One of the year’s most anticipated bouts takes place on Saturday night when for the third time rivals Gennadiy “GGG” Golovkin throws down against Saul “Canelo” Alvarez. Canelo won the last bout via majority decision. Will Gennadiy exact his revenge? Or will Alvarez prove once and for all he’s the better boxer? Check out info, analysis, and a free Boxing Betting pick for Canelo versus GGG.
Boxing Lines for Canelo vs GGG III – The Trilogy
Unified Super Middleweight Championship: Canelo Alvarez vs Gennadiy Golovkin
- When: Saturday, Sep. 17
- Where: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
- TV / Streaming: DAZN PPV
- Money Line Odds: Alvarez -555 / Golovkin +312
- Total Rounds: O 10.5 -227 / Under 10.5 +152
Why back Canelo Alvarez to beat Gennadiy Golovkin?
- Saul Canelo Alvarez 57-2-2 with 39 KO wins
Since the 2018 majority decision victory over Golovkin, Alvarez has fought eight times. Canelo won 7-of-8, dusting opponents Rocky Fielding, Daniel Jacobs, Sergey Kovalev, Callum Smith, Avni Yildirim, Billy Joe Saunders, and Caleb Plant. Canelo’s lone loss happened to one of the top two best light heavyweights in the world, Dmitrii Bivol. Bivol is taller, longer, and has an unbelievable jab. Alvarez got beat because he was going up in weight and fought one of the division’s best.
Canelo Alvarez Last 5 Bouts
- L – UD R12 vs. Dmitrii Bivol
- W – TKO R11 vs. Caleb Plant
- W – TKO R8 vs. Billy Joe Saunders
- W – TKO R3 vs. Avni Yildirim
- W – UD R12 vs. Callum Smith
Why back Gennadiy Golovkin to beat Canelo Alvarez?
- Gennadiy Golovkin 42-1-1 with 37 KO wins
Drive means a lot in boxing and no fighter has more drive than Gennadiy Golovkin. GGG has waited years for this fight. While Alvarez has moved up in weight class to light heavyweight to take on guys like Smith and Bivol, Golovkin has fought four times to prepare for a rematch against Canelo. Beating Alvarez drives Gennadiy. So although he’s now 40, Golovkin has a shot because he’s got the experience and the heart to get it done.
Gennadiy Golovkin Last 5 Bouts
- W – TKO R9 vs. Ryota Murata
- W – TKO R7 vs. Kamil Szeremeta
- W – UD R12 vs. Sergiy Derevyanchenko
- W – KO R12 vs. Steve Rolls
- L – MD R12 vs. Canelo Alvarez
Final Betting Analysis: Saul Canelo Alvarez vs Gennadiy Golovkin
The second bout paints a bad picture for Golovkin. Gennadiy threw 6 body punches in the second fight. There’s no way to beat a fighter of Canelo Alvarez’s abilities if you can’t slow him down.
Golovkin must throw many more body punches in the third bout but throwing to the body is where Gennadiy could get into trouble. Canelo is a master at stepping back, setting his feet, and unleashing power punches.
So every time Gennadiy moves to the body, Alvarez will step back and make Gennadiy pay. Also, Canelo has a half an inch reach advantage. It doesn’t sound like a lot and for most boxers it would be meaningless.
But for Alvarez it’s a big deal. Golovkin may try to stay to the outside and use his jab. GGG has one of the best jabs in boxing. It’s more like a straight power punch than a traditional jab.
Canelo’s half an inch reach advantage, though, means Gennadiy must get half an inch closer than he’d probably like, which means Canelo can sidestep the jab or remain a half an inch away from GGG’s jab and land punches.
The most disturbing aspect of Gennadiy’s game at his age is his defense. Ryota Murata, who isn’t close to Canelo’s skill level, landed punches because Golovkin’s defense nowadays is to put his hands up and block punches. GGG doesn’t counter nearly as effectively as he used to.
Finding a nice payoff in this bout is tough. The best course of action is to play a parlay. Saul Alvarez wins to over 10.5 rounds. Golovkin has a terrific chin and still has power, which means Canelo won’t go for the knockout unless he thinks it will be easy to accomplish.
Boxing Pick: Parlay – Alvarez to win & Over 10.5 rounds