Updated National Championship Odds After Week 10

Updated National Championship Odds After Week 10

Written by on November 9, 2022

Is the dynasty for the Alabama Crimson Tide over? Coach Nick Saban’s club of course lost in the national title game last season to Georgia and now it appears Bama won’t even reach the SEC title game after it lost a second game on the final play this season in Week 10, 32-31 in overtime at LSU. Now Alabama is a +5500 long shot to win the title and there’s almost no realistic path where it reaches the playoff. Let’s take a look at the NCAAF Week 10 analysis for your favorite betting odds.

The NCAAF week 10

LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels ran for a 25-yard touchdown in overtime and then found Mason Taylor for a do-or-die 2-point conversion to pull the upset.

“I had never beaten Alabama,” first-year coach Brian Kelly said. “I was emotional, not for myself, but I was emotional for our team. Because I know what we looked like in January and to see where we are today, that’s pretty emotional.”

In order to reach the SEC championship game, Alabama would have to beat No. 11 Ole Miss and Auburn AND hope for an LSU collapse with losses at unranked Arkansas and Texas A&M. This is the first time since 2010 that Alabama has two losses before facing Auburn in the Iron Bowl.

One issue this year has been the offensive line. The Tide currently rank 116th in offensive line penalties per game, 124th in blown run block rate and 109th in total blown block rate. Pass protection numbers have improved overall — 24.3% pressure rate (56th), 3.8% sacks per dropback (27th) — but that’s mostly because of work done in early-season blowouts.

QB Bryce Young has been pressured significantly more since he returned from injury three weeks ago, and the penalties have not slowed down. Playing behind a shaky offensive line, Young has had to run for his life. He has been contacted on 22% of his dropbacks this season and was pressured on 44% of his pass attempts against LSU.  As a team, 22.9% of Alabama’s rushes have gone for zero or negative yards. The Tide might lose again this week at Ole Miss.

No. 1 Georgia is the +100 favorite to repeat after beating unbeaten Tennessee 27-13 in Week 10. UT’s offense was No. 1 in the country in multiple key categories going into Saturday — 49.4 points and 553.0 yards per game — but the Bulldog defense, ranked among the nation’s best in most categories, had the better day. Georgia outgained the Volunteers 389-289, with Stetson Bennett finishing 17 of 25 for 257 yards and the two touchdown passes plus a 13-yard TD run.

Georgia went 4-for-4 in the Red Zone with 2 TDs and two field goals. Entering the game, the Bulldogs led the nation in Red Zone offense, scoring 98 percent of the time and now are (50-for-51 with 35 TDs and 15 FGs). Georgia improved to 3-5 all-time against the No. 1 ranked team in school history. The other wins over No. 1 teams came against Florida (28-3 in Jacksonville) in 1985 and Alabama (33-18) for the 2022 CFP National Championship.

UGA faces Mississippi State this week. Georgia leads the series with MSU 19-6 including 4-2 in Starkville. Overall, the Bulldogs have won 12 of the past 13 meetings against MSU. The teams last clashed in 2020 with Georgia posting a 31-24 win in Athens. Georgia hasn’t been to MSU since 2010.

Ohio State is +225 to win it all and Michigan +750 – those two are on a collision course in the Big Ten regular-season finale. The Buckeyes host Indiana this week. Ohio State has not lost a Big Ten Conference game at Ohio Stadium since the 2015 season (Michigan State; 17-14). The Buckeyes have since won 28 consecutive conference games at home.

Ohio State has won 26 consecutive games over Indiana, but Indiana has made things interesting of late with three one-score games in the last 10 years. Ohio State has not allowed Indiana a rushing touchdown or 100 yards rushing in a game in six years, or since the 2015 game in Bloomington. Ohio State has scored 20-or-more points in 70 consecutive games, which last week passed Oklahoma for the FBS record.

Michigan hosts Nebraska on Saturday. Michigan has achieved its second 9-0 start under head coach Jim Harbaugh. The Wolverines lead the nation in rushing defense and list fourth in rushing offense to go along with top rankings in 16 categories. U-M has the No. 3-ranked scoring defense and No. 5-ranked scoring offense in the country.  Blake Corum ranks fourth in the country in rushing yards, 27th in yards per carry and first in total touchdowns.
 
 

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