2019 Nitto ATP Finals Odds, Preview & Prediction

2019 Nitto ATP Finals Odds, Preview & Prediction

Written by on November 11, 2019

Okay tennis betting enthusiasts, with the 2019 Nitto ATP World Finals now underway, it’s time to take a look at who’s in the field and which elite tennis stars are offering the best value against their respective ATP Tour odds. If you didn’t know, the top 8 players at the end of the year qualify for the Finals, with two others serving as alternates.

This year’s No. 1 world ranking is on the line with Novak Djokovic looking to upstage the top-ranked Rafael Nadal. The eight men in the field are split into two groups. Each player will play everyone else in their group with the top two finishers from each group advancing to the semifinal round.

Group A, named for Andre Agassi, will consist of Nadal, Daniil Medvedev, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Alexander Zverev. Group B, named for Bjorn Borg, will consist of Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, Dominic Thiem and Matteo Berrettini. World No. 9 Roberto Bautista Agut and World No. 10 Gael Monfils will be the two alternates in London this year. At the start of the year, Medvedev was ranked No. 16, Tsitsipas No. 15 and Berrettini No. 54. They’re now No. 4, No. 6 and No. 8, respectively after each reached a semifinal or better in at least one major for the first time.

For the first time in a decade, half of the ATP Finals field is 23 or younger. Medvedev is 23-years-old, Tsitsipas is 21, Zverev is 22 and Berrettini is 23. In 2009, Nadal was 23, Djokovic, 22, Andy Murray was also 22 and Juan Martin del Potro was 21.

2019 Nitto ATP Finals Odds, Preview & Prediction

  • When: from November 10th to November 17th
  • Where: The O2 Arena in London, United Kingdom
  • Surface: Hard (indoor)
  • TV: ESPN
  • Live Stream: ATPTour.com

2019 ATP Race to London

  1. Rafael Nadal (9,585 points)
  2. Novak Djokovic (8,945 points)
  3. Roger Federer (6,190 points)
  4. Daniil Medvedev (5,705 points)
  5. Dominic Thiem (5,025 points)
  6. Stefanos Tsitsipas (4,000 points)
  7. Alexander Zverev (2,945 points)
  8. Matteo Berrettini (2,670 points)

Odds to Win the 2019 Nitto ATP Finals

  • Novak Djokovic +115
  • Roger Federer +325
  • Daniil Medvedev +400
  • Rafael Nadal +450
  • Stefanos Tsitsipas +1100
  • Alexander Zverev +1100
  • Dominic Thiem +1700
  • Matteo Berrettini +3000

Rafael Nadal

Nadal is a blistering 51-6 on the year with four titles and 19 majors, most recently, the 2019 U.S. Open. The bad news is that Nadal has never won an ATP Finals title. He was the runner-up in 2009 and in 2013.

Novak Djokovic

The World No. 2 is 53-9 with 5 titles this year with major wins coming with a record-setting seventh title in the Australian Open title and a memorable win over Federer in the Wimbledon finals. Djokovic is also the reigning runner-up at this event, but he’s also won five ATP Finals in 2008, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015, which ties him for second place all-time alongside Ivan Lendl and Pete Sampras.

Roger Federer

The World No. 3 and all-time grand slam leader is 51-8 on the year with four titles, though he has failed to win a major for the first time since 2017. Still, Federer reached the finals at Wimbly where he outplayed Djokovic for the most part despite failing to secure the win with two match points in hand. Still, Federer owns the most wins and the best winning percentage indoors of all the players competing in this year’s Nitto ATP Finals. The GOAT is 57-15 all-time at this tournament.

“It feels like I come home in some ways [when I play indoors], so it’s the same thing here,” Federer said. “So far I’ve felt great, the court plays nice and I’m sure we’ll see some great tennis.”

Daniil Medvedev

The now, World No. 4 has had an absolutely phenomenal season in going 59-18 with 4 titles while reaching the finals of the U.S. Open. Medvedev reached three Masters 100 finals while winning in Cincinnati and Shanghai. Medvedev has recorded wins over Federer and Djokovic this season

Dominic Thiem

The World No. 5 is 46-17 on the year with 5titles despite getting off to a slow start. Thiem beat Federer in the finals at Indian Wells to bag his first career Masters 1000 title and he made it to the French Open final for the second year in a row.

Stefanos Tsitsipas

The World No. 6 is 50-24 with 2 titles while reaching the semis in Australia after a fourth round win over Federer. The young Greek made it to his second career Masters 1000 final at Madrid but lost to Djokovic.

Alexander Zverev

the World No. 7 is 42-23 on the year with one title, but the reigning ATP Finals champion has largely struggled on the year with his only win coming in Estoril. Still, the talented German managed to beat both, Federer and Djokovic back-to-back in the semis and final—both in straight sets a year ago to claim this title.

Matteo Berrettini

The World No. 8 has come on strong this year by going 42-21 with two titles. Berrettini made it to the US Open semifinals, before falling to eventual champion Nadal while also reaching the semis in Shanghai. The bad news is that the Italian has an overall head to head record of 2-8 against his ATP rivals in this event.


On Sunday, Federer lost to Thiem 7-5, 7-5 in his opening match while Djokovic took out Berrettini 6-2, 6-1. On Monday, Tsitsipas took out Medvedev for the first time in six meetings, 7-6 (5), 6-4. At the time of this writing, Zverev was up on Nadal 4-2 in the first set of their opening round match.

2019 Nitto ATP Finals Prediction

With Federer dropping his opening round match, he can not afford to lose again, but I’m predicting he will and that makes Djokovic the favorite to win group B. With Rafael Nadal not being nearly the same player off of clay that he is on his favorite surface and Medvedev losing his opening round match against Tsitsipas, I’m going with Sascha Zverev to once again reach the finals where he will fall to Djokovic in an absolute thriller.

Pick: Novak Djokovic