The final Kentucky Derby prep of the year is in the books. From now until the first Saturday in May, trainers throughout North America will prepare their Derby qualifying three-year-olds to take part in the United States’ most popular horse race. Check out a Kentucky Derby odds update and an odds analysis.
Kentucky Derby Tuesday: Updated Odds After the Final Derby Prep
2023 Kentucky Derby Race Info:
When: Saturday, May 6, 2023
Where: Churchill Downs, Louisville, KY
Distance & Surface: 1 ¼ miles on dirt
Kentucky Derby Tuesday: Favorites, Value Plays, and Top Long Shots
Among Forte, Practical Move, and Tapit Trice, which equine has the best shot of winning the 2023 Kentucky Derby?
Undefeated Forte has the look of a champion. But there are questions. First, the Todd Pletcher monster may have peaked in the Florida Derby. Second, Forte may not get the ideal trip.
Practical Move has the right running style, but he may not want the distance. The extra 1/8 miles of the Kentucky Derby means the Tim Yakteen runner must fight harder than he ever has in a race.
That leaves us with Tapit Trice. Another Todd Pletcher trained three-year-old, Tapit Trice has all the elements to win the Kentucky Derby. If you’re looking to back one of the sub +1000 choices, Tapit Trice is the pick.
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Which horse offering +1200 to +1500 odds offers the most value to win the Run for the Roses?
All four: Derma Sotogake, Verifying, Kingsbarns, and Angel of Empire offer value to win the roses. Among the four, Angel of Empire is the top overlay.
The Brad Cox trained runner has an electrifying turn of foot. When horses win with an amazing turn of foot, speed ratings don’t mean as much because jockeys unleash the turn of foot depending on the pace. If the pace is slow, the speed rating will be low, but if the pace is fast, the speed rating will be high
Also, Derma Sotogake, Verifying, Practical Joke, and Kingsbarns all run near the lead. So those three could set it up for Angel of Empire.
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Which potential runners at odds of +2000 to +3500 are overlays to win on the first Saturday in May?
Two Phil’s shouldn’t offer +2200 odds. Hard Spun sired the Larry Rivelli trained runner. Hard Spun finished second behind Street Sense in the 2007 Kentucky Derby.
Two Phil’s has the breeding to get the distance. Almost as important? He ran great over artificial after running terrific over dirt. The horse is a tough runner. The +2200 odds makes Two Phil’s an overlay.
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What are the best long shot potential plays at odds of +3800 or above to win the Triple Crown’s first leg?
Lord Miles, the Wood Memorial winner, and Disarm are two runners that could improve off their last preps. Both will have to improve big time, but it could happen.
Disarm finished third in the Lexington Stakes. The Gun Runner sired colt hails from the Steve Asmussen barn. That alone makes Disarm a horse that we must respect.
Lord Miles beat an okay field in the Wood. Curlin sired Lord Miles. So the 1 ¼ distance will be no issue and if Miles improves, who knows? Putting a few bucks on both Disarm and Lord Miles at their current future odds makes sense.
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Updated Kentucky Derby Odds Top 20
- Forte +200
- Tapit Trice +600
- Practical Move +800
- Derma Sotogake +1200
- Verifying +1200
- Kingsbarns +1400
- Angel of Empire +1500
- Mage +2000
- Two Phil’s +2200
- Confidence Game +2500
- Hit Show +2800
- Blazing Sevens +2800
- Reincarnate +3500
- Skinner +3800
- Lord Miles +4000
- Disarm +4000
- Rocket Can +4000
- Raise Can +4000
- Cyclone Mischief +5000
- Jace’s Road +5000
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Kentucky Derby | Grade I race
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"The Run for the Roses"
Race information
Race type | Thoroughbred |
---|---|
Distance | 1+1⁄4 miles (10 furlongs; 2 km) |
Record | 1:59.40, Secretariat (1973,1+1⁄4 miles) 2:34.50, Spokane (1889,1+1⁄2 miles) |
Surface | Dirt |
Track | Left-handed |
Qualification | 3-year-old |
Weight | Colt/Gelding: 126 lbs (57.2 kg) Filly: 121 lb (55 kg) |
Purse | US$3 million 1st: $1,860,000 |
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