Raiders Odds & Betting Analysis: Gardner Minshew as #1 QB

One of the NFL’s quarterback battles already has been decided as the Las Vegas Raiders will start journeyman Gardner Minshew over second-year Aidan O’Connell when the Silver & Black open the season as the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 1 with the Bolts as 3-point favorites on the NFL odds.

Raiders head coach Antonio Pierce had said that he planned to name the regular-season starter immediately after his team’s second preseason game. The Raiders fell to 0-2 this preseason on Saturday with a 27-12 home loss to Dallas.

My Analysis

O’Connell, who started a large chunk of last season as a rookie for Las Vegas, completed 14-of-20 passes for 96 yards, one touchdown and one interception in the loss. O’Connell entered the game after the first drive of the second quarter and played into the fourth quarter. He ended on a sour note as he threw a pick six on his final pass of the game.

Minshew drew the start after O’Connell started the team’s first preseason game but largely struggled against Mike Zimmer’s Dallas defense, leaving after the first drive of the second quarter with just three points to show for his work. Minshew completed 10-of-21 passes for 95 yards, adding five yards on his lone carry.

Asked specifically what went into the decision, Pierce pointed out the “experience” of Minshew, who is entering his sixth NFL season, as well as the totality of the competition.

🔴📽️ Live: Coach Antonio Pierce addresses the media. https://t.co/UkFTO4JEhJ
— Las Vegas Raiders (@Raiders) August 18, 2024

“A lot of things went into it,” Pierce said. There’s a lot of factors. So, we feel like Gardner gives us the best opportunity to get off to a fast start, and that’s what we’re going with. We support him, our team’s behind it, our staff’s behind it, the organization’s behind it. … The operation, the process and just everything we saw in practice. Some of it showed up in the games. A lot of stuff we can get better at. I don’t think anything here is a finished product but based off of where we want to go in the first quarter of the season, we feel like Gardner gives us the best opportunity.”

Neither QB has had the entire first-team offense around him this preseason yet. Superstar WR Davante Adams hasn’t played this preseason while left tackle Kolton Miller also has yet to practice in training camp while recovering from an offseason shoulder surgery.

In two preseason games (one start), Minshew has gone 16-of-33 for 212 yards and one touchdown. He earned a 2023 Pro Bowl selection with the Colts, where he played in all 17 games (13 starts), completing 305-of-490 passes (62.2%) for 3,305 yards, 15 touchdowns, nine interceptions and an 84.6 passer rating. He also rushed for 100 yards and three touchdowns on 34 attempts.

However, Minshew also had 14 turnovers last year. Using expected points added per dropback, Minshew was the 18th-best quarterback in the league, slightly ahead of O’Connell (23rd). Over five seasons with the Jacksonville Jaguars, Philadelphia Eagles and Colts, Minshew has started 37 games, posting a 15-22 record.

O’Connell started 10 games in total last year, given the starting spot by Pierce for the remainder of the season over Jimmy Garoppolo following then-head coach Josh McDaniels’ ousting. O’Connell was given ample chance to retain the QB1 spot this year because he had “earned” the chance to compete.

“Aidan is a young player that has tremendous upside,” Pierce said. “I think (he) will be a starter at some point in this league, whether it’s this year or next year. He will play in games.”

Going strictly by salary, Minshew ending up atop the depth chart isn’t unexpected. Now with his fourth NFL team, Minshew inked a two-year, $25 million contract this offseason to join the Silver and Black. O’Connell, a 2023 fourth-round pick, is due $915,000 in base salary.

The Raiders will be breaking in a new offense under new OC Luke Getsy, formerly of the Bears. Expect plenty of run-heavy sets with multiple tight ends in rookie Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer. Also Plenty of play-action set up by feeding running back Zamir White. And short and intermediate strikes to wideouts Adams and Jakobi Meyers as Getsy continues installation of his version of the West Coast offense.

What’s moderately interesting about this decision is that O’Connell did at least start twice against the Chargers last season and was 1-1 against them, including a stunning 63-21 win in Week 15 on a Thursday night after which the Chargers fired their head coach and GM.

O’Connell threw all four of his touchdown passes in the first half, and he finished with 248 yards passing. Minshew’s Colts didn’t face the Chargers last season. Bolts QB Justin Herbert was hurt early in 2024 training camp and will not play in the preseason but the expectation is he will be ready for Week 1 – otherwise, LA wouldn’t be favored.

JOIN NOW

Updated Odds provided by MyBookie Sportsbook

NFL Week 1 Schedule

Thursday, Sep. 5, 8:20pm – Baltimore at Kansas City
Friday, Sep. 6, 8:15pm – Green Bay vs. Philadelphia (in São Paulo, Brazil)
Sunday, Sep. 8, 1:00pm – Pittsburgh at Atlanta
Arizona at Buffalo
Tennessee at Chicago
New England at Cincinnati
Houston at Indianapolis
Jacksonville at Miami
Carolina at New Orleans
Minnesota at NY Giants
Las Vegas at LA Chargers – 4:05pm
Denver at Seattle – 4:05pm
Dallas at Cleveland – 4:05pm
Washington at Tampa Bay – 4:05pm
LA Rams at Detroit – 8:20pm
Monday, Sep. 9, 8:15pm – NY Jets at San Francisco

Previous Betting News | MyBookie News Archive

Raiders Odds & Betting Analysis: QB Battle, Minshew vs O’Connell

While most quarterback battles around NFL training camps currently ongoing are between a rookie and a veteran player, that’s not the case for the Las Vegas Raiders as second-year Aidan O’Connell and veteran journeyman Gardner Minshew fight for the No. 1 job.

Reports are that Minshew perhaps has slightly pulled ahead, with both set to play Saturday when the Raiders visit the Minnesota Vikings in the preseason opener for both. Las Vegas is a 5-point favorite on the NFL odds.

My Analysis

O’Connell finished as Purdue’s all-time leader in completion percentage (66.7), passer rating (141.8) and 500-yard passing games (two) and ranked fourth in program history in career completions (826), fifth in touchdown passes (65) and sixth in passing yards (9,219). Impressive numbers, as Purdue has had a lot of good QBs over the years, led by Drew Brees. O’Connell was a fourth-round pick by the Raiders in the 2023 draft.

He equipped himself well as a rookie last season, leading the Raiders to a 5-5 record in his 10 starts. He threw for 2,218 yards on 213-for-343 passing (62.1%) with 12 touchdown passes, seven interceptions and a 40.5 QBR – he had eight touchdown passes to zero interceptions in the final four games. Mobility and pocket awareness were issues on occasion, as he was sacked 24 times.

However, O’Connell basically had to start over this year given that Las Vegas has a new scheme in place authored by new offensive coordinator Luke Getsy.

“It is a change because it’s a new offense, so it’s a little bit like starting over,” O’Connell said. “But at the same time, it is now my second year in the NFL. I think all the extra rookie stuff I don’t have to do anymore is really a weight off my shoulders. And so, yeah, definitely feeling more comfortable … it’s obviously a competition, so [I’m] trying to put my best foot forward every day.”

Required Points

Las Vegas coach Antonio Pierce said he wanted a “minimum 24 points” out of a new offensive coordinator, after the Raiders averaged 19.5 points per game under former coach Josh McDaniels and interim offensive coordinator Bo Hardegree in 2023 To average 24 points, the Raiders would need to score 408 points, a mark they have hit only three times since their 2002 Super Bowl season.

NFL Draft

The Raiders wanted to take their future QB in the first round of this year’s draft, but a whopping six were off the board when Las Vegas picked Georgia All-American tight end Brock Bowers. The team wanted to trade up and try for 2023 Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels of LSU, as Pierce originally recruited Daniels at Arizona State, but Washington stayed put at No. 2 and took Daniels. Raiders general manager Tom Telesco said after the draft that no trade opportunity to move up arose in the first round, and that they had no interest in drafting a quarterback after Day 1.

The Raiders have used a first-round draft pick on a quarterback only five times in their history — Roman Gabriel (1962), Eldridge Dickey (1968), Marc Wilson (1980), Todd Marinovich (1991) and JaMarcus Russell (2007).

The Contract

Minshew signed a two-year, $25 million free agent contract with the team this off season. Last year, he was only on a one-year, $3 million deal with the Colts but had a strong season, starting 13 games in place of injured starter Anthony Richardson and throwing for 15 touchdowns and a career-high 3,305 yards. Minshew, 28, became a Pro Bowler for the first time, standing in as an alternate for the AFC.

Pierce indicated Monday that he expects both Minshew and O’Connell to play “a legit quarter” in Saturday’s preseason opener against the Vikings but didn’t reveal who’ll take the first snaps.

“Who goes out first and who goes out second really doesn’t matter. [They will] get hopefully an equal amount of snaps and opportunity to showcase,” Pierce said.

Throughout the off season, Pierce has allowed O’Connell to get the initial reps, but equaled out the opportunities with Minshew. And reports are that Minshew has looked better in camp and might have taken the lead after outplaying O’Connell in Saturday’s intrasquad scrimmage.

Minshew has more mobility than O’Connell and looks more comfortable throwing off rollouts or scrambles. But it has been his in the pocket, when he stayed put and went through his progressions, that has stood out of late.

Getsy’s West Coast offense is predicated on throws made with timing and precision. The goal is to quickly and accurately get the ball out to the playmakers. By all accounts, the Raiders offense has struggled regardless of who has been under center during camp.

“They’re going against a very good defense,” Pierce said. “I think they’re feeling that. I think that’s good for our team, the competition part. But obviously, somebody again has to just step up.”

McCarthy’s Debut

Saturday also should be the NFL debut of Vikings rookie QB JJ McCarthy, the No. 10 overall pick out of Michigan, as he battles veteran Sam Darnold for the Minnesota starting job – Darnold should win that for Week 1 of the regular season. Had McCarthy been there at No. 13 in this year’s draft, the Raiders almost surely would have taken him.

Preseason Game Preview

The Raiders and Vikings played one of the worst offensive games in recent NFL history in Week 14 last year, with Minnesota winning 3-0 in Las Vegas. It was the league’s lowest scoring regular-season game in 16 years. Greg Joseph’s 36-yard field goal with 1:57 left was the winner. It was the first 3-0 game since Pittsburgh beat Miami on Nov. 26, 2007. O’Connell completed 21 of 32 passes for 171 yards with an interception in the loss.