#12 Oregon State vs #2 Houston NCAA Tournament Elite Eight

#12 Oregon State vs #2 Houston NCAA Tournament Elite Eight | 2021 NCAA Basketball Expert Analysis

Expect a defensive battle in Monday’s NCAA Tournament Elite Eight matchup between No. 12 Oregon State of the Pac-12 and No. 2 Houston of the American Athletic Conference with the Cougars opening as 8-point favorites on the NCAAB odds.

How to Bet Oregon State vs. Houston NCAA Basketball Odds & TV Info Last Meeting

Oregon State leads the all-time series 2-0. March 11, 1966: Oregon State 63, Houston 60 (NCAA West Regional in Los Angeles, Calif.); March 18, 2009: Oregon State 49, Houston 45 (CBI in Corvallis, Ore.)

Why Bet on Oregon State? | 2021 NCAA Basketball Expert Analysis 

Oregon State (20-12) upset No. 8 Loyola (Chicago) 65-58 in the Sweet 16. Star guard Ethan Thompson had 22 points, including a pair of clinching foul shots with 35 seconds left.

Oregon State built on Warith Alatishe’s buzzer-beating bucket to end the first half by getting some shots to go in the second. Thompson did most of the damage, hitting an early jumper, beating the shot clock with another fadeaway, then catching a Hail Mary heave to beat a full-court press and give the Beavers a 37-24 lead with 12 minutes to go. The game was never much in doubt after that.

The Ramblers, who played with such poise and perfection in toppling top-seeded Illinois, wound up shooting 33% from the field and 5 of 23 from beyond the arc.

“They just want to keep riding the wave,” said Beavers coach Wayne Tinkle, whose team has matched Missouri in 2002 as the lowest-seeded teams to advance past the Sweet 16. “We did use the fact we were picked 12th in the Pac-12 this year,” Tinkle added, “but we haven’t made a big deal about the 12th seed. I don’t want to throw too much at them. They’ll see it. We just have to keep our feet on the ground.”

Oregon State has equaled its most NCAA Tournament wins, tying the 1963 Final Four Team. In the three NCAA Tournament games, the Beavers are shooting 43.7% (69-for-158) from the field and limiting its opponent to 31.3% (57-for-182). OSU is shooting 41.7% (50-for-1120) from beyond the arc and limiting its opponent to 24.6% (35-for-142) from deep during the current six-game winning streak.

Oregon State has five wins against Top 25 teams, its most in a season since the 1975-76 team also won five.

Why Bet on Houston? | 2021 NCAA Basketball Expert Analysis

The Cougars (27-3) easily handled No. 11 Syracuse 62-46 in the Sweet 16. UH came in holding opponents to a national-low 37.3% shooting, and then harassed Syracuse into just 28% (14 for 50), including a 5-for-23 performance from 3-point range. Allowing only 46 points and that 28.0 field goal percentage, the Houston defense set school records in NCAA Tournament play. Houston’s offensive effort against Syracuse’s 2-3 zone was by no means sterling, but the Cougars did enough to advance.

Senior forward Justin Gorham scored 13 points on 4-of-6 shooting and grabbed a game-high 10 rebounds, including four offensive boards, for his team-leading eighth double-double of the season for the second-seeded Cougars, who pushed through to their first trip to a regional final in 37 years.

Junior All-American guard Quentin Grimes led all players with 14 points and four 3-pointers, while sophomore guard Marcus Sasser totaled 12 points with a game-high four steals. DeJon Jarreau finished with nine points, eight rebounds and eight assists while leading the defensive effort that kept Boeheim in check.

With a win over Oregon State, the Cougars would advance to the NCAA Tournament Final Four for the sixth time in school history and the first time since 1984. There, the Cougars would face the (1) Baylor-(3) Arkansas winner from the South Region.

Houston is the only team in the nation to rank among KenPom. com’s Top 8 leaders in both offensive and defensive efficiencies. The Cougars stand at No. 8 offensively (118.5) and No. 6 defensively (88.2). UH leads the nation with a 37.0 field goal percentage defense mark, ranks second with 57.5 points allowed per game and a +19.5 scoring margin and stands third with 14.3 offensive rebounds per game, and third in 3-point field goal percentage defense (28.0).

Game Trends
  • Beavers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.
  • Beavers are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
  • Beavers are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 games overall.
  • Beavers are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog.
  • Cougars are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 Monday games.
  • Cougars are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games as a favorite.
  • Cougars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite.

Expert NBA Prediction

Houston 69, Oregon State 63


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