Canelo Vs GGG III Odds Analysis, Betting Preview, and Picks

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One of the year’s most anticipated bouts takes place on Saturday night when for the third time rivals Gennadiy “GGG” Golovkin throws down against Saul “Canelo” Alvarez. Canelo won the last bout via majority decision. Will Gennadiy exact his revenge? Or will Alvarez prove once and for all he’s the better boxer? Check out info, analysis, and a free Boxing Betting pick for Canelo versus GGG. 

Boxing Lines for Canelo vs GGG III – The Trilogy

Unified Super Middleweight Championship: Canelo Alvarez vs Gennadiy Golovkin

• When: Saturday, Sep. 17 
• Where: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
• TV / Streaming: DAZN PPV
• Money Line Odds: Alvarez -555 / Golovkin +312 
• Total Rounds: O 10.5 -227 / Under 10.5 +152

Why back Canelo Alvarez to beat Gennadiy Golovkin?

• Saul Canelo Alvarez 57-2-2 with 39 KO wins

Since the 2018 majority decision victory over Golovkin, Alvarez has fought eight times. Canelo won 7-of-8, dusting opponents Rocky Fielding, Daniel Jacobs, Sergey Kovalev, Callum Smith, Avni Yildirim, Billy Joe Saunders, and Caleb Plant. Canelo’s lone loss happened to one of the top two best light heavyweights in the world, Dmitrii Bivol. Bivol is taller, longer, and has an unbelievable jab. Alvarez got beat because he was going up in weight and fought one of the division’s best. 

Canelo Alvarez Last 5 Bouts

• L – UD R12 vs. Dmitrii Bivol 
• W – TKO R11 vs. Caleb Plant 
• W – TKO R8 vs. Billy Joe Saunders
• W – TKO R3 vs. Avni Yildirim 
• W – UD R12 vs. Callum Smith  

Why back Gennadiy Golovkin to beat Canelo Alvarez?

• Gennadiy Golovkin 42-1-1 with 37 KO wins

Drive means a lot in boxing and no fighter has more drive than Gennadiy Golovkin. GGG has waited years for this fight. While Alvarez has moved up in weight class to light heavyweight to take on guys like Smith and Bivol, Golovkin has fought four times to prepare for a rematch against Canelo. Beating Alvarez drives Gennadiy. So although he’s now 40, Golovkin has a shot because he’s got the experience and the heart to get it done. 

Gennadiy Golovkin Last 5 Bouts

• W – TKO R9 vs. Ryota Murata
• W – TKO R7 vs. Kamil Szeremeta
• W – UD R12 vs. Sergiy Derevyanchenko  
• W – KO R12 vs. Steve Rolls
• L – MD R12 vs. Canelo Alvarez 

Final Betting Analysis: Saul Canelo Alvarez vs Gennadiy Golovkin 

The second bout paints a bad picture for Golovkin. Gennadiy threw 6 body punches in the second fight. There’s no way to beat a fighter of Canelo Alvarez’s abilities if you can’t slow him down.

Golovkin must throw many more body punches in the third bout but throwing to the body is where Gennadiy could get into trouble. Canelo is a master at stepping back, setting his feet, and unleashing power punches.

So every time Gennadiy moves to the body, Alvarez will step back and make Gennadiy pay. Also, Canelo has a half an inch reach advantage. It doesn’t sound like a lot and for most boxers it would be meaningless. 

But for Alvarez it’s a big deal. Golovkin may try to stay to the outside and use his jab. GGG has one of the best jabs in boxing. It’s more like a straight power punch than a traditional jab.

Canelo’s half an inch reach advantage, though, means Gennadiy must get half an inch closer than he’d probably like, which means Canelo can sidestep the jab or remain a half an inch away from GGG’s jab and land punches. 

The most disturbing aspect of Gennadiy’s game at his age is his defense. Ryota Murata, who isn’t close to Canelo’s skill level, landed punches because Golovkin’s defense nowadays is to put his hands up and block punches. GGG doesn’t counter nearly as effectively as he used to.

