NFL Conference Odds Expert Analysis Update Nov. 11 Edition

NFL Conference Odds Expert Analysis Update Nov. 11 Edition

Written by on November 11, 2020

New Orleans are now the chalk to win the NFC, the Chiefs’ odds have dropped to below +200, and undefeated Pittsburgh has become Kansas City’s top rival in the AFC. Check out where we are with NFL Conference odds!

Updated NFL Conference Odds: Saints Outright Favorites in the NFC

2021 NFL Conference Championships

  • When: Sunday, January 24
  • Where: TBD

After Tampa domination, New Orleans becomes NFC favorites

After a 2-game losing streak early in the season, New Orleans had tried to tell everyone that they were suffering through some injuries. Once they got healthier, Sean Payton and Drew Brees said, New Orleans would be back at the top of the conference.

Based on this past Sunday’s game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, nobody with the Saints was lying. New Orleans’ odds dropped significantly, from +900 to +275, after the 38-3 rout against Tom Brady and the Bucs. 

Are the low odds justified? Maybe. While the Saints appear stronger than in the first month of the season, teams like Seattle and Tampa Bay appear to have hit rough patches.

The Seahawks remain a strong second choice at +330, but Seattle has lost two of their last three. Not only that, the Hawks take on the Rams twice, and the Cardinals again, a team they’ve already dropped a game against, in their next eight games.

Tampa was on a 3-game winning streak, but they now have 3 losses and are at Carolina this Sunday before facing the Rams and the KC Chiefs. The Buccaneers must also take on the rejuvenated Atlanta Falcons twice.

The other three teams worth mentioning in the NFC are the Green Bay Packers at +400, the Arizona Cardinals at +900, and the L.A. Rams at +1000. Of the three, the Rams not only offer the better odds, but are in charge of their destiny and, therefore, deserve the longest look.

Los Angeles takes on both the Cardinals and Seahawks twice. If they win all four games, they win the NFC West. Green Bay could be a force in the playoffs, but the Packers’ defense isn’t nearly as strong as the Rams’, which is why LAR deserves a longer look than GB. 

Chiefs less than +200 to win the AFC

At +170, the Kansas City Chiefs are an underlay. The schedule has been downright pathetic. Sure, Kansas City has beaten the Ravens and Bills on the road, but wins versus the Texans, Chargers, Patriots, Broncos, Jets and Panthers don’t impress. The Raiders beat the Chiefs in their fifth game. Also, KC is in line for at least a couple more losses with the Saints, Buccaneers, Falcons, and tough Miami Dolphins on the schedule.

Undefeated Pittsburgh offers much better odds and appear more than ready to challenge KC for AFC supremacy. The Steelers are undefeated after mounting a comeback win against the Dallas Cowboys. At +260, the Steelers are an attractive play to win the conference. They’ve answered every challenge and their style, great defense to go along with a simple but effective offense, can lead to postseason wins.

The Ravens have already lost to Pittsburgh and Kansas City. They’re an uverlay at +400. Buffalo deserves a look, but the Raiders and Titans don’t. Tennessee has a bad defense. The Raiders, like the Titans allow too many points to contend in the playoffs.

Anybody looking to back an underdog should consider the Miami Dolphins. The Fins have won four in a row, including beating two of the better teams in the NFC, the Rams and the Arizona Cardinals. Not only that but after a couple of starts, Tua Tagovailoa has yet to throw an interception. Give the Dolphins a big shot to cause problems for the AFC favorites should Miami make it to the playoffs.

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