Miami vs Cincinnati Odds, Picks & Predictions MLB

Miami vs Cincinnati | Odds, Picks & Predictions MLB

Written by on July 27, 2022

Wednesday night is likely to be the final start in a Reds uniform for All-Star pitcher Luis Castillo as he is heavily expected to be dealt to a contender by the Aug. 2 deadline. Cincinnati is favored on the MLB odds behind Castillo vs. visiting Miami.

How to Bet Marlins at Reds MLB Odds & TV Info

Why Bet on Miami?

Awful news for the Marlins over the weekend that All-Star second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. likely will be out through the end of August. Tests revealed Chisholm has a stress reaction in his lower back. He is expected to miss six weeks. He has been on the injured list since June 29 with what was called a right lower back strain. Chisholm is hitting .254 with 14 home runs, 45 RBI and 12 stolen bases in 60 games. He is one of two Miami players to accrue double digits in stolen bases with 12, trailing only Jon Berti (28), who is also on the injured list with a left groin strain.

“He was really pushing hard to get to that All-Star Game, so we knew there had to be something more seriously wrong when he couldn’t make it,” Marlins manager Don Mattingly said. “Now, it’s time to take the steps for him to get it right and go through that process. You feel bad for Jazz. He’s having a great year.”

With Chisholm and Berti on the IL, Joey Wendle has slotted in to take over the top-of-the-lineup duties in solid fashion. But it’s a brutal injury for a Marlins team that is on the fringe of the National League Wild Card race (six games back) and determining whether to add some veteran pieces or sell off short-term assets with the trade deadline looming.

Braxton Garrett (2-3) gets the call on the mound. Garrett allowed one run on two hits and a walk over six innings last Friday, striking out seven and earning a win over Pittsburgh. The only damage against Garrett was a solo home run by Jason Delay in the third frame. His last two starts have come against the Pirates; he’s combined to strike out 18 batters while allowing just one run over 12 innings in those outings. The 24-year-old southpaw now owns a 3.42 ERA with a 47:11 K:BB through nine starts this season.

Garrett’s slower stuff has seen big changes in their movement this year. The curveball (10.3%) and changeup (8.1%) are both lightly thrown, with the latter being used almost exclusively vs right-handers. But both are also, in addition to being thrown 1-2 mph faster, getting a lot more movement compared to last season.  The faster curveball has tightened up considerably, losing five inches of drop but has a lot more break, increasing from 8 inches to 11.9 inches. That extra almost four inches takes it from being 4% below average in 2021 to 41% above average this season.

Why Bet on Cincinnati?

The Reds have played the sixth-toughest schedule in the Major Leagues. In games already played, their opponents have posted a winning percentage of .515. The winning percentage for the teams remaining on the Reds’ schedule is .475, the sixth-easiest schedule in the majors.

Donovan Solano is hitting .476 with 2 outs this season and .354 (62-175) with 2 outs over the last 3 seasons. He is the second-highest batting average with 2 outs for any player beginning in 2000 (minimum 100 at-bats), behind only Fernando Tatis Jr. (.361).

Catcher Garcia (finger/elbow) was transferred from the COVID-19-related injured list to the 10-day injured list Tuesday. Garcia was placed on the COVID-19 IL on July 12, but he will now return to 10-day IL as he nurses an elbow injury and a finger issue that landed him on the IL on July 7.

It’s All-Star right-hander Luis Castillo (3-4) likely in his final start for Cincinnati. His last official start was on July 14 when Castillo struck out eight while allowing one run in seven innings against the Yankees. He did walk four but he allowed only a double and a single over the seven innings and he lowered his ERA to 2.77. He’s given up three runs over 27 innings in his last four starts. In his last 11 starts beginning 5/20, Castillo has gone 3-3 with a 2.37 ERA and all 9 of his quality starts (68.1ip, 50h, 18er, 23bb, 75k, 3hr, .198baa).

Castillo is the most prominent starter likely on the pre-deadline trade market, and given the Reds’ non-contending status or likelihood of contending in the near future, is a good bet to get dealt in the next week. Castillo is making $7.35 million this season and has one more year of arbitration eligibility remaining. He is 4-1 with a 1.73 ERA in 36.1 career innings vs. Miami.

Game Trends

  • Marlins are 8-2 in their last 10 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Marlins are 7-2 in their last 9 during game 3 of a series.
  • Reds are 4-1 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series.
  • Reds are 3-7 in their last 10 games vs. a left-handed starter.
  • Marlins are 3-12 in the last 15 meetings.

Expert Prediction

  • Reds 6, Marlins 2
 
 

MLB Betting Center



Get your Updated MLB Betting Odds here!