#12 Oklahoma State vs #25 Texas

#12 Oklahoma State vs #25 Texas | NCAAF Betting Analysis & Prediction

The game of the day from the Big 12 features surprising unbeaten and 12th ranked Oklahoma State as an NCAAF betting underdog at No. 25 and two-loss Texas on Saturday. If the Horns lose, they can forget about reaching the conference title game.

How to Bet Oklahoma State at Texas NCAA Football Odds & TV Info

  • When: Saturday, noon ET
  • Where: DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
  • TV: Fox
  • Stream: Fox Sports Go
  • Radio: Tunein.com
  • Opening NCAAF Lines: Texas -5.5 (total 60)

Last Season

The Cowboys lost 41-34 in OT at home to Texas last season. OSU QB Spencer Sanders threw for a career-high 400 yards and four touchdowns, but committed three of the Cowboys’ four turnovers. Sam Ehlinger threw a 15-yard touchdown pass to Joshua Moore in overtime and Joseph Ossai sealed the victory by sacking Sanders. OSU outgained Texas 530 yards to 287, but the four turnovers were a killer. The Longhorns hold a 26-9 advantage in the series over the Cowboys, including a 15-6 mark in Austin. After Texas won 12-straight meetings from 1998-2009, the Cowboys have won seven of the last 11 contests.

Why Bet on Oklahoma State?

The No. 12 Cowboys (5-0) have been off since a 24-14 win over Baylor on Oct. 2. Jaylen Warren ran for 125 yards and two touchdowns, while Spencer Sanders passed for 182 yards and ran for 76, but he helped Baylor stay in the game by throwing three interceptions. Tay Martin caught seven passes for 108 yards for the Cowboys.

In the last three games, Warren has been central to OSU’s offensive gameplan, logging 95 carries (32 against Boise State, 27 against Kansas State and 36 against Baylor). Sanders is one of just nine FBS players averaging more than 195 passing yards and more than 45 rushing yards per game in 2021. He also ranks second in the Big 12 and No. 21 in the FBS with an average of 13.95 passing yards per completion.

The Oklahoma State defense forced Baylor to punt on each of its first eight drives. The Bears were 0-for-6 on third down in the first half and had only six rushing yards before halftime. The Cowboys limited Baylor to 99 yards of total offense in the first half. It marked the fourth straight game where OSU allowed less than 100 yards of offense in a half. OSU has held 14 of its past 16 Big 12 opponents under their season scoring average.

Oklahoma State was without a pair of notable players – defensive end Brock Martin and running back LD Brown were both out due to injury. Not clear on their status for this one yet. Okie State has won 75 consecutive games when holding its opponent to fewer than 20 points, dating back to Sept. 13, 2003  – the longest active stretch of time in the FBS and longest since at least 1980.

The Longhorns represent the third straight AP-ranked opponent for the Cowboys. A win over UT would mark the first time in school history OSU has beaten AP-ranked opponents in three consecutive games. The last time OSU faced three consecutive AP-ranked opponents was from October-November of 2017 when it played No. 22 West Virginia, No. 8 Oklahoma and No. 24 Iowa State.

Why Bet on Texas?

The Horns (4-2) blew a 28-7 first-quarter lead last Saturday and lost 55-48 to No. 6 Oklahoma in the highest-scoring game of 117 meetings in a series that will soon move to the Southeastern Conference. The Longhorns, who had won three in a row since a loss to future SEC foe Arkansas in Week 2, had never lost when scoring at least 48 points. They gave up 662 total yards, and gained 516.

QB Casey Thompson completed 20-of-34 passes for 388 yards and five touchdowns. He established career-bests for passing yards, completions and attempts, while tying his career high for touchdown passes. Thompson passed for four touchdowns in the first half, the second time he has had four passing TDs in a half, last accomplished in the second half against Colorado in the 2020 Alamo Bowl.

Thompson is leading the Big 12 in multiple categories, including passing efficiency (187.4), passing touchdowns (14), passing yards per completion (14.8), points responsible for (102), points per game (17.0) and yards per pass attempt (9.95).

Xavier Worthy had nine receptions for 261 yards and two touchdowns. His 261 receiving yards were the second-most by a Longhorn in program history and the most-ever for a freshman. His two touchdowns brought his season total to six, tied for second among freshman in UT history. Bijan Robinson rushed 20 times for 147 yards (6.8 ypc) and one touchdown. Over his last 10 games, Robinson has totaled 1,311 on 172 carries (7.6 ypc) with 12 touchdowns, while hauling in 19 receptions for 298 yards (15.7 ypc) and scoring four touchdowns.

Fellow starting receiver Jordan Whittington was hurt in the fourth quarter of the Red River Showdown and will not play for a while. Junior Marcus Washington is slated to get the start in place of Whittington, while Kelvontay Dixon and Al’Vonte Woodard are also expected to see time. Pass-rusher Jacoby Jones also will miss a while following an injury vs. OU. Former five-star Alfred Collins will be the one to replace him.

UT has scored 32 or more points in five of six games this season and in seven of the last eight games overall. Saturday’s game will be Texas’ third against a ranked opponent this season with the Longhorns holding a 1-1 record in the previous games.

Game Trends

  • Cowboys are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog.
  • Cowboys are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 road games.
  • Cowboys are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games in October.
  • Longhorns are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
  • Longhorns are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
  • Road team is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 meetings.

Expert Prediction

  • Texas 30, Oklahoma State 27

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