Two of the most successful college football programs this past season step onto the turf at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans on Saturday night in the 2022 Sugar Bowl. The Baylor Bears won the Big 12 while the Mississippi Rebels finished third in the vaunted SEC. Can Ole Miss end their season with a big bowl victory? Or will Baylor punctuate a dream season? Check out College Football Bowl odds, analysis, and a free pick for Baylor versus Mississippi.
NCAAF Betting Analysis for Baylor Bears Vs Ole Miss Rebels
Allstate Sugar Bowl Odds | Baylor vs Ole Miss Betting Preview
- When: Saturday, Jan. 1 at 8:45 pm ET
- Where: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA
- TV / Streaming: ESPN / ESPN+
- ATS Odds: Mississippi -1
- Moneyline Odds: Baylor +105 / Ole Miss -125
- Over/Under Odds: 55 ½
Why bet on Baylor versus Ole Miss?
Coach Dave Aranda has developed a college football program that does everything well. On offense, the Bears average close to 431 yards per while scoring 32.5 each game. On defense, the Bears hold teams to less than 20 points on average. If Baylor must win a shootout, the Bears can. If Baylor must win a throw down defensive battle, they can do that as well.
Baylor Bears Offensive Averages
- Total Yards: 430.9
- Passing Yards: 216.0
- Rushing Yards: 214.9
- Points Scored: 32.5
- Turnovers: 8
Baylor Bears Defensive Averages
- Total Yards: 350.0
- Passing Yards: 231.2
- Rushing Yards: 118.8
- Points Scored: 19.2
- Takeaways: 16
Why bet on Ole Miss versus Baylor?
Mississippi fields one of the top five most effective offenses in college football. The Rebels average a ridiculous 506.6 yards per game. Ole Miss scores an average of 36 in each matchup. The Rebels’ offense starts with fantastic quarterback Matt Corral. Ole Miss’ gunslinger is one of the few signal-callers who can beat you with pinpoint accurate passes and his legs.
Ole Miss Rebels Offensive Averages
- Total Yards: 506.6
- Passing Yards: 281.9
- Rushing Yards: 224.7
- Points Scored: 35.9
- Turnovers: 4
Ole Miss Rebels Defensive Averages
- Total Yards: 428.8
- Passing Yards: 245.8
- Rushing Yards: 183.0
- Points Scored: 25.0
- Takeaways: 10
Relevant Trends for Baylor Bears vs Ole Miss Rebels
- Bears are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games
- Baylor is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games
- Under is 4-0 in the Bears’ last 4 games
- Rebels are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 bowl games
- Ole Miss is 5-1 ATS versus a team with a winning record
- Under is 7-0 in the Rebels’ last 7 games
Sugar Bowl Final Betting Prediction
At first glance, it looks as if the Baylor Bears should win this. Baylor sends a balanced offensive attack and strong defense to the field.
But a deep dive reveals that the Bears, although a great football team, haven’t come close to facing a quarterback like Corral. In fact, the last time Baylor took on a dual-threat quarterback, TCU upset them 30-28.
In that game, Horned Frogs QB Chandler Morris threw for 461 yards and a couple of touchdowns. Morris rushed for 70 yards and a TD.
On Saturday night, Baylor faces a quarterback much more capable of completing passes and rushing for yards than Morris. The Bears will struggle to keep Corral under wraps, which is the reason Ole Miss is the play. Corral should be so difficult to handle that the spread makes the Rebels an overlay.
Sugar Bowl Pick: Mississippi Rebels