While we certainly don’t like to make excuses, the rather surprising start to the 2021 NFL season has hurt our picks just a little. We do have winning records in our SU and O/U selections, but we are a little off the pace with our ATS picks. Let’s see if we can get the ball rolling on all fronts in Week 4 of the season, which promises to be a good one. There are a ton of big games on the schedule this week, with Tom Brady returning to New England as a Tampa Bay Buccaneer probably sitting at the top of the list. It’s not quite desperation time for the teams at the bottom of the pile right now, but it is getting to that point rather quickly. We will have our SU and ATS picks in separate articles, so for now, let’s focus on our point total picks for Week 4 of the NFL season so you can keep betting against the NFL odds.
Week 4 O/U Picks for the 2021 Season | NFL Betting
Houston Texans at Buffalo Bills (OVER 48)
After a surprising loss at home in Week 1 to the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Buffalo Bills have responded in a big way. They have won 2 in a row and have put up 78 points in the two games since that loss. There is strong reason to believe that the offense might well go off again this weekend against the Houston Texans. The question here is whether rookie QB David Mills can go into a hostile environment in Buffalo and get any type of offense going. That might well be the key to this one going OVER the point total. The reality here, though, is that he may not have to add that much to get this one OVER, as I think the Bills are set to have another solid offensive outing. Despite the trend going under with these teams, I am taking the OVER.
Tennessee Titans at New York Jets (UNDER 46)
When you are making picks, you always look at trends to see if they will give you a clue as to how a game might play out. That said, you also need to look at the performance of both teams in recent weeks to get perhaps a more accurate assessment. While it is still early in the season, we can see that the Jets are struggling to get anything going offensively with rookie QB Zach Wilson under center. In fact, they have managed just 20 points total in the 3 games that they have played this season. The Titans trends show that they go OVER more often than not, but they have a habit of playing to the level of their opponent, which could well mean that we are in for a low-scoring affair here.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New England Patriots (OVER 49)
This is the game that everyone has circled on the calendar as soon as the 2021 NFL schedule was released. The chance to see Tom Brady playing in Foxboro in a uniform other than that of the Patriots is something that seemed inconceivable a few short years ago, yet here we are. All the hoopla aside, the Buccaneers are looking to bounce back after losing to the LA Rams last weekend, while the Patriots are still adjusting to life with a rookie QB, going 1-2 to start the season. The OVER has hit in all 3 of the Buccaneers games this season, as well as in 6 of their last 7 games in Week 4. Would you really be surprised to see Brady put on an offensive show? Me either.