NCAAF Big Ten Championship: #13 Iowa at #2 Michigan Betting Analysis

On Saturday, #13 Iowa hopes to upset #2 Michigan’s march to the College Football Playoff. The Hawkeyes take on the Wolverines in the 2021 Big Ten Championship game. Minnesota upset  Wisconsin last week opening the door for Iowa to get a shot to win the conference title. The Wolverines upset then #2 Ohio State in their classic end of the regular season rivalry game. Which team gets it done on Saturday? Check out NCAA Football odds, analysis, and a free pick for Iowa versus Michigan. 

College Football – Iowa Hawkeyes vs Michigan Wolverines

#13 Iowa Hawkeyes at #2 Michigan Game Odds & Info

• When: Saturday, Dec. 4 at 8:00 pm ET 
• Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
• TV / Streaming: FOX / Fox Sports
• ATS Odds: Michigan -10 ½  
• Moneyline Odds: Iowa +345 / Michigan -445
• Over/Under Odds: 43 ½    

Why bet on Iowa versus Michigan?

Since back-to-back losses to Purdue and Wisconsin, Iowa has rolled. The Hawkeyes beat Northwestern, Minnesota, Illinois, and Nebraska in their final four games. Not only that, but Iowa’s defense ranks tenth in yards allowed and first in takeaways. The Hawkeyes will field the best defense Michigan has faced all season.   

Iowa Hawkeyes Offensive Averages

• Total Yards: 299.3

• Passing Yards: 177.9

• Rushing Yards: 121.3

• Points Scored: 25.7

• Turnovers: 8

Iowa Hawkeyes Defensive Averages

• Total Yards: 315.8

• Passing Yards: 210.0

• Rushing Yards: 105.8

• Points Scored: 17.3

• Takeaways: 22

Why bet on Michigan versus Iowa?

The Wolverines didn’t just beat Ohio State. They dominated the Buckeyes. The 42-27 victory proved that Jim Harbaugh’s bunch is a serious contender for the National Championship. Also, Michigan has failed just once this season, a 37-33 loss to Michigan State. The Maize & Blue feel they should have won that game. So don’t expect an emotional drop off even after Michigan’s impressive victory against the Buckeyes. 

Michigan Wolverines Offensive Averages

• Total Yards: 451.2

• Passing Yards: 226.3

• Rushing Yards: 224.9

• Points Scored: 37.3

• Turnovers: 4

Michigan Wolverines Defensive Averages

• Total Yards: 318.8

• Passing Yards: 196.3

• Rushing Yards: 122.5

• Points Scored: 17.2

• Takeaways: 7

Relevant Trends for #13 Iowa Hawkeyes versus #2 Michigan Wolverines

• Wolverines are 5-1 ATS in tehir alst 5 games as a favorite
• Michigan is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 at a neutral site
• Over is 5-1 the Wolverines’ lsat 6 at a neutral site
• Hawkeyes are 5-2-1 ATS versus a team with a winning record
• Iowa is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a straight up win
• Over is 4-1 in the Hawkeyes’ last 5 games at a neutral site 

Iowa Hawkeyes vs Michigan Wolverines Final Betting Prediction

Matchups determine the outcome of football games. In this case, based on stats at least, Michigan has a much tougher matchup than the odds indicate. 

The Hawkeyes send a dynamite defense to the field. Iowa allows less than 106 rushing yards per game. So don’t expect Michigan to rush for over 250 yards versus Iowa like they did against Ohio State.

Ah, but here’s the thing. The Hawkeyes have struggled to stop top rushing teams. Wisconsin went for 166, Minnesota rushed for 189, and Nebraska ran for 143.

The point is that Iowa’s great rushing defense is a matter of perspective. Versus bad teams like Illinois and Maryland, Iowa can stop the run. 

But against solid teams like Minnesota and Wisconsin, Iowa’s rush defense falls apart. Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh knows this. 

For Michigan, the most important game, always, is versus Ohio State. But the second most important game is the Big Ten Championship. Harbaugh won’t let his fellas look ahead. Michigan rolls to a Big Ten title and a College Football Playoff spot. 

NCAAF Big Ten Championship Pick: Michigan Wolverines

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