Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat Odds, Predictions in 4th Game of the Eastern Conference Finals

The Miami Heat can become the second No. 8 seed in league history to make the NBA Finals if they beat the Boston Celtics on Tuesday night in Game 4 of the East Finals in south Florida, and the Heat are short favorites on the NBA odds.

 

Celtics vs. Heat, Game 4 | 2023 NBA Expert Analysis

 

How to Bet Boston at Miami NBA Odds & TV Info

When: Tuesday, 8:30 PM ET
Where: Kaseya Center
TV: TNT
Stream: TNT app
Radio: Tunein.com
NBA Odds: Heat -1.5 (total 216)

 

Why Bet on Boston?

The Celtics came out flat in Game 3 and got rolled 128-102 to fall down 3-0 in the series. Boston trailed by as many as 33 in Game 3 — the second-biggest deficit the Celtics faced this season. Boston’s fourth-quarter offense was a major problem in the first two games. It didn’t matter in Game 3. The Heat were up 30 at the end of three. The Celtics look stagnant offensively as Miami is cutting off everything defensively in the series.

Jayson Tatum had just 14 points along with 13 rebounds in 33 minutes. Tatum couldn’t get many shots to fall in the Game 3 loss, and he struggled mightily from long range. He converted only one of seven attempts from beyond the arc and shot an abysmal 30 percent overall.

Jaylen Brown was held to 12 points and six rebounds in 28 minutes. Brown missed all seven of his shots from beyond the arc and was otherwise ineffective during his worst outing in the playoffs. He’s 2-for-20 from deep in the postseason. Payton Pritchard took full advantage of playing the entire fourth quarter of Game 3. Pritchard finished the game with 12 points in 12 minutes, which fell just two shy of the team’s top scoring total by Tatum. Pritchard made five of his eight shots from the field to account for his point total.

During the regular season, Boston had the second-best defensive rating in the league at 110.6 points allowed per 100 possessions. In the conference semifinals against Philadelphia, that number was even better (107.9). However, in this series, their defensive rating has skyrocketed to 124.4 against an offense that ranked dead last in scoring during the regular season.

“I think we’ve just got to be connected more,” said Tatum. “Five guys all on the same page, competing at the same level, talking, and just being there for one another. Every possession is not perfect. You’re going to get beat. Mistakes happen. But we just have to do a better job of being there for one another, having each other’s back, and just being a little bit more connected on defense.”

No NBA team has rallied from a 3-0 deficit to win a series; it’s happened only once in Major League Baseball, when the Red Sox shook off a 19-8 drubbing in Game 3 to win four straight and top the Yankees in that 2004 AL championship series. It has happened a few times in the NHL.

Bet Celtics to Win Today
MyBookie Betting Lines for the Game

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Why Bet on Miami?

The conference finals are all but over after the Heat destroyed Boston in Game 3, 128-102, to take a commanding 3-0 series lead. Miami has now recorded 19 playoff wins against Boston, tying the most victories against any opponent in Heat postseason history. After going 11-for-42 from deep in Game 3, the Celtics are now 31-for-106 (29.2%) from 3 in the series. Miami, on the other hand, shot 57% overall, 54% from 3 and is now shooting 44-for-92 (47.8%) for the series.

Gabe Vincent was electric in Game 3, converting six shots beyond the arc on the way to his best result of the season with 29 points. Kyle Lowry has made solid contributions off the bench and has often outshined Vincent during the playoffs, but Vincent and Duncan Robinson ruled the backcourt in the lopsided romp, totaling 11 threes between them. Vincent also matched Caleb Martin with a team-high 35 minutes on the floor.

After playing seven minutes and going scoreless in Game 1, Robinson has been a solid contributor for the Heat in each of the last two games. He scored 15 points in Game 2 and was even better Sunday night. He had 22 points, the most Robinson has scored in a game during these playoffs and just his third game with 20 or more this season.

The Heat’s bench is averaging 36.1 points, the third-highest average this postseason, and has outscored the opponents bench by +160 in these playoffs, the second-highest bench plus/minus in Heat playoff history during a single postseason.

Jimmy Butler had 16 points, eight rebounds, and six assists. Bam Adebayo added 13 points. The Heat’s defense has held teams to under 50 percent from the field in 12 of their 14 playoff games, including under 40 percent from three-point range 11 times. Miami leads all teams this postseason in deflections (226), loose balls recovered (92) and charges taken (18).

Miami made more than half its 3s in both Game 1 and Game 3, and is now at 47.8 percent overall in this series. No previous team in conference finals history has shot better than 45 percent from distance (minimum 50 attempts). The Heat are also shooting well from 2-point range, and in their 128-102 blowout win in Game 3, they outperformed their expected effective field goal percentage—based on factors like shot location, defender distance, and shooter identity—by 17 percentage points.

Bet Heat to Win Today
MyBookie Betting Lines for the Game

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Game Trends

• Celtics are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS loss.
• Celtics are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss.
• Heat are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up win.
• Heat are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.
• Celtics are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
• Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Miami.

 

Expert Prediction

Heat 107, Celtics 106

 

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