LA Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers

LA Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers | MLB Betting Odds

Written by on April 30, 2021

No question that the marquee pitching matchup around Major League Baseball on Thursday features reigning NL Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer of the Dodgers against one of the NL’s most underrated pitchers in the Brewers’ Freddy Peralta. L.A. is favored on the MLB odds for the series opener in Milwaukee.

How to Bet Dodgers at Brewers MLB Odds & TV Info

  • When: Tuesday, 7:40 PM ET
  • Where: American Family Field
  • Probable pitchers (away/home): Trevor Bauer/Freddy Peralta
  • TV: MLB Network; MLB Extra Innings

Why Bet on LA Dodgers?

Former NL MVP Cody Bellinger is on his way to the Dodgers’ alternate training site to resume taking live at-bats. Bellinger has been sidelined since April 5 with a hairline fracture in his left fibula and is still limited to certain less-intensive baseball activities. He obviously won’t play in this series.

Hard-throwing reliever Joe Kelly could be an option for the Dodgers at some point during their upcoming road trip, per manager Dave Roberts. Kelly landed on the injured list before the start of the regular season due to right shoulder inflammation, but he’s been pitching at the Dodgers’ alternate training site in Arizona. Once activated, he could take on a significant role in the injury-depleted Dodgers bullpen.

It’s reigning NL Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer on the mound here. He officially got his award earlier this week when his former Reds team was in Los Angeles. Bauer was the first Reds pitcher to ever win the Cy Young Award from the Baseball Writers’ Association of America.

For 10 years, Bauer kept a picture of Jim Palmer’s Cy Young Award as the background on his cell phone as a form of subconscious motivation.

“Now I have one that says Trevor Bauer on it and not Jim Palmer,” Bauer said. “It’s pretty cool. Yeah, 10 years of hard work and studying and time. A lot of really bad games, a lot of tough learning experiences, but when I go take a picture of it here in a second and change my phone background, it’ll be a pretty cool moment.”

Bauer pitched most recently last Saturday vs. San Diego and got the win, throwing six innings and allowing three runs (two earned) on five hits and no walks while striking out nine. Bauer was burned by a pair of solo home runs off the bat of Fernando Tatis, but he otherwise held San Diego in check.

Over his last three games, Bauer is 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA with 25 strikeouts in 19 innings. Opponents hit .138 off Bauer in those three games. Bauer racked up 20 swinging strikes against the Padres and has 45 Ks across 32.0 innings. He has gone at least six innings in each of his five outings this season.

Bauer has three career starts against the Brewers, all of which came last season as a member of the Reds. He went 2-1 with a 2.66 ERA (6 ER/20.1 IP), while striking out 32 against just four walks and posted a 0.89 WHIP.

Why Bet on Milwaukee?

The Brewers remain without their former NL MVP in Christian Yelich due to a back problem and he will miss this game it not series. Yelich’s MRI revealed no structural damage according to manager Craig Counsell, who said that the team was able to rule out “anything significant” in terms of the injury. Yelich has dealt with back issues regularly during the course of his career.

Fellow outfielder Lorenzo Cain is on the injured list and will not play in this series. Struggling through his first week of games before going on the injured list, Cain’s .637 OPS and 70 OPS+ would mark the lowest of his career in as many at-bats. Utility infielder Daniel Robertson has landed on the concussion injured list.

Travis Shaw (16) needs 3 RBI to tie the franchise record for most RBI as a third baseman through April. Shaw made the team as a non-roster invitee after signing as a free agent on 2/23.

It’s Freddy Peralta (2-0, 2.45) on the mound. Peralta allowed two runs on five hits over four innings last Saturday while collecting seven strikeouts in a no-decision against the Cubs. Peralta left after 81 pitches, 52 of which were strikes, but was pinch-hit for with a runner in scoring position in the fifth inning. The 24-year-old earned a 50 percent whiff rate of his slider during the game with a 37 percent CSW (called strikes plus whiffs).

Peralta has struck out at least six batters in all five of his starts but has lasted longer than five innings only once. Peralta continues to push Corbin Burnes for the best strikeout rate among Brewers starters, with Burnes at 45.5 percent and Peralta at 41.8 percent. Both rank among the Top 5 MLB starters in that category. Opponents are batting .169 (13-for-77, 2hr) off Peralta this year.

Peralta’s only career regular-season appearance vs. Los Angeles came in relief on 7/30/18 at Dodger Stadium (4ip, 3h, 1r, 1er, 4bb, 6k, 1hbp). He also faced the Dodgers in the postseason in 2018 (NLCS) and 2020 (NL Wild Card Series), making 2 relief appearances.

Game Trends

  • Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Milwaukee.
  • Dodgers are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Milwaukee.
  • Dodgers are 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
  • Under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings.

Expert Prediction

  • Dodgers 3, Brewers 1

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