Finding a nice payoff in this bout is tough. The best course of action is to play a parlay. Saul Alvarez wins to over 10.5 rounds. Golovkin has a terrific chin and still has power, which means Canelo won’t go for the knockout unless he thinks it will be easy to accomplish.   

Boxing Pick: Parlay – Alvarez to win & Over 10.5 rounds  

Undefeated Guido Vianello takes on Jonathan Rice on Saturday night in what should be an excellent bout. Vianello versus Rice is one of Saturday’s headline fights on a day when YouTube boxer Olajide Olatunji also throws down. Check out Boxing Lines, analysis, and free picks for five bouts taking place on Saturday, Jan. 14.

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• When: Saturday, Jan. 14

Thomas Oliveira +644 vs Olajide Olatunji -1666

Olatunji, known as KSI to his fans, was supposed to take on mixed-martial-artist Dillon Danis. KSI last fought in August where he beat two fighters: YouTube rival Swarmz and Luis Pineda. 

On Saturday, Olatunji takes on Thomas Olievera. Known as FaZe Temperrr, there’s some reason to believe the underdog in this gets it done. 

Temperrr has a decent 2-1 record for an amateur. Not only that, but he trains as hard as KSI. Also, Olievera is 4 inches taller, weighs more, and has an inch reach advantage. 

Sure, KSI should win. But the odds discount Olievera’s advantages. Temperrr has a much better shot than the odds imply.    

Boxing Pick: Thomas Oliveira

Edwin Rodriguez +290 vs Floyd Diaz -476

American Floyd Diaz has a nice 8-0 record with 3 knockout victories. Diaz hopes to push the record to 9 when he throws down against veteran Edwin Rodriguez on Saturday.

Rodriguez is 11-6-2 with 5 knockout wins. Edwin last fought in 2021, which puts him at a disadvantage to win this. If Rodriguez is at the top of his game, he will out box his odds. 

But there’s no telling Edwin’s shape. So although Diaz is a slight underlay at his odds, backing Floyd is the way to go.  

Boxing Pick: Floyd Diaz  

Abraham Nova -116 vs Adam Lopez -119

Abraham Nova versus Adam Lopez projects as one of this weekend’s most competitive matches. Nova last fought in June 2022. Abraham lost the bout but it was against well-regarded Robeisy Ramirez. 

Adam Lopez is 16-3-1 with 6 knockout wins. Lopez beat William Encarnacion via unanimous decision in a bout that happened last May.

When odds dropped Lopez was more of a favorite. Late money has rolled onto Nova. But Ramirez exposed a few flaws in Abraham’s game. The slight chalk remains the choice. 

Boxing Pick: Adam Lopez 

Stephen Shaw -166 vs Efe Ajagba +120

Favored Stephan “Big Shot” Shaw is undefeated with an 18-0 record. Shaw has won 13 of his bouts via stoppage.

But although Shaw is undefeated, he’s a 3-year-old veteran up against a 28-year-old boxer with a single loss. Efe Ajagba lost to Frank Sanchez in 2021.

Last year, Ajagba bounced back with a fantastic victory over Jozsef Darmos. Efe beat Darmos via second-round technical knockout. No doubt, Ajagba is one of the toughest fighters Shaw has ever faced. Backing the dog makes sense. 

Boxing Pick: Efe Ajagba 

Jonathan Rice -136 vs Guido Vianello -101

Favored Jonathan Rice is 15-6-1 with 10 knockout victories. Rice has won his last 2 fights. Both bouts were against Michael Polite Coffie.

On Saturday, Rice takes on 10-0-1 Guido Vianello. The slight dog has won 9 of his bouts via stoppage. Vianello, no doubt, has what it takes to win this. 

Rice hasn’t faced power like Vianello’s in a while. Guido is the pick.  

