Oregon vs. Iowa State Fiesta Bowl : College Football Betting Preview

It’s a matchup of two of the rising superstar coaches in college football when Mario Cristobal leads No. 25 Oregon of the Pac-12 against Matt Campbell and No. 10 Iowa State of the Big 12 in Saturday’s Fiesta Bowl, with the Cyclones favored on the NCAAF odds. Both Cristobal and Campbell were rumored for the Auburn job but both stayed put for now.

How to Bet Oregon vs. Iowa State NCAA Football Odds & TV Info

When: Saturday, 4 PM ET
Where: State Farm Stadium, Glendale
TV: ESPN
Stream: ESPN app
Radio: Tunein.com
Opening NCAAF Lines: Iowa State -4 (total 58)

Series History

It’s the first-ever meeting between the schools, although they both have starting QBs from Arizona: Tyler Shough for Oregon and Brock Purdy for Iowa State. It’s the first-ever Fiesta Bowl for Iowa State. Oregon makes its third trip to the Fiesta Bowl, with a 2-0 record, defeating Colorado in 2002 and Kansas State in 2013.

Why Bet on Oregon?

Oregon (4-2) originally didn’t qualify for the Pac-12 title game and the Ducks may have skipped a bowl altogether. However, when Washington had to pull out of that game, Oregon stepped in and upset USC 31-24 to earn a New Year’s Six bowl spot. The victory came one day after head coach Mario Cristobal signed a contract extension and two days after the program signed the highest-rated recruiting class in its history.

Quarterbacks Tyler Shough and Anthony Brown each threw two touchdown passes, but it was the UO defense that was brilliant. Game MVP Kayvon Thibodeaux hounded USC quarterback Kedon Slovis all night, and helped the Ducks limit the Trojans to 38 rushing yards. Nickel Jamal Hill had two interceptions, the second with 2:49 left in the game to end USC’s comeback bid.

The Ducks threw for just 108 yards, with Shough and Brown sharing time. Oregon was without two-time 1,000-yard rusher CJ Verdell due to injury. He hopes to play in this game. Verdell has rushed for 285 yards and three touchdowns on 65 carries, while also catching nine passes for another 86 yards.

This could be the last game at Oregon for defensive coordinator Andy Avalos as he is in the running for the Boise State head coaching job. Avalos was a member of the Boise State coaching staff from 2012-2019, serving as linebackers coach and then defensive coordinator before moving on to Oregon. The Ducks are second nationally with 9.15 points per game off turnovers in their last two seasons under Avalos.

The Ducks are one of six FBS programs to earn a spot in a New Year’s Six bowl game each of the last two years and are in search of their fifth consecutive win over a ranked opponent. The Fiesta Bowl marks the 15th time in the last 16 years that Oregon has advanced to a bowl game.

The Ducks hold a 15-18 all-time record in bowl games. Oregon is one of 14 FBS programs that has won a bowl game each of the last two seasons and is 4-2 all-time against current Big 12 programs in bowl games.

Why Bet on Iowa State?

The Cyclones (8-3) were Big 12 regular-season champions but lost in the conference title game 27-21 to Oklahoma. Big 12 rushing leader Breece Hall ran for two touchdowns for the Cyclones in the second half, when Oklahoma punted on its first five drives before Gabe Brkic’s 32-yard field goal with 2:01 left. The Sooners finally clinched the game when Iowa State quarterback Brock Purdy was under pressure and threw his third interception, a pass picked off by Tre Brown inside the 10.

Standout defensive back Isheem Young was ejected after a questionable targeting call in the opening minute, and the Cyclones later didn’t get a fourth-down call when trying to draw Oklahoma offside even when two Sooners appeared to jump over the line.

Purdy, the third-year starting quarterback, finished 27-of-40 for 322 yards. It was his 12th career 300-yard game. He now has 10 consecutive games with a touchdown pass (tied for second in school history) and has 2,937 yards of total offense this season, good for sixth on the ISU single-season chart. Purdy has been responsible for 22 touchdowns this season (18 pass, 4 rush), which is tied for fourth-most at ISU.

Hall was held to a season-low 79 yards on 23 carries. He averaged 135.7 yards per game during the regular season, with 139 against the Sooners in October. Hall does have 11 consecutive games with a rushing touchdown (school record) and 19 rushing touchdowns this season (tied for second).
ISU’s 8-3mark ties for the school record for 11 games (five times previously: 1971, 1976, 1977, 1978, 2000). Iowa State is now 7-19 under Matt Campbell when trailing at halftime, and 5-22 when trailing after three quarters. ISU is 0-4 under Campbell with a turnover margin of minus-3 or worse.

Iowa State is 4-11 all-time in bowl games, but has a 2-0 mark in bowl games played in Arizona, defeating Pittsburgh (2000 Insight.com Bowl) and Minnesota (2009 Insight Bowl).

Game Trends

Ducks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Bowl games.
Ducks are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games following a ATS win.
Ducks are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 non-conference games.
Cyclones are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games following a straight up loss.
Cyclones are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games.
Cyclones are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 bowl games.

Expert College Football Prediction

Iowa State 28, Oregon 26

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