Broncos vs Patriots NFL Week 16 Odds, Analysis and Score Prediction

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At 7-7, the Denver Broncos are still in the AFC wild card chase but they can all but forget about the postseason if they lose Sunday night – Christmas Eve – at home to the AFC-worst New England Patriots. Russell Wilson & Co. are nearly TD favorites. 2023 NFL Expert Analysis Broncos vs Patriots | MyBookie Sportsbook NFL Regular Season: September 7, 2023 – January 7, 2024 | Week 16 NFL

How to Bet Broncos at Patriots NFL Odds & TV Info

When: Sunday, 8:15 PM ET
Where: Empower Field at Mile High
TV: NFL Network
Radio: http://www.siriusxm.com/nfl
Stream Option: NFL+
Opening NFL Lines: Broncos -6.5 (total 34.5)

Series History

Including a handful of playoff games, Denver is 31-23 all-time vs. New England but the teams haven’t played since October 2020 when the Broncos won 18-12 in Foxborough. The Patriots and Broncos have played in three Divisional Playoff games and two AFC Championship Games. The Pats have played more games against the Broncos than any other team that has never been in New England’s division with 54 matchups.

Why Bet on Denver Broncos?

The Broncos’ playoff hopes took a major hit in Week 15 as they were routed 42-17 in Detroit as that usually good defense allowed five TD passes by Jared Goff. With the loss, the Broncos dropped their first game of the year to an NFC North opponent and missed a chance to earn their second consecutive win to close a three-game road trip.

“He was making the throws, and he had too much time,” defensive lineman D.J. Jones said of Goff. “So we’ve just got to be better. We’ve got to win up front.”

The Broncos had two plays ruled stopped short of the goal-line late in the third quarter that quarterback Russell Wilson said after the loss to the Lions he believed were each touchdowns — a Wilson pass to Jaleel McLaughlin on second down followed by a run by Javonte Williams on third down. When coach Sean Payton was asked after the game why he didn’t challenge either play, he said: “They were close, the problem is … when you start challenging spots, it becomes difficult.’

Wilson completed 18 of 32 passes for 223 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions. He added seven rushes for six yards and an additional score while also losing a fumble. Wilson had an ugly start to the game, completing only four of 10 passes for 69 yards in the first two quarters. He ended up with decent numbers thanks to garbage time, as the Broncos were down by three scores for nearly the entire second half.

TV cameras caught Broncos coach Sean Payton yelling next to quarterback Wilson after one of those Broncos’ TDs was negated by a penalty late in the third quarter Saturday. Payton said he wasn’t yelling at Wilson, but that he was “upset about the (penalty) call, simple, that’s it. I was upset at the call.” Guard Quinn Meinerz was called for offensive offside on the play and said after the game “I don’t believe I’ve ever been called for offsides in a game.’

Payton said this week that the Broncos could mitigate some of the offensive issues with a better showing in their own run game. Especially to calm things down a bit at the line of scrimmage in terms of what defenses can send Wilson’s way.

“We didn’t run it as well as I thought we would, and quite honestly, I think that’s an area,” Payton said. “Cleveland (a 29-12 Broncos win Nov. 26) was the last game where I felt like we ran it really well. I think in this next three-game stretch, we’re going to have to run it better than we have.”

Denver’s defense will get a boost in this one as safety Kareem Jackson’s four-game suspension ended Monday. The starter returns from his second suspension for repeated violations of the league’s unnecessary roughness rules, bans that have caused him to miss six of the past seven games.

The importance of winning out for Denver is quite clear. The Broncos’ playoff chances sit at 32 percent entering Week 16, according to the New York Times’ playoff simulator. With three wins down the stretch, the Broncos’ playoff odds would jump to 93 percent, including a 79 percent chance at earning a wild-card spot. With an additional loss this year — which would put Denver at 9-8 on the season — the Broncos’ playoff chances would hover around 20 percent.

Sunday will mark the second time this season that Denver will don its white alternate “Snowcapped” helmets, which feature the throwback D logo on the franchise’s first all-white helmet shell. The Broncos debuted the helmets against another AFC East team, the New York Jets, in Week 5 at home. Denver will pair the “Snowcapped” helmet with the all-orange Color Rush uniform set, which has been a staple of the Broncos’ uniform rotation since its introduction in 2016.

Bet Broncos to Win
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Why Bet on New England Patriots?

The Patriots (3-11) are playing out the string on a horrible season and it seems likely that Coach Bill Belichick will not be back in 2024. New England has lost 11 games for the first time since 2000, Belichick’s first season with the franchise.

New England had a chance in Week 15 to win back-to-back games for the first time this season but lost 27-17 at home to Kansas City. QB Bailey Zappe completed 23 of 31 passes for 180 yards and a touchdown with an interception in the loss. His ability to move the ball in the second half may have been hurt by the loss of his favorite option, tight end Hunter Henry (knee), who Zappe had hit for a 16 -yard TD in the second quarter prior to his exit. Not yet clear if Henry will play this week. He has 42 catches for 419 yards and six TDs.

New England placed starting guard Cole Strange on injured reserve Monday and his season is now over after suffering a knee injury during Sunday’s loss to the Chiefs. Atonio Mafi will serve as the team’s starting guard with Strange out. The team also placed cornerback JC Jackson (personal) on the reserve/non-football illness list Tuesday, ending his season. Myles Bryant should see increased playing time now that Jackson is out.

New England heads to Denver with one of the worst rushing attacks in football, ranking 25th in the league while averaging just over 98 yards per game. They will meet a Broncos defense that is even worse against the run, ranking dead last in both yards allowed (146.9) and yards per carry (5.2).

The Patriots have had a long list of struggles this season, but defense hasn’t really been one of them. They are second-best in the league in points allowed per possession over the last six games and for the season they are eighth in total defense, as well as second in run defense.

No one has been able to run the ball against the Patriots this season and the Broncos don’t figure to be the team that breaks that trend. Denver has been just average when it comes to running the ball, ranking 14th in the league with 112.7 yards per game and 12th at 4.2 yards per carry.

Special teams has been a major problem. New England led the league in special teams DVOA in 2020, but they fell to 18th in 2021, were dead last in 2022,and are 31st this season. Rookie kicker Chad Ryland, a fourth-round pick, has missed seven of his 20 field goal attempts, including a 35-yarder that would have tied the game and forced overtime against the Giants. Ryland missed a 41-yarder against the Chiefs on Sunday. He has been the league’s worst kicker.

The Patriots will play on Christmas Eve for the eighth time in team history. The Patriots own a 5-3 record in those games. The Pats will play at Denver for the first time since a 41-16 Patriots win in a Sunday Night Football game on Nov. 12, 2017.

Bet Patriots to Win
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NFL Regular Season Expert Prediction

Broncos 20, Patriots 16

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