After every week in the National Football League, odds to win the Super Bowl go through massive shifts. After NFL Week 7, Super Bowl odds have pretty much been turned upside down as a 30-to-1 shot is now a second-tier choice, the preseason chalk is becoming a non-entity, and an outright favorite has emerged. Check out the biggest shifts, and most important NFL Super Bowl odds changes.
Updated NFL Biggest Shifts in Odds to Win Super Bowl
Super Bowl 56
After another loss, Kansas City’s Super Bowl odds rise from +700 to +1200
Before the season started oddsmakers made the Kansas City Chiefs the +450 chalk. Since the season started, KC’s odds have steadily risen.
But after a stunning 27-3 loss to the Tennessee Titans, the odds on Patrick Mahomes and his teammates to win Super Bowl 56 blew up from +700 to +1200. The +500 odds change represents a huge move.
Why have Super Bowl handicappers ditched the Chiefs? For weeks, KC backers have held out hope that the Chiefs’ issues were of the mental variety. After all, the team isn’t much different from the one that lost the 2021 Super Bowl to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
But after the Titans loss, those hopes have flown out the window. Kansas City isn’t a good football team.
The problem starts up front where the offensive line doesn’t have it. Then, we can go to Mahomes who has thrown 9 interceptions in just 7 games. Then, we can look to the terrible defense, which can’t stop the pass or the run.
Oh, we can’t let Andy Reid or Eric Bienemy off the hook. The head coach and offensive coordinator are calling bad play after bad play.
So even though KC should beat the New York Giants on Monday, don’t expect anyone to dump dollars on the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl.
Tampa Bay becomes outright favorite at +450
The odds change on Tampa wasn’t significant, only +50, but it led to the Buccaneers becoming the favorite to win the Super Bowl. One of the reasons future bettors are hot on Tampa is because the Bucs have won games while dealing with injuries to their defense.
The belief is that once the Bucs get healthy, they should roll through their competition on their way to a second straight Super Bowl title. Although there’s some reason to believe that happens, there’s also a reason to believe the Buccaneers have looked good beating bad teams.
Tampa’s victory over the Dallas Cowboys in Week 1 is legit. But the Rams destroyed the Buccaneers.
So if you want to believe a team that has built a 6-1 record with 5 of the wins happening against the Falcons, Patriots, Dolphins, Texans and Bears offers value to at +450, go for it.
Titans drop from +3000 to +1400
After the Tennessee Titans blasted the Kansas City Chiefs, the Nashville based squad went form a 30-to-1 shot to a +1400 choice.
Tennessee isn’t an overlay at 14-to-1. But they are a team to consider backing. Why? Tennessee has a top running back, a future hall of fame player in Derrick Henry.
Teams that can run the football are tough to beat. When a team like the Titans can run the football, they’re doubly tough to beat because Ryan Tannehill is a good quarterback and he’s got weapons.
If you like Tennessee, maybe, wait for NFL Week 8 to finish before taking a stab. The Titans could lose on Sunday versus a hot Indianapolis Colts team. If that happens, Tennessee will offer better odds than the current number.
Patriots dive to +4000 after heading north to +7500 last week
New England’s odds change is difficult to comprehend. The Patriots went from a +7500 choice to a +4000 choice after scoring 54 against the New York Jets.
Yes, you read that right. New England, who is 3-4 on the season, beat the New York Jets and suddenly they’re a viable underdog instead of being a not going to happen longshot.
Just so we’re clear about how ridiculous the odds change is, the Patriots 3 wins have happened agianst the Jets twice and the Houston Texans.
So, no, +4000 are not fair odds. +5000? Maybe. +6000? Yes. But +4000? Not even close.
Bengals fall to mid-chalk status, drop from +7500 to +3300
If the playoffs started today, the Cincinnati Bengals would be the first seed in the AFC. The Bengals are a few lucky bounces away from being undefeated.
So it makes sense why Cincinnati would fall from +7500 to +3300. At the current odds, the Bengals are an overlay.
Joe Burrow and his mates didn’t just beat Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens in NFL Week 7. They destroyed the Ravens 41-17 and they did it on the road.
Cincinnati is for real. The team has come together big time and nobody, no defense in the league, can contain Cincy’s Big 3 of Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, and Ja’Marr Chase.
Jump on the Bengals if you believe because their odds should continue to fall.
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