What's The Best Super Bowl LIV Betting Strategy?

What’s The Best Super Bowl LIV Betting Strategy?

Written by on January 21, 2020

With Super Bowl LIV less than two weeks away from taking place on Sunday, February 2, live from Hard Rock Stadium in sunny Miami, NFL bettors everywhere need to know which bets to make early and which ones they should make later on just prior to the annual ‘Big Dance’.

Thankfully, that’s where I come in with some expert gridiron betting advice that will put you on the right path towards a handful of potentially winning wagers. With that thought in mind, let’s get started.

What’s The Best Super Bowl LIV Betting Strategy?

Betting Early

Super Bowl Spread

After opening at some books as a Pick ‘Em, Kansas City is now sitting at either -1 or -2 points depending on where you’re betting. Either way, if you like Patrick Mahomes and the explosive Chiefs, now is the time to back them before the spread moves even further.

Kansas City has gone a near-perfect 7-0-1 ATS over their last eight games and a pristine 5-0 ATS in their last five games against a team with a winning record. The Chiefs covered the spread against Houston in the divisional round as a 10-point home favorite by putting 51 points on the board. Kansas City then overwhelmed red-hot Tennessee 35-24 in the AFC Championship game to cover the chalk as a 7.5-point home fave and that makes the Chiefs very attractive as a slight, 2-point favorite in Super Bowl 54.

Player Props Odds

I love making Super Bowl player props odds wagers and I believe they should be bet on as early as possible.

Travis Kelce

  • Super Bowl LIV Odds: +700

While Travis Kelce didn’t find his way into the end zone in the AFC Championship game, I love the value the Pro Bowl tight end is offering here, seeing as how he scored a trio of touchdowns in the divisional round against Houston and is the best pass-catching tight end in the game today (sorry George Kittle).

Tyreek Hill

  • Super Bowl LIV Odds: +700

The ultra-fast wideout scored a pair of touchdowns against Tennessee’s stingy defense in the AFC Championship game after failing to find the end zone in his previous three games. Hill has scored a half-dozen touchdowns in his last 10 games and could very well be the first Chiefs player to score in Super Bowl 54.

Sammy Watkins

  • Super Bowl LIV Odds: +1600

The fell-footed Watkins often gets overlooked in Kansas City’s high-powered offense, but I believe that makes his super dangerous and a high-value pick to find his way into the end zone first for the Chiefs in Super Bowl 54, especially after he scored once against Tennessee in the AFC title tilt.

Mecole Hardman

  • Super Bowl LIV Odds: +2000

While the electrifying rookie wideout has made his mark as a dangerous returner, Hardman could also be overlooked in Super Bowl 54 as San Francisco devotes the vast majority of its defensive attention to Hill and Kelce.

Betting Late

Super Bowl Total

  • Super Bowl LIV Odds: -55

No matter which total pick you like, I believe betting the O/U total is a wager that is best made later on, just prior to the Super Bowl. While the Niners have an elite defense that finished second against the pass and second in points allowed, the Over is 4-1-1 in the 49ers last 6 games overall and 7-2 in the Chiefs last 9 games against a team with a team with a winning record.

Still, I  believe the Super Bowl 54 total is a bit high, based mostly on Kansas City’s prolific offense and that the Under could play out if the Niners keep the Chiefs’ offense from going bonkers.