No. 21 Oklahoma State vs. No. 18 Miami Cheez-It Bowl | 2020 NCAAF Expert Analysis

There has yet to be a matchup of ranked teams in the College Football Playoff Top 25 this bowl season, but that changes Tuesday when No. 21 Oklahoma State of the Big 12 takes on No. 18 Miami of the ACC in the Cheez-It Bowl from Orlando.

• When: Tuesday, 5:30 PM ET
• Where: Camping World Stadium, Orlando
• TV: ESPN
• Stream: ESPN app
• Radio:com
• Opening NCAAF Lines: Oklahoma State -2 (total 58.5)

It’s the second all-time meeting between the Hurricanes and Cowboys; Miami defeated Oklahoma State in Coral Gables in October 1991. The game also marks a record sixth Cheez-It Bowl appearance for the Hurricanes, who are 3-2 in five previous trips. Miami’s most recent visit, in 2016, saw the ‘Canes defeat then-No. 14 West Virginia 31-14. Oklahoma State makes its second Cheez-It Bowl appearance following a 30-21 win over then-No. 22 Virginia Tech in the 2017 game.

The Cowboys will be without one of the nation’s top running backs in Chuba Hubbard as he opted out to prepare for the draft. Hubbard ran 133 times for 625 yards with five touchdowns in seven games this season. He should have turned pro after last season, which he nearly did, after leading the FBS with 2,094 yards with 21 touchdowns. ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. ranks Hubbard as the fourth-best running back eligible for the NFL draft.

Okie State (7-3) closed the regular season Dec. 12 with a 42-3 win at Baylor. Dillon Stoner had eight catches for 247 yards with three first-half touchdowns, and freshman running back Dominic Richardson ran for 169 yards with three scores.

With Big 12 leading receiver Tylan Wallace out for the Cowboys because of an injury, Stoner had a 75-yard catch-and-run on the second play of the game. Stoner nearly doubled his season total of 283 yards receiving the senior had on 29 catches in his previous eight games this season. Spencer Sanders completed 20 of 30 passes for 347 yards with two interceptions for Oklahoma State, which finished with 608 total yards.

Stoner’s 247 receiving yards was the third-highest single-game total in program history, trailing only Adarius Bowman (300 yards vs. Kansas in 2006) and James Washington (296 yards vs. Pittsburgh in 2016). Richardson became the fourth Cowboy running back to rush for 100 yards this season, joining Hubbard, LD Brown and Dezmon Jackson. He was the first OSU true freshman to top the century mark since J.D. King in 2017 vs. West Virginia. The Cowboys finished with 608 total yards.

Baylor’s 156 yards of total offense was the second-fewest allowed by OSU in the Mike Gundy-era; the Cowboys held Savannah State to 139 yards in 2012. OSU held Baylor to just three points, the fewest allowed by the Cowboys since they won 59-3 against Lamar on Sept. 14, 2013.

Oklahoma State is 19-11 in its 30 all-time bowl appearances. Its 63.3% winning percentage ranks fifth among all schools with a minimum of 20 bowl appearances.

The Hurricanes (8-2) last played on Dec. 12 as well and were embarrassed 62-26 at home by then-No. 17 North Carolina – which cost Miami a likely spot in the more prestigious and hometown Orange Bowl.  s UNC running backs Javonte Williams and Michael Carter combined for 544 rushing yards and five touchdowns to lead a potent Tar Heels’ offense that amassed over 750 total yards. That was the most allowed in Miami history.

“We got our ass kicked. It was a humiliating performance,” head coach Manny Diaz said. “I think a disappointing part and where I have to better job is that obviously we did not make the adjustments through the course of the game on what they were doing to get stops,” Diaz said. “They were able to continue to do the same two or three things over and over again and have the success that they had.”

Two of Miami’s best defensive players, ends Jaelan Phillips and Quincy Roche, have both opted out of the bowl game to prepare for the NFL Draft. Phillips, a UCLA transfer, leads Miami with 15.5 tackles for loss and eight sacks and is tied for the lead with Roche among Hurricanes defensive linemen with 45 tackles. Roche had 14.5 TFLs, 4.5 sacks and led Miami with three fumble recoveries after signing with Miami as a graduate transfer from Temple in January. Roche and Phillips are expected to be first and second-day picks in the 2021 NFL Draft.

QB D’Eriq King was another opt-out possibility but not only didn’t do that but announced he’ll return next season. picked up ACC Quarterback of the Week three times this year; he has thrown for 2,573 yards and 22 TDs while adding 520 rushing yards and four rushing TDs.

Miami is going bowling for the eighth straight season. Miami has a 20-23 all-time record in 43 bowl games in program history, and is playing in its second bowl game under the direction of Diaz. The Canes are looking for their first bowl this bowl in 2016.

• Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Bowl games.
• Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. ACC.
• Cowboys are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 non-conference games.
• Cowboys are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win.
• Hurricanes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
• Hurricanes are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 bowl games.

Expert College Football Prediction

Oklahoma State 27, Miami 24

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