Early Best Picks for 2016 NFL Week 1

There are still several changes that are likely to be made by teams in the course of this offseason, so it usually advisable to wait until we have a clear idea of team rosters before deciding on who to bet on in the Week 1 NFL odds. That being said, here are some NFL matchups that look likely to offer good value bets, based on the early 2016 Week 1 NFL lines that were released last week.

Early Best Picks for 2016 NFL Week 1

Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets (PK, 43.5), Sunday, September 11, 2016

Apparently, the NFL betting history has it that, since 1980, teams that are a home pick or an underdog of 2.0 or less points in Game 1 of the season after winning 9 or more regular season games during the previous year have a stellar 12-4 SU&ATS (75%) in those home games. This sets up an interesting scenario for the Bengals vs. Jets matchup, given the NY Jets are coming off a 9-win season, which included a blazing start to the season. Obviously, the Jets still have the QB position still up in the air, but if they can find someone who is as Ryan Fitzpatrick who led the team formidably last year, then they should be more than capable of getting the job done here, considering New York’s defense is all but guaranteed to remain strong (if not get better) from a solid 2015 showing.

Best NFL Pick: New York Jets (PK)

Miami Dolphins at Seattle Seahawks (-7.5, 45.5), Sunday, September 11, 2016

The Dolphins showed a lot of heart last year and if they can build on the promising season they had in the 2015-16 season, they will be a team to watch. The Seahawks, meanwhile, have been one of the best teams in the nation over the last couple of years, with Russell Wilson leading an abled offense and the Legion of Boom keeping order at the back (17.3 PPG allowed  in 2015, good for #1 in NFL last year). The problem, however, is that the Seahawks have been perennial slow starters over the last couple of seasons, often playing shakily at the start of the season before eventually getting their act together. Against a Miami team that conversely tends to start the season strong, I expect the Fins to keep this game close to at least cover the spread, if not deliver an outright upset altogether in a potential low-scoring affair.

Best NFL Picks: Miami Dolphins (+7.5), UNDER 45.5.

New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals (PK, 51), Sunday, September 11, 2016

Besides the aforementioned ATS trend about a home dog of 2.0 or less points in Game 1 after a 9-or-more win season, the Cardinals have been extremely profitable at home as a home pick or underdog of 6.5 or less, going 19-6 SU&ATS (74%) in that scenario since the 2007 season, including a stellar 15-3 SU & ATS (83.3%) mark when playing a non-division opponent. In addition, the Cardinals have been one of the strongest starters of the season over the past couple of seasons, winning six straight to start 2014 and the first three in 2015. Against a New England team that is known for its slow starts to the season, Arizona should be your preferred pick in this game.

Best NFL Picks: Arizona (PK), OVER 51.