Boxing Pick: Guido Vianello

Artur Beterbiev owns three of boxing’s light heavyweight division belts. Beterbiev would like nothing more than to grab the fourth. But before Artur can face off agianst Dmitry Bivol for the WBC Light Heavyweight Championship, he must get by Anthony Yarde in Yarde’s backyard on Saturday. Check out analysis and a free Boxing Betting pick for Yarde versus Beterbiev as well as four other of Saturday’s top boxing matches. 

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Boxing Events

• When: Saturday, Jan. 28

Artem Dalakian -147 vs David Jimenez +106 | WBA Flyweight Title

• London, England – 3:00 pm ET on ESPN+

Dalakian versus Jimenez should be a fantastic matchup. Artem is the slight favorite because he’s got a 21-0 record. 

Not only is Dalakian undefeated but he also has 15 stoppage victories. Of those 15 stoppage wins, 13 were via technical knockout and 2 were via straight up knockout. 

Jimenez is 12-0. David has 5 knockout wins, 3 technical knockout victories, and a referee technical decision victory. Jimenez last fought in July 2016. 

Dalakian’s last bout was November 2021. Not only that, but this is Artem’s first fight outside of the Ukraine. Backing Jimenez makes sense. 

Boxing Pick: David Jimenez  

Anthony Yarde +430 vs Artur Beterbiev -833 | WBA, WBO, IBF Lightweight Titles

• London, England – 3:00 pm ET on ESPN+

For sure, Yarde has skill. Anthony uses his feet well, moves in and out of trouble, and can throw with both hands.

But although Yarde is a skilled boxer, he’s in trouble. Artur Beterbiev is 18-0 with 18 knockouts for a reason. Beterbiev doesn’t just have power. He wins angles so that he can throw his most powerful shots.

Yarde also tends to leave his hands under his chin, which is a recipe for disaster. Beterbiev will land an overhand right or left that ends Yarde’s night early.  

Boxing Pick: Artur Beterbiev 

Oscar Collazo vs Yudel Reyes

• Inglewood, CA – DAZN

Collazo was supposed to face Wilfredo Mendez. But Mendez suffered an injury a couple of weeks back, which is why when Oscar steps into the ring on Saturday, he’ll take on Yudel Reyes. 

The underdog in this bout has an excellent 15-1 record. The knock against Reyes is that this is his first bout stateside. But if you can look past that issue, he’s good enough to challenge Collazo.

Oscar is 5-0 with 3 technical knockout wins. No doubt, he’s going to attract a ton of action. For sure, the likely favorite can win this. Backing Reyes, though, makes sense. 

Boxing Pick: Oscar Collazo 

Floyd Schofield -2500 vs Alberto Mercado +752

• Inglewood, CA – DAZN

Alberto Mercado has a decent 17-4-1 record. However, Mercado has only stopped 4 of his opponents. That’s a huge red flag for those looking to back the underdog.

Floyd Schofield is one of the sports up and comers. 10 of Schofield’s 12 victories have come via stoppage. Floyd has knocked out 6 of his opponents, has won 3 via TKO, and has a referee technical decision victory on the record. Schofield ends Mercado’s night early. So, look for a knockout prop. 

Boxing Pick: Floyd Schofield  

Alexis Rocha vs Georgie Ashie 

• Inglewood, CA – DAZN

Rocha was supposed to fight Anthony Young, but Golden Boy Promotions, Oscar De La Hoya’s boxing outfit, replaced Young with George Ashie. Once oddsmakers change the line, Alexis Rocha might be more than a -5000 favorite. 

Does Ashie have any chance of upsetting Rocha? Ashie is 33-5-1 and has yet to fight outside of his native Ghana. 

Ghana has terrific gyms. But Rocha is a legit welterweight title contender. So, no, Ashie doesn’t have much chance. Look for a knockout prop before accepting what’s likely to be -5000 or worse odds. 

Boxing Pick: Alexis Rocha 

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