College Football 2022-2023 Updated National Championship Odds

College Football 2022-2023: Updated National Championship Odds

Written by on November 30, 2022

The 2022 college football regular season has concluded and it’s conference championship weekend. The top four in the latest playoff rankings are No. 1 Georgia, No. 2 Michigan, No. 3 TCU and No. 4 USC. If they all win this weekend, they are all in. Georgia and Michigan probably are regardless. TCU might be out with a loss in the Big 12 title game vs. Kansas State and USC definitely will be out with a loss to Utah in the Big 12 title game. Here are the updated national title odds.

2022-2023 College Football Season

The final CFP rankings will be released at 11 a.m. CT Sunday after the conference championships are played. No two-loss team has ever made the four-team field in the first eight years of existence.

The title long shot is two-loss Alabama at +6000 and the Tide are sixth in the rankings. With Ohio State at No. 5, the Crimson Tide sixth and neither playing this weekend, it’s hard to imagine those two swapping spots in the final playoff ranking release Sunday.

The only way they get into the semifinals are if USC and TCU both lose this weekend. The Tide’s best win came at No. 20 Texas, which played its backup quarterback for the final three quarters. Alabama (10-2) lost to teams with a combined five losses. It did not play the SEC’s toughest team, No. 1 Georgia, but nonetheless finished second in the conference’s weaker division. Alabama’s credentials are worthy of a New Year’s Six bowl, not the playoffs.

USC and TCU are both +1200 even though both are in with wins. USC did lose to Utah earlier this year, while TCU rallied past Kansas State with rematches on tap.

Lincoln Riley’s 11 wins ties for the most by a USC head coach in his regular season debut, matching the 11 wins by Howard Jones in 1925 and John Robinson in 1976. Leading Heisman candidate QB Caleb Williams continues to impress the nation with his dazzling performances. Through 12 games, Williams has 44 total TDs and 3 INTs. He is 268-for-407 (.658) for 3,712 yards. He has also rushed for 351 yards on 97 carries with 10 TDs.

USC leads the nation in turnover margin (1.92) and turnovers lost (4). USC is No. 2 in the nation in 3rd down conversion percentage (.553). It is No. 3 in the nation and leads the Pac-12 in scoring offense (42.5). On defense, Tuli Tuipulotu’s 12.5 sacks are the most in a single season at USC since Kenechi Udeze set the Trojans’ record with 16.5 in 2003. He is also No. 5 in the nation in tackles for loss (1.7) and leads the Pac-12.

TCU is 12-0 for the third time in its history and first since 2010, when it went 13-0 en route to winning the Rose Bowl.  TCU is the first Big 12 team to be 12-0 since Texas in 2009. The Horned Frogs are also the first Big 12 member to go 9-0 in conference play since Oklahoma in 2016. TCU’s five wins over ranked opponents surpasses the combined total of the other two undefeated teams (Georgia, 2; Michigan, 2).

The Horned Frogs are making their second appearance in the Big 12 Championship Game at AT&T Stadium in Arlington. TCU dropped a 41-17 decision to Oklahoma in 2017 in the first year of the return of the game after a six-year absence.

Even though Ohio State is No. 5 in the rankings, it has shorter title odds (+800) than both USC and TCU. The CFP is on the brink of a field that doesn’t include Ohio State, Alabama or Clemson. Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State have claimed 17 of the 32 playoff spots. This season, Ohio State and Alabama didn’t win their respective divisions.

For the Buckeyes or Tide to creep back into the conversation, they’re going to need some help — 26 of the previous 32 teams in the top four in the second-to-last ranking have made the CFP. Five of the six that didn’t make it lost in the final weekend.

No. 1 Georgia is the -150 favorite to repeat and Michigan +300 – the Dawgs clobbered the Wolverines in last season’s semifinals. Both UGA and U-M are big favorites in their title games Saturday and will be in the playoff barring 40-point losses or the like. Michigan is 12-0 for the first time under head coach Jim Harbaugh.  U-M has won more games (24) over the last two seasons than any two-year stretch in school history.
 

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