Not much has changed in the two weeks since the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs won their championship games. In the Super Bowl, even slight changes can make a big impact. The over/under total went up a point from 54 to 55 while the Chiefs are now a -2 favorite to win Super Bowl LIV instead of -1. Will those changes affect how we should wager on the Vince Lombardi Trophy game? Check out the updated Super Bowl LIV odds, a final betting preview and final against the spread and over/under total picks!
Chiefs vs 49ers Super Bowl LIV Final Betting Preview
- When: Sunday, Jan. Feb 2 at 6:30 pm ET
- Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
- TV: FOX
- ATS Odds: Chiefs -2
- Over/Under Total Odds: 55
Why the Kansas City Chiefs are a good bet -2?
Patrick Mahomes remains the best reason to back the Chiefs ATS in Super Bowl 54. Mahomes’ 8 to 0 TD to INT ratio is the single most important stat heading into Super Bowl 54. It shows that Patrick can, and will, be on his game this Feb. 2nd.
But, there’s another reason to back the Chiefs at -2. LeSean McCoy has been upgraded from questionable to probable. Although Damien Williams is a decent running back, he doesn’t have the fluidity McCoy has on his runs. Also, LeSean can catch the ball out of the backfield. McCoy provides Mahomes another weapon. As good as the San Francisco defense is, we’re asking a lot for them to stop Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Travis Kelce, and LeSean McCoy.
- Total Yards: 374.4
- Passing Yards: 236.9
- Rushing Yards: 137.5
- Points Scored: 25.9
- Total Yards: 381.6
- Passing Yards: 263.9
- Rushing Yards: 117.7
- Points Allowed: 24.9
Why the San Francisco 49ers are a good bet +2?
Although safety Jaquiski Tartt remains listed as questionable, the 49ers got some excellent news about a couple of front 7 players. Both Dee Ford and Kwon Alexander are listed as probable. In the NFC Championship, Alexander had 2 tackles. Dee Ford only had 1. But their presence allows San Francisco to rotate their defensive linemen and linebackers. That’s a massive help for a defense that must pressure the top quarterback in the NFL to have any shot of winning a Super Bowl.
- Total Yards: 345.5
- Passing Yards: 233.3
- Rushing Yards: 112.2
- Points Scored: 23.5
- Total Yards: 352.6
- Passing Yards: 232.6
- Rushing Yards: 120.1
- Points Allowed: 19.6
Super Bowl LIV Betting Trends for Chiefs vs 49ers
- 49ers are 6-1 ATS versus a team with a winning record
- San Francisco is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog
- 49ers are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall
- Under is 4-1 in San Francisco’s last 5 playoff games
- Chiefs are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games
- Kansas City is 5-0 ATS versus a team with a winning record
- Chiefs are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 as a favorite
- Over is 7-2 in Chiefs 9 versus a team with a winning record
Super Bowl LIV Final NFL Betting Analysis
Both teams head to Miami Gardens relatively healthy. The most important injury remains Jaquiski Tartt. San Francisco’s strong safety remains listed as questionable. The difference between questionable and probable is big.
If Tartt can’t go, we must assume that Patrick Mahomes has a big day. If you like to wager on Super Bowl props, go over on Mahomes’ individual prop wagers. That’s a bonus from us.
When it comes to this battle, assuming Mahomes does have a massive day, we can’t blindly bet the Chiefs, though. First, the -2 comes with -105 odds. Those that set odds are willing to take less of a cut on Kansas City bets. That tells us oddsmakers aren’t sold on KC being a -2 chalk.
Second, the most important matchup isn’t Mahomes versus San Francisco’s defense. It’s San Francisco’s rushing attack against the Kansas City defense. San Francisco rushed for 285 yards against the Packers in the NFC Championship. That has to be the reason Andy Reid has gotten no sleep the past couple of weeks.
But, maybe, Reid’s restless nights are unfounded. Although based on stats the Chiefs have no shot at stopping the 49ers’ running backs, that isn’t the case. Heading into the AFC Championship, Tennessee Titans rusher Derrick Henry had rumbled for a combined 377 yards in wins over New England and Baltimore.
The Chiefs held Henry to 69 yards on 19 carries. If Mahomes and the offense do their part, and they will, Kansas City mustn’t hold the 49ers to 85 total rushing yards like they did Tennessee. They only must hold them to 150 rushing yards or less. That’s more than doable. Back the Chiefs at -2 in an entertaining, more than 55 points, Super Bowl LIV.
Super Bowl LIV Free Picks: Kansas City Chiefs -2 & Over 55