Super Bowl LIII Spread Betting Prediction & Pick

Super Bowl LIII Spread Betting Prediction & Pick

Written by on January 28, 2019

With less than a week remaining before Super Bowl 53 gets underway, now is a perfect time to offer up one final spread betting pick on the NFL’s annual championship showcase. Whether you like Tom Brady and the perennially-powerful New England Patriots or prefer Aaron Donald and the Los Angeles Rams, you’re going to find out exactly which team is offering the best value against their Super Bowl LIII betting odds.

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Super Bowl LIII Spread Betting Prediction & Pick

New England Patriots (13-5) vs. LA Rams (15-3)

Why Bet on the Los Angeles Rams at +2.5?

Why should you consider betting on the second-seeded Rams in Super Bowl 53? There are a bunch of good reasons despite the fact that Los Angeles really shouldn’t even be in this contest following one of the worst blown calls in NFL history in the NFC Championship game almost two weeks ago.

First, the Rams (15-3 SU, 9-8-1 ATS, 9-9 O/U) have one of the most explosive offenses in all of football under innovative head coach Sean McVay. The Rams average a stellar 32.9 points per game this season to rank second in scoring while ranking an impressive fifth in passing and third in rushing. Another great reason and one that may be even more important than the first one is the fact that L.A. has the best interior defensive lineman in all of football in superstar defensive tackle Aaron Donald.

“This is what I dream about, this is what I work for, this is what you train for — to be in big games like this,” Donald said last week.

The best way to beat Tom Brady is to get pressure up the middle and to the Rams can definitely do that because of Donald and fellow standout defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh.

“Nobody can run the ball on his (Donald’s) side and they have a tough time blocking him so they try to get two or three guys on him. So that helps everybody,” defensive coordinator wade Phillips told reporters.

Another great reason to back Los Angeles is the fact that they’ve been playing their best football on the defensive side of the ball at just the right time. The Rams held Dallas to 22 points in the divisional round before mostly keeping Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints in check in their 26-23 overtime win in the NFC Championship game.

“I felt like over the last couple games and prior to that we started to take care of business, which is the right time to start to peak,” Suh said.

Last but not least, the Rams have a pair of elite cornerbacks in Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters that can cover anyone on New England’s roster man-to-man, thereby freeing up their front seven to get after Brady early and often.

  • Rams are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
  • Rams are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
  • Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

Why Bet on the New England Patriots at -2.5?

Why should you consider betting on the second-seeded  Patriots in Super Bowl 53? There a bunch of great reasons to back New England (13-5 SU, 11-7 ATS, 7-11 O/U). First, the Pats have the greatest quarterback to ever play the game on their side in the incomparable Tom Brady.

“He’s the GOAT man, one of the best to do it — super competitive guy and he’s really like the offensive coordinator on the field,” Rams star cornerback Aqib Talib said of Brady.

Then, there’s the fact that New England also has what many consider to be the best head coach in league history in Bill Belichick. If that weren’t enough, the Patriots are also better balanced on both sides of the ball in ranking fourth in scoring (27.2 ppg) and seventh in points allowed (20.3 ppg).

Another good reason to back New England is the fact that the Patriots are playing their best offensive football of the season at just the right time, having scored 37 points or more in each of their last three games dating back to their regular season finale. Last but not least, the Patriots – and Brady specifically – are highly motivated after what was a pretty uneven regular season campaign for them that saw them lose five times on the road.

“I mean, if you’re not motivated this week you’ve got a major problem,” Brady said on Wednesday. “This is the week where you shouldn’t have to put anything extra in. This is what it’s all about. You sign up any chance you get to play in the AFC Championship Game, so I don’t care where, when, time, cold weather, rain, blood. It don’t matter.”

  • Patriots are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 playoff games.
  • Patriots are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
  • Patriots are 20-8 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Patriots are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games on grass.
  • Patriots are 39-17 ATS in their last 56 games overall.

Expert Spread Analysis and Prediction for Super Bowl LIII

New England has won five straight in this series from 2002 to 2016 after the Rams won the previous four meetings from 1989-2001. However, none of that really matters right now because the rams we currently see are most definitely not the same teams we’ve seen out of this franchise in the past. While The Patriots have gone 6-3 ATS against the Rams in the last nine meetings and 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings, the underdog in this rivalry has gone 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

More importantly, I believe Los Angeles is perfectly suited to pull off the upset over New England in Super Bowl 53, much like Philadelphia did in Super Bowl 52 a year ago. Los Angeles’ defensive line should be able to get pressure on Brady and force him to make some difficult throws while L.A.’s secondary should more than be able to keep up with Julian Edelman and an aging Rob Gronkowski.

I’m expecting Jared Goff and the Rams’ fantastic passing attack to have plenty of chances against a Patriots defense that finished the regular season ranked 22nd against the pass. I like the Rams to get the Super Bowl 53 upset everyone and so should you!

Super Bowl LIII Spread Pick: Rams 31 Patriots 28

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