Most Likely and Unlikely Super Bowl LII Betting Matchups

3 Smarter Super Bowl 51 Prop Bets Better Than Against The Pats

Written by on February 2, 2017

It might not be smart to bet against the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LI on Sunday vs. the Atlanta Falcons. After all, the Patriots have an amazing 15 ATS covers this season and can tie the league record with a 16 th against the Falcons as 3-point favorites. Plus, if you give Bill Belichick two weeks to game plan against any offense, he’s likely to shut it down. But if you aren’t interested in betting against the Patriots because you are a fan or simply think they will cover, here are three smart Super Bowl 51 prop ideas.

3 Smarter Super Bowl 51 Prop Bets Better Than Betting Against The Pats

Falcons Score Or Punt: What Happens First?

That Atlanta scores in any fashion is -140 while punting is +110. Super Bowl LI will feature the NFL’s top- scoring team – Atlanta (540 points, 33.8 points per game) – against the club which allowed the fewest points in the league – New England (250 points, 15.6 points per game). Atlanta, which led the NFL with 540 points scored, has won six consecutive games and is averaging 39.0 points per game over that span. The Falcons are the first team ever to advance to the Super Bowl by scoring at least 30 points in each of the club’s previous six games. The Falcons have set an NFL record by scoring a touchdown on eight straight opening drives. That figures to be tougher against a Patriots team that was second best in the league this year, allowing just 16 points on opening drives with the only TD coming for Buffalo on Oct. 2. The Patriots have allowed an average of just 19 yards on those drives with half of their opponents failing to generate even a single first down. I would take punt here – the Falcons aren’t used to Super Bowl pressure.

Julio Jones Props

Atlanta’s Jones is given over/under totals of 6.5 catches and 98.5 yards with a long of 28. That he scores a TD is -130. Jones might be the NFL’s best receiver. His 31 catches this season of at least 20 yards lead the NFL. He also who led the NFL averaging 100.6 receiving yards per game this season (1,409 yards in 14 games). In five career postseason games, Jones has 552 receiving yards and five touchdown catches. His average of 110.4 receiving yards per game is the highest in NFL postseason history (minimum five games). The 6-foot- 3 Jones is just 27 years old and already has four Pro Bowl and two first-team All-Pro selections on his resume. He’s totaled 497 catches for 7,610 yards with 40 touchdowns in just six NFL seasons. That’s all impressive. However, give Belichick two weeks to take away a team’s best weapon and that’s exactly what he’ll do. The Patriots have only allowed one playoff touchdown to any first-team All-Pro receiver standing 6 foot or taller. The Patriots have only allowed two 100-yard games to such players. Carolina’s Muhsin Muhammad caught four passes on 10 targets for 140 yards with a touchdown in Super Bowl XXXVIII, and Philadelphia’s Terrell Owens caught nine passes on 14 targets for 122 yards in Super Bowl XXXIX.

LeBron James Vs. Matt Ryan

One great thing about the Super Bowl is cross-sport props. This one offers James’ total points scored in Saturday’s game vs. the Knicks against Matt Ryan’s number of completions vs. New England. Both are -115. In Atlanta’s six-game winning streak, Ryan has a 141 rating and first downs on 59.3 percent of his third-down throws. Ryan also was the most efficient deep thrower in the NFL in the regular season and playoffs, going 30 for 63 for 1,122 yards, 10 TDs, no interceptions and a league-best 133.4 rating on throws at least 21 yards downfield. Ryan has completed at least 26 passes overall in his past four games. LeBron is averaging 25.6 points this year. He is averaging 22.0 in two games vs. the Knicks. Love Ryan here.
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