NY Mets vs Atlanta Braves MLB Lines and Game Preview

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It’s an event these days anytime that Mets ace and NL Cy Young and MVP betting favorite Jacob deGrom takes the mound, and he’s scheduled to in a series finale at the Atlanta Braves on Thursday. The Mets are naturally favored on the MLB odds.

How to Bet Mets at Braves MLB Odds & TV Info

When: Thursday, 7:20 PM ET
Where: Truist Park
Probable pitchers (away/home): Jacob deGrom/Ian Anderson
TV: MLB Extra Innings

Why Bet on NY Mets?

New York remains without valuable infielder Jonathan Villar, who can fill in just about everywhere. He was to begin a rehab assignment Wednesday. He’s dealing with a calf strain. Signed by the Mets to a one-year deal in the offseason to primarily come off the bench, Villar has taken a prominent starting role for much of the season. He’s batting .246/.333/.410 with 6 home runs and 8 stolen bases in 61 games.

Third baseman JD Davis and outfielder Brandon Nimmo also are on the IL. Davis (finger) began a rehab assignment Wednesday and is eligible to return to the Mets on Thursday but his activation will likely come shortly after that. The 28-year-old was red hot before the injury, batting .390/.479/.610 over 48 plate appearances. Nimmo was to be activated on Tuesday but had a setback – it could come any day now. He hasn’t played since early May due to a left index finger injury.

It’s the best pitcher in baseball and NL MVP and Cy Young candidate Jacob deGrom (7-2) on the mound. deGrom allowed two runs on three hits and a walk over six innings on Saturday with five strikeouts but was not involved in the decision as the Mets defeated the Phillies 4-3.

It was actually deGrom’s worst outing of the season as he hadn’t allowed two earned runs since September 26, 2020. DeGrom tossed 53 percent sliders during the contest, generating a 54 percent whiff rate. The Mets ace now carries a 0.69 ERA, which is the second-lowest mark through 13 starts since earned runs became an official stat in 1913 (Dutch Leonard 0.68, 1914).

DeGrom’s 13 consecutive starts with two earned runs or fewer allowed to start the season is tied for the sixth-longest such streak since earned became official in 1913. He has allowed three hits or fewer in 11 straight starts, the longest streak ever by a non-opener starting pitcher and has allowed 30 hits in 78.0 innings this year. Going back to last season, he has not allowed more than five hits in 18 consecutive starts, the second-longest streak all-time (Tony Cingrani allowed five hits or fewer in each of his first 22 career starts).

He won his lone start vs. Atlanta this year, shutting out the Braves over five innings on June 21. Batting-wise, deGrom has hit safely in 10 of his 13 starts this season and is hitting .414 (12-29) this year.

Why Bet on Atlanta?

One pleasant surprise early this season for Atlanta was Pablo Sandoval, who largely pinch-hit but would DH sometimes when the Braves were in an American League park. However, Kung Fu Panda is in a slump, going 0-for-9 with a walk in his last 10 pinch-hitting assignments dating back to June 13. On the season, Sandoval has a .210/.310/.403 slash line with four homers and 10 RBI in 71 plate appearances.

One huge issue on the Braves is their bullpen. The club exited Spring Training with a heavily left-handed relief corps, but even high-leverage arms have been largely unstable. AJ Minter had an erratic June, posting a 5.79 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over 9.1 innings. Minter has allowed multiple hits in five of his last eight outings.

“I think always with him, it’s about command and locating his pitches, getting them where he wants them,” manager Brian Snitker said. “Getting that cutter where he wants it to go. He threw some change-ups the other day. Just executing pitches, pretty much. He’s throwing good, he’s just not executing pitches like you’d wish he would.”

Tyler Matzek has walked five over his last two appearances. The overall ERA of the bullpen is 4.80.

It’s Ian Anderson (5-4) starting Thursday. Anderson logged a quality start in Saturday’s loss to the Reds, allowing three runs on five hits over his six innings. He struck out nine while walking only one batter. Anderson served up a solo homer to Jesse Winker in the opening inning, then allowed a pair of runs in the third inning on run-scoring hits by Nick Castellanos and Joey Votto. Anderson registered 16 swings and misses and posting a CSW of 30 percent. He has a 3.42 ERA and 1.18 WHIP on the season.

So far, Ian Anderson’s sophomore effort hasn’t quite been as good as his stellar rookie campaign (1.1 fWAR in 32 1⁄3 innings), but it’s been pretty good nonetheless (1.7 fWAR in 81 2⁄3 innings). Anderson had a terrific low HR/FB rate in 2020, but it’s crept upward this year (from 4.5 percent to 11.1 percent).

Anderson is 1-1 vs. the Mets this year, allowing four runs over 9.1 innings with 11 strikeouts.

Game Trends

Mets are 8-3 in their last 11 Thursday games.
Mets are 5-2 in their last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Braves are 5-11 in their last 16 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Braves are 3-7 in their last 10 vs. National League East.
Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Atlanta.