Two of the AFC’s best clash on Thursday when the New England Patriots host the Buffalo Bills. New England is 2 games behind Buffalo and Miami in the ultra-competitive east division. Both teams played against AFC North teams on Thanksgiving with the Bills beating the Lions and the Patriots falling to the Vikings. Will New England get it done on their field? Or will Buffalo increase their division lead over the rival Patriots? Check out NFL Odds, analysis, and a free pick for Buffalo at New England.
NFL Week 13 Betting Preview for Buffalo Bills at New England
Thursday Night Football: Buffalo versus New England Odds and Match Info
- When: Thursday, Dec. 1 at 8:15 pm ET
- Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MA
- TV / Streaming: Prime Video
- ATS Odds: Buffalo -4
- Money line Odds: New England +165 / Buffalo -206
- Over/Under Odds: 43.5
Why bet on Buffalo versus New England?
Since back-to-back losses versus a pair of very good teams in the Jets and Vikings, Buffalo has bounced back with two straight victories. In week 11, the Bills beat the Browns 31-23. Then in week 12, Buffalo bested Detroit 28-25.
Also, even though the Bills lost to Minnesota, they had a big lead. So if Buffalo hadn’t squandered the lead, they’d be on a 3-game winning streak instead of a 2-game streak.
Buffalo Bills Offensive Averages
- Total Yards: 415.9
- Passing Yards: 279.2
- Rushing Yards: 136.7
- Points Scored: 28.1
- Turnovers: 19
Buffalo Bills Defensive Averages
- Total Yards: 327.3
- Passing Yards: 221.6
- Rushing Yards: 105.6
- Points Scored: 18.1
- Takeaways: 17
Why bet on New England versus Buffalo?
Not only that, but the Patriots’ D has become one of the best in the NFL, ranking fourth in total yards allowed per game. Also, even though the Vikings beat the Pats, Mac Jones played great, throwing for 382 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
New England Patriots Offensive Averages
- Total Yards: 325.9
- Passing Yards: 216.9
- Rushing Yards: 109.0
- Points Scored: 21.7
- Turnovers: 17
New England Patriots Defensive Averages
- Total Yards: 307.8
- Passing Yards: 198.5
- Rushing Yards: 109.3
- Points Scored: 18.4
- Takeaways: 16
Bills at Patriots Relevant Trends
- Bills are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 on the road
- Buffalo is 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings in New England
- Under is 6-0 in the Bills’ last 6 on the road
- Patriots are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in December
- New England is 3-1-1 ATS versus a team with a winning record
- Under is 5-1 in the Patriots’ last 6 games in week 13
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots Final Betting Prediction
Although we can’t know for sure, there’s a chance the Patriots were looking past the Vikings in anticipation for this matchup against the Bills. How else to explain New England’s vaunted defense allowing 33 points to a team that scores 23.8 on average?
In any case, we should expect Bill Belichick’s defense to have a good strategy to contain Josh Allen in this game. Belichick will pressure Allen, who still may not be one-hundred percent healthy, into making bad throws.
Not only that, but Buffalo is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 and, like most weeks this season, oddsmakers have overvalued the Bills by making them close to -6 favorites. No doubt, Buffalo can win but the best play is to take the points on the home team.
NFL Week 13 Pick: New England Patriots +5.5