ago and his strikeout rates have climbed continually since that deal. He generally has been a poor all-around performer due to significant on-base deficiencies.

Odor’s power has never really been in question. He has three 30-homer seasons in the past five years and swatted 10 long balls in just 148 plate appearances last year. Odor will join a Yankees bench that currently features catcher Kyle Higashioka, outfielder Mike Tauchman, outfielder Brett Gardner and infielder Tyler Wade. The Yankees’ only backup infielder is Wade.

While it’s possible Odor bumps Wade off the roster, Odor has never played shortstop in the majors. Wade has been the Yankees’ primary backup behind Gleyber Torres at the position.

It’s new addition Jameson Taillon on the mound in his Yankee debut. The 29-year-old will make the start on regular four days’ rest as he last pitched in a simulated game on Friday at Yankee Stadium. It will be the former Pirates right-hander’s first MLB appearance since 5/1/19 at Texas after missing the entire 2020 season on the injured list recovering from Tommy John surgery. The Yankees traded for Taillon in January.

Taillon’s best season to date was 2018 with Pittsburgh, when he finished 14-10 with a 3.20 ERA, along with a 1.18 WHIP and 179 strikeouts in 191 innings over 32 starts, leading the club with a 4.9 bWAR.

Game Trends
  • Orioles are 4-1 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series.
  • Orioles are 17-45 in their last 62 Wednesday games.
  • Orioles are 40-106 in their last 146 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Yankees are 0-5 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series.
  • Yankees are 13-5 in their last 18 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
Expert Prediction
  • Yankees 6, Orioles 4
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