The reeling South Carolina Gamecocks will look to slow down the runaway express train that is LSU running back Leonard Fournette when they host the unbeaten Tigers in a Week 6 SEC showdown that gets underway on Saturday, live from Williams-Bryce Stadium, weather permitting. The Gamecocks and their NCAA Football odds fans are hoping to play this game at home despite massive flooding in the state of South Carolina due to torrential downpours and widespread flooding that has been levied on the state because of Hurricane Joaquin. Both schools announced Monday that they plan to play the game as scheduled but will continue to monitor the situation. Okay, now let’s find out if the Gamecocks can pull off the big upset at home or whether LSU will stay on track earn a berth in the four-team playoff.
When: Saturday, October 10, 12:00 PM ET
Where: Williams-Brice Stadium, Columbia, South Carolina
NCAAF Odds: LSU -13/ Total 49
The Gamecocks will enter this contest in what I like to call, all-out desperation mode, but even that may not be enough to help them beat a clearly superior LSU team that has big postseason hopes right now. South Carolina looked absolutely awful in their 24-10, Week 5 loss to Missouri (just as I predicted). More importantly, the Gamecocks have yet to find a competent starting quarterback after losing former starter Connor Mitch to a shoulder injury.
Backup Perry Orth got his shot to replace Mitch, but failed miserably, leaving freshman Lorenzo Nunez to get his first career start against Missouri in Week 5. Unfortunately, the young signal-caller struggled immensely in throwing three interceptions in the humbling loss. “We wished he would have thrown those to a little different spot,” Spurrier said. “We’ve got to get the ball to the open guy at the right time. We didn’t do that.”
Sophomore running back Leonard Fournette has been absolutely unstoppable this season in rushing for a stellar 864 yards through four games while averaging an impressive 5.5 yards per carry. The 230-pound bruising big back has topped the 200-yard plateau in each of LSU’s last three games while scoring 11 rushing touchdowns and two more through the air.
LSU humbled Eastern Michigan 44-22 in Week 5, but failed to cover the spread as an insane 45-point home favorite to drop the Tigers to 1-3 ATS on the season. The Tigers are ranked 36th in scoring (35.0 ppg) and 47th in points allowed (21.5 ppg) and have won both of their two SEC matchups this season.
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that South Carolina is in over their heads against LSU in this contest and simply doesn’t stand much of a chance of winning outright – if any. Having said that, clearly the only question that needs to be answered for this Week 6 mismatch is whether or not LSU will cover the spread as nearly two-touchdown road faves. A convincing 64 percent of the betting public likes LSU to win and cash in and I’m going to say that is undoubtedly the right call, with South Carolina (20.0 ppg) averaging a whopping 16.0 points less per game than LSU while simultaneously allowing 5.8 points per game more than their SEC counterparts.
LSU has scored 34 points or more in each of their last three games while topping the 40-point plateau twice during the stretch. Conversely, South Carolina has been held to 20 points or less in two of their last three games and simply looked awful in getting held to 10 points against Missouri. The Tigers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games against a team with a losing home record while South Carolina has gone 1-4 ATS in their last five SEC games and 0-4 ATS in their last four games against a team with a winning record. LSU wins and cashes in with just a wee bit of room to spare.
My Pick: LSU 38 South Carolina 21
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