As we head into NBA All-Star Weekend, last year’s Eastern Conference winners, the Miami Heat, made a huge move on the NBA Championship Odds’ board, an Eastern Conference favorite became a title odds underlay, and a team in the West emerged as the conference’s top overlay. Check out the latest NBA news in our weekly update so you can continue betting against their NBA odds.
NBA COVID-19 Update – March 4th Edition
2021 NBA Season
- When: Dec. 22, 2020 – May 16, 2021
2021 NBA Championship Odds
- L.A. Lakers +250
- L.A. Clippers +500
- Milwaukee Bucks +700
- Golden State Warriors +7000
- Boston Celtics +2800
- Brooklyn Nets +300
- Miami Heat +2800
- Toronto Raptors +3500
- Denver Nuggets +2800
- Houston Rockets +40000
- Philadelphia 76ers +1200
- Dallas Mavericks +500
- Portland Trail Blazers +6000
- New Orleans Pelicans +9000
- Utah Jazz +700
- Phoenix Suns +2800
- Oklahoma City Thunder +30000
- Atlanta Hawks +125000
- Chicago Bulls +30000
- Indiana Pacers +5500
- Memphis Grizzlies +12500
- Washington Wizards +15000
- Minnesota Timberwolves +100000
- Orlando Magic +30000
- Sacramento Kings +30000
- San Antonio Spurs +8500
- Cleveland Cavaliers +20000
- Detroit Pistons +100000
- New York Knicks +12500
- Charlotte Hornets +20000
Odds on Miami Heat dive from +4000 to +2800
If the Eastern Conference Playoffs started today, Miami would be the 7-seed. The Heat are 6-4 in their last ten. They’ve got a +1.6 points differential from what they score to what they allow.
We should expect the point differential to increase as the Heat continue to recover from last season’s NBA Title Series. It was obvious that Miami was a tired bunch after the 6-game battle with LeBron, AD, and the Lakers.
Also, the Heat suffered early season injuries that forced them to shelve Goran Dragic and Jimmy Butler. As they’ve become healthier, they’ve won more and more games.
NBA handicappers have noticed. Just over a week ago, Miami was a +4000 choice to win the NBA Title. The odds have dropped to +2800.
Nets officially become an underlay favorite ala the Los Angeles Lakers
Brooklyn’s odds didn’t drop nearly as much as Miami’s. Then again, the Nets were +350 a couple of weeks ago and +330 last week.
Why the love for the Nets? Brooklyn is 9-1 SU in their last 10, but that’s not the real reason. The main reasons why sports bettors are all over the Nets is because they’ve improved on the defensive end and are winning games with Kevin Durant on the bench.
KD won’t return until mid-March, yet the Nets continue to average 121.1 points per and shooting 50% from the field. Brooklyn ranks first in both categories. The Nets rank second in three-point percentage at 40.7%.
The defense ranks twenty-sixth in points allowed. But the differential is over 5 points per game. Also, Brooklyn ranks sixteenth in field goal percentage allowed and thirteenth in three-point percentage allowed.
If the defense improves at all, and if Durant comes back and has no issues folding into the starting lineup, the Nets become the