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Bet My Top NFL Week 6 Upset Picks

Written by on October 9, 2014

It’s time for our weekly must bet upset NFL picks. One rule about upset wagers is that the team picked to upset the other team has to win straight up. Only money line bets constitute upset wagers.The reason for this is because the spread line is meant to level the playing field. For example, a team that is getting 10 points and loses by only 7 didn’t “upset” the other team because they only lost by 7 points. They covered the spread while the team giving the points did not.

Bet My Top NFL Week 6 Must Upset Picks

Detroit Lions at Minnesota VikingsWhen: Sunday, Oct. 12, 1:00 pm ETWhere: TCF Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MNTV: FOX

Analysis: The word is that Calvin Johnson may not play on Sunday. It shouldn’t matter. Detroit should still be a slight road favorite to beat the Minnesota Vikings, possibly as much as -4 point favorites, when the two NFC North teams battle it out on the grid iron.Detroit’s defense is ranked first in the NFL. It’s allowing only 282.4 yards per game. Teams score only 15.8 points per against the Detroit D. The defense is fantastic, but Detroit is still, amazingly, only 3 and 2 straight up on the season.Minnesota might have the right offense to beat Detroit’s defense in this matchup. It all depends on Teddy Bridgewater. If Bridgewater plays, Minnesota should be able to get their rushing attack going since Bridgewater has already become one of the better running quarterbacks in the NFL. A solid rushing attack will open things up for Bridgewater to get the ball to his two favorite targets, Greg Jennings and Cordarelle Patterson.Detroit’s offense is only averaging 19.8 points and 343.2 yards per game. That’s well below expectations since the offense that was installed during the off-season mirrors the one down in New Orleans. With or without Calvin Johnson, Detroit might be more anemic than usual. Quarterback Matthew Stafford has produced a few stunningly bad QB ratings this season, like the 61.6 against Green Bay in Week 3, that lead me to believe Minnesota could force him into a couple of picks.Pick: Minnesota Straight Up

Chicago Bears at Atlanta FalconsWhen: Sunday, Oct. 12, 4:25 pm ETWhere: Georgia Dome, Atlanta, GATV: FOX

Analysis: Neither team figures to play much defense in this game, but Atlanta’s issues along the offensive line could be the determining factor. Atlanta will put up points, but the Bears only need two to three more possessions than the Falcons for the money line victory.Against the spread, Atlanta is a solid -3.5 point favorite. The money line wager should pay dividends if you believe in Da Bears who are averaging 23 points per game. Jay Cutler should have all of his weapons, Alshon Jeffery, Martellus Bennett, Brandon Marshall and Matt Forte, at this disposal in this game. Cutler just needs to take things a bit more easily so as not to make mistakes.If he does that, it’s hard to imagine Matt Ryan and the Falcons outscoring Chicago. Atlanta’s number 3 ranked offense will have to get the rushing attack going in order to keep the ball away from Chicago’s offense. The Bears know this. So, they’ll probably emphasize stopping the run, which will turn this game into a shootout.In a shootout, I’m going with the team with the healthier offensive line.Pick: Chicago Straight Up