Patriots vs Chiefs AFC Championship Odds & Expert Prediction.

Patriots vs Chiefs AFC Championship Odds & Expert Prediction

Written by on January 15, 2019

It’s a chalk AFC Championship Game this Sunday as the second-seeded New England Patriots – in their eighth straight AFC title game – are rare playoff underdogs when they visit the top-ranked Kansas City Chiefs. Either the Saints or Rams await the winner in Atlanta, and Mybookie Sportsbook oddsmakers believe that will be Kansas City.

Before getting into the preview, be sure to check out our exclusive 2019 NFL Playoffs Bracket!

How to Bet Patriots vs Chiefs AFC Championship Odds & Game Info

  • When: Sunday, 6:40 PM ET
  • Where: Arrowhead Stadium, KC
  • TV: CBS
  • Radio: SiriusXM/NFL
  • Live Stream: NFL League Pass
  • AFC Championship Odds: Kansas City Chiefs -3 (Total 57)


Weather Forecast

  • Clear: -11°C/13°F
  • Humidity: 51%
  • Precipitation: 5%
  • Cloud Cover: 4%
  • Wind: 5 mph NNW
  • Stadium Type: Open

First Meeting

In Week 6, the Chiefs lost 43-40 in New England. Stephen Gostkowski hit a 28-yard field goal as time expired. Tom Brady passed for 340 yards and a touchdown and ran for another score, diving head-first between two defenders in a rare run by the 41-year-old quarterback. Brady got some help from rookie Sony Michel, who rushed 24 times for 106 yards and two touchdowns.

Patrick Mahomes finished 23 of 36 for 352 yards in his first loss as a starting quarterback, with three of his four TD passes going to Tyreek Hill. With the Chiefs trailing 40-33, he connected with Hill for a 75-yard score that tied the game with just over three minutes remaining. Brady used a 16-yard pass to James White and a 39-yard completion to Rob Gronkowski to get New England into field-goal range.

Why Bet on New England?

The Patriots didn’t look great at times this season but sure did in Sunday’s 42-28 win over the Chargers. Tom Brady completed 34-of-44 passes for 343 yards and a touchdown. He buried the Bolts with a steady diet of short passes, most of them to Julian Edelman (9-151-0) and James White (15-97-0). New England scored on each of its first four drives and went to the break with a commanding 35-7 lead. The Patriots finished the first half with as many touchdowns (five) as the Chargers (five) had first downs.

New England dominated up front for 60 minutes, pushing the smaller Chargers off the ball throughout the contest. Sony Michel made his postseason debut a memorable one by rushing for 129 yards and three touchdowns on 24 carries. He ripped off a 40-yard run in the second quarter. Michel became just the third player in the past 25 postseasons with three rushing touchdowns in the first half of a playoff game, joining Ricky Watters (1993) and LeGarrette Blount (2013).

Already one of the most prolific wide receivers in playoff history, Sunday’s game by Edelman moved the 32-year-old into second all-time in postseason catches with 98, trailing only 49ers legend Jerry Rice (151). Edelman also moved into seventh place all-time for postseason receiving yards with 1,175. In recording his fifth 100-yard receiving game in the postseason, he moves into third place all-time, behind only Jerry Rice (8) and Michael Irvin (6).

Bill Belichick’s nitpick from a playoff win over the Chargers: “We didn’t finish the game particularly well in any area. Unfortunately, in the third quarter, we missed a few opportunities offensively to get touchdowns and didn’t move the ball very well in the fourth quarter. And gave up three touchdowns on defense.”

If this line holds, this season’s AFC Championship Game will mark only the seventh time in 39 playoff games that the Patriots will be underdogs with head coach Bill Belichick and Brady. New England is 3-3 straight-up in its previous six playoff games as an underdog. New England had been favored in its past 12 playoff games, a streak that dates back to the 2013 AFC Championship Game. The Patriots were road underdogs against Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos and lost 26-16 in that game.

Why Bet on Kansas City?

The Chiefs were easy 31-13 winners over Indianapolis last Saturday to end a six-game home playoff losing streak. Patrick Mahomes completed 27-of-41 passes for 278 yards and rushed three times for eight yards and a touchdown. All four of the Chiefs’ touchdowns came on the ground.

Mahomes and Brady are two of the three quarterbacks to throw 50 touchdown passes in a season, Brady in 2007 and Mahomes this season. They are two of the seven quarterbacks to throw for more than 5,000 yards in a season, Brady in 2011 and Mahomes this season.

Damien Williams rushed 25 times for 129 yards and a touchdown and caught 5-of-6 targets for 25 yards. The Chiefs’ offense hasn’t even missed close to a beat since losing Kareem Hunt. Signed to a two-year, $8.5 million extension late in the year, Williams is continuing to build his case to return as Kansas City’s 2019 lead back. Tyreek Hill caught 8-of-13 targets for 72 yards and rushed once for a 36-yard touchdown.

Patriots vs Chiefs is going to be a close one.

Speaking Monday, Chiefs coach Andy Reid said WR Sammy Watkins (foot) escaped Saturday’s return without setbacks. He caught 6-of-8 targets for 62 yards while playing 76-of-82 snaps. Before Saturday, Watkins hadn’t played for the Chiefs since the Week 11 meeting with the Rams in Los Angeles.

The Colts came into Saturday’s game as the NFL’s top offense in regard to third-down conversions—finding success 48.6 percent of the time throughout the regular season. On Saturday, the Chiefs’ defense became the story as they didn’t allow the Colts to convert a single third down on nine separate attempts.

It was just the fifth time since 1991 that an offense has been held without a third-down conversion in a postseason game. Over their last two games, the Chiefs’ defense has allowed just nine total points. The Chiefs’ defense held the Colts to 263 total yards of offense on Saturday, which was their second-lowest total of the season.

Reid said safety Eric Berry’s playing status for Sunday’s AFC championship is day-to-day. But Reid has said the same thing all season and Berry played in just two games. He didn’t play for the Chiefs in the divisional round playoff game against the Colts nor the final regular season game against the Raiders.

Latest Patriots vs Chiefs AFC Championship Betting Trends

  • Patriots are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 Conference Championships games
  • Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record
  • Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings
  • New England is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 8 of New England’s last 10 games
  • Kansas City is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
  • The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Kansas City’s last 14 games at home

Expert Prediction

Buy this down to -2.5 and give the points.