Phillies vs Marlins | 2022 MLB Expert Betting Analysis

Phillies vs Marlins | 2022 MLB Expert Betting Analysis

Written by on April 14, 2022

The Miami Marlins are one of the last teams to play their home opener this MLB season as they host the NL East rival Philadelphia Phillies in a series opener Thursday. The Marlins are rare favorites on the MLB odds.

How to Bet Philadelphia at Miami MLB Odds & TV Info

When: Thursday, 6:40 PM ET
Where: loanDepot park
Probable pitchers (away/home): Kyle Gibson/Sandy Alcantara 
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/gameday audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/
Opening MLB Lines: Marlins -110, Phillies +110 (total 7.5)

Why Bet on Philadelphia?

The Phillies lost their second straight game Wednesday, 9-6 at home to the Mets – this will be Philadelphia’s first road game. The Phils might not have second baseman Jean Segura on Thursday.  Segura was removed from Wednesday’s game against the Mets after taking a pitch off his left arm. If the 32-year-old is forced to miss additional time, Johan Camargo and Alec Bohm should see an uptick in at-bats. Segura is hitting .333 with two homers.

Closer Corey Knebel was reinstated from the COVID list ahead of Wednesday’s game – he ended up testing negative. Through his first two appearances with the Phillies, Knebel has struck out three and allowed two baserunners over two innings while converting his only save opportunity.

It’s Kyle Gibson (1-0, 0.00) on the mound. Gibson gave up two hits and struck out 10 over seven scoreless innings in last Saturday’s 4-2 victory over the Athletics.  It was just the fourth time that Gibson’s struck out more than 10 batters in a start (231 career starts) but the second time he’s done so since the beginning of the 2021 season.

Gibson joined Zack Wheeler last season (April 3, 2021) as the only Phillies in the past quarter-century to go at least seven scoreless innings with 10-plus strikeouts in their season debut. Gibson earned a 38% whiff rate, a 37% called plus swinging strike rate, and he commanded his arsenal well the entire game. The veteran allowed only two harmless singles and didn’t walk a batter, needing just 82 pitches to make it through seven frames.

“I was just trying to go out there and have fun,” Gibson said, “go out there and execute pitches. It’s something we’re trying to do — be in the strike zone, be in there early and attack. Take control of the counts, and today it worked out for us.”

Gibson, whose career strikeout rate (K/9) is 14 percent worse than league-average, doesn’t often strike out a ton of batters. It took Gibson fewer pitches (82) to record double-digit strikeouts than ever before in his career. It was just the third time in his career that he allowed only 2 baserunners in a start. Gibson’s fastball averaged just 91.6 MPH.

The Phillies acquired Gibson in a trade with the Texas Rangers last summer. Gibson made the All-Star Game with the Rangers and then went 4-6 with a 5.09 ERA in 12 appearances (11 starts) for Philadelphia.

Why Bet on Miami?

The Marlins weren’t expected to be good this season and they aren’t at 1-4, although they have been competitive in every game. They come off a 4-3 loss at the Angels on Tuesday. Exciting young shortstop azz Chisholm Jr. went 1-for-4 with a two-run home run. Following a leadoff walk from Jon Berti, Chisholm Jr. sent an 84 mph slider from Mike Mayers 353 feet to right field, tying the game at 3-3 in the top of the seventh. Chisolm old has now hit two home runs over his first 13 at-bats of the season.

Miami outfielder Avisail Garcia missed the team’s past two games with a back injury but likely will be available Thursday. Garcia posted the best power numbers of his career last season for the Brewers, slashing .262/.330/.490 with 29 homers and 86 RBI in 135 games but he’s hitting just .154 with no RBIs in the early going this year.

It’s ace Sandy Alcantara on the mound Thursday. He was the team’s Opening Day starter last Friday against the Giants, becoming just the third pitcher in franchise history to start three straight Opening Days — joining Josh Beckett and Josh Johnson.

Alcantara wasn’t at his best in a no-decision against the Giants, giving up two runs on three hits over his five innings. The right-hander also issued five free passes while striking out four on the afternoon. The Giants scratched out a pair of runs against him in the third inning, then Joey Bart slugged a solo homer against him in the fifth.  Alcantara generated just four whiffs out of his 83 pitches in the contest.

Considering he posted a career-best 6.0 percent walk rate in 2021, the performance could be chalked up to an abbreviated spring buildup. The 26-year-old hurler was great last year in which he posted a 3.19 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 201/50 K/BB ratio across 205 2/3 innings.

The Marlins are in a stretch to start the season which has them scheduled to play 13 of their first 15 games against teams that finished the 2021 season above .500, including 3 series against teams who made the postseason (Giants, Cardinals and Braves).

For this home opener, Grammy Award-winning artist and distinguished Puerto Rican artist Yandel will take the mound to throw out the ceremonial first pitch followed by rising local artist Calen Santos performing the National Anthem.

Game Trends

  • Phillies are 4-1 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series.
    Phillies are 2-7 in their last 9 vs. National League East.
    Phillies are 1-6 in their last 7 road games.
    Marlins are 7-2 in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
    Marlins are 2-8 in their last 10 games vs. a right-handed starter.
    Phillies are 4-9 in the last 13 meetings in Miami.

Expert Prediction
Phillies 4, Marlins 2 – Bet the Game Today

 
 

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