Milwaukee vs San Francisco | 2022 MLB Expert Betting Analysis

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No question the top pitching matchup around Major League Baseball on Thursday is between the Brewers and Giants from San Francisco as Cy Young candidates Corbin Burnes (the 2021 winner) and Carlos Rodon face off. The total is only 6.5 runs on the MLB odds.

How to Bet Brewers at Giants MLB Odds & TV Info

When: Thursday, 9:45 PM ET
Where: Oracle Park
Probable pitchers (away/home): Corbin Burnes/Carlos Rodon
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/gameday audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/
Opening MLB Lines: Brewers -110, Giants +100 (total 6.5)

Why Bet on Milwaukee?

Before Wednesday’s game, the Brewers optioned infielder Keston Hiura to Triple-A Nashville in a bit of a surprise as he had been in a groove offensively in July and holds a respectable .805 OPS over 43 total major league games this year. To replace him, the team recalled Sadzeck from Triple-A. Sadzeck is back in the majors for the first time since 2019 after working to a dominant 0.96 ERA with 35 strikeouts through 28 innings this season at the Triple-A level.

Will former NL MVP Christian Yelich start Thursday? He has missed the past two games with back issues and battled back trouble throughout much of his disappointing 2021 season, though this ailment is said to be in a different area. There’s talk Yelich might also sit Thursday with the travel and then return Friday.

Setup man Devin Williams is unscored upon in his last 25 outings (23.2 innings) and batters are hitting just .097 off him in that stretch. Williams, who is not an All-Star, leads the majors in holds (24) and ranks third among MLB relievers in K/9IP (14.97).

It’s All-Star right-hander Corbin Burnes on the mound here — Burnes is just the third starting pitcher in franchise history to have multiple All-Star Game selections, joining Brandon Woodruff (2) and Ben Sheets (4). Burnes (7-4, 2.20 ERA) shutout the Cubs for seven innings and struck out 10 in a no-decision last Wednesday. It was the fifth time this year that Burnes has pitched at least 6 2/3 scoreless innings. Alas, he’s won just two of those.

Burnes is 4-0 with a 1.60 ERA over his last 5 starts (33.2ip, 16h, 6r, 6er, 9bb, 42k, 3hr). The team is 10-7 in his starts. He has 13 quality starts, including 5 in a row. Opponents are batting .182 (69-for-380, 12hr) off him this year.

Burnes is 2-1 with a 2.92 ERA in 10 career games/3 starts against the Giants (24.2ip, 8er). He had a no decision against San Francisco on 4/25 in Milwaukee (6.2ip, 2h, 0r, 2bb, 11k, 1hbp).

Why Bet on San Francisco?

The Giants have not dropped below .500 since April 6, 2021 when they were 2-3. The team’s Giants 276-consecutive days with a .500+ win percentage (only counting days during MLB regular season) is the longest active streak in the Majors and the longest for the franchise since going 316-consecutive days at .500 or better from May 27, 2009 to October 3, 2010.

Giants manager Gabe Kapler said Brandon Belt has been dealing with ongoing swelling in his right knee. That’s part of the reason why Belt was at DH on Tuesday and is in that spot again Wednesday. The veteran first baseman might get his knee drained during the All-Star break.

Outfielder Joc Pederson said he has declined an invitation to the 2022 Home Run Derby. Pederson told reporters that he felt sore for two days the last time he participated in the event and that he’s been battling some minor neck and back issues over the last few weeks. Barry Bonds remains the last Giants player to participate in a Home Run Derby.

Third baseman Evan Longoria (oblique) is on track to begin a rehab assignment Thursday and could be reinstated from the 10-day injured list immediately after the All-Star break.

It’s All-Star lefty Carlos Rodon (8-5) on the mound here. He was added to the National League roster to replace Brewers closer Josh Hader. Rodon whiffed 12 while going all nine innings in a 3-1 victory last Saturday over the Padres. Rodon allowed a run in the second inning on a sac fly, and from that point on the southpaw was dominant. It was the second complete game he’s thrown in the last two years, with the other being his no-hitter while a member of the White Sox.

The 29-year-old southpaw has been brilliant this season in his Giants debut, compiling a sparkling 2.70 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 124/32 K/BB ratio across 100 innings (17 starts). Rodon hasn’t allowed a homer in 44.0 innings dating to June 7 (6th-longest active streak in MLB).