Toronto vs Tampa Bay | MLB Expert Betting Analysis

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Neither the Toronto Blue Jays nor the Tampa Bay Rays are going to catch the New York Yankees in the AL East Division but both are playing for Wild-Card spots as they open a series in St. Petersburg on Tuesday. The Jays are favored on the MLB odds.

How to Bet Blue Jays at Rays MLB Odds & TV Info

When: Tuesday, 7:10 PM ET
Where: Tropicana Field
Probable pitchers (away/home): Kevin Gausman/Drew Rasmussen
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/gameday audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/
Opening MLB Lines: Blue Jays -140, Rays +130 (total 7)

Why Bet on Toronto?

Expect the Blue Jays to make at least one move ahead of Tuesday’s Trade Deadline. They are known to be in the mix to acquire left-hander José Quintana from the Pirates. The Yankees and White Sox are also known to have interest in the 33-year-old southpaw. Quintana has had a bounce-back season for the Pirates, registering an effective 3.50 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 89/31 K/BB ratio over 103 innings through 20 starts.

Toronto is a season-high-tying 12 games over .500 for the 3rd time this year. The Jays have won 12 of their last 15 games after dropping nine of their previous 10. They are 17-11-4 in series play this year.

On Sunday, Matt Chapman hit his 20^th homer of the season, reaching the 20 mark for the 4th time in his career. He has homered four times in his last four games and his nine dingers in July trailed only Aaron Judge’s 13 for the most in the American League. Chapman has driven in 22 runs since July 1st, the most by a Blue Jay in a single month of July since Josh Donaldson’s 24 RBI in 2015.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is on a 12-game hitting streak and is batting .426 (20-for-47) over that streak with six doubles, a homer, and seven RBIs (1.108 OPS). In July overall, he hit 35-for-103 (.340) with 10 doubles, three home runs, and 17 RBI (.897 OPS). Jordan Romano set a new career high by saving his AL-leading 24th game of the season (23 saves in 2021) Sunday. He retired all three batters he faced while recording a pair of strikeouts on 13 pitches (10 strikes).

It’s Kevin Gausman on the mound here. Gausman (7-8) allowed five runs on eight hits and a walk with six strikeouts in 4.2 innings, taking the loss last Wednesday versus the Cardinals. Gausman had little trouble the first time through the order, but he struggled the second time around and was ultimately chased with two on in the fifth inning. Trevor Richards then allowed a three-run home run to Albert Pujols, which put two more runs on Gausman’s ledger in his fourth start of less than five innings this year. The right-hander has only given up five earned runs twice in 19 starts, and he has a 3.30 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 122:19 K:BB in 103.2 innings overall.

Gausman is 0-1 with a 3.00 ERA in two starts vs. the Rays this year spanning nine innings. He left one very early due to a comebacker to his knee.

Why Bet on Tampa Bay?

The Rays have made two trades in recent days. They landed outfielder David Peralta from Arizona. The lefty hitting Peralta had a .248/.316/.460 batting line with 12 home runs with the Diamondbacks, including a .268/.325/.498 line against right-handed pitchers. The Rays platoon as much as any team in baseball and odds are Peralta won’t face many left-handed pitchers the rest of the season. Peralta made his Rays debut Sunday.

On Monday, the team acquired pitcher Garrett Cleavinger from the Dodgers for outfielder German Tapia. Cleavinger will augment the Rays’ left-handed relief depth over the final two months of the 2022 regular season. The 28-year-old has made just four relief appearances in the majors this season for the Dodgers and compiled a solid 2.79 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 47/17 K/BB ratio across 29 innings at Triple-A Oklahoma City. To make room on the 40-man roster for Cleavinger, the Rays optioned Luke Bard to Triple-A. Bard made eight appearances out of the Tampa Bay bullpen this season and submitted a 1.93 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 8:7 K:BB across 14 innings.

A total of 55 of Tampa Bay’s 101 games this season have been decided by 2 runs (or fewer) and the 55 games of 2 runs (or fewer) are tied for 4th in the majors. The Rays are 28-27 in games decided by 2 runs (or fewer), including 11-15 since June 11 and 18-21 since May 16 after a 10-6 start. The Rays are 8-6 in their extra-inning games this season, including 4-5 in them since May 20 after going 4-1 to start the season. The 14 extra-inning games rank 2nd in the majors behind the Cubs (15).

The Rays have 16 wins this season without the benefit of a home run, T-3rd in the majors behind the Guardians (18) and Orioles (17). Tampa is batting .306 with RISP in the team’s wins and .180 with RISP in the losses.

It’s Drew Rasmussen (6-3) on the mound here. Rasmussen yielded three runs (two earned) on six hits over 4 2/3 innings while taking a no-decision in last Wednesday’s 10-inning win over the Orioles. Rasmussen struck out four and walked one. The Orioles dinged the 27-year-old right-hander for solitary runs in the second, third and fifth innings. Rasmussen has.17 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 70/23 K/BB ratio (17 starts; 82 1/3 innings). He has yielded two or fewer earned runs in four of his last five starts.

Rasmussen is 1-0 with a 1.61 ERA (22.1-IP, 4-ER) in five career appearances (4 starts) against the Blue Jays, including a 2.13 ERA (12.2-IP, 3-ER) in 3 appearances (2 starts) at Tropicana Field. He last faced them on July 2 at Toronto, his first start after a stint on the injured list (hamstring), and allowed 2 runs (1 ER) in 4.2 IP. He allowed a pair of singles to start the 2nd inning, leading to a run after a sacrifice bunt and Matt Chapman sacrifice fly. Rasmussen was a strike away from escaping a 2-on, 2-out jam in the 5th, but was replaced after a passed ball on a full count scored Raimel Tapia (unearned) from third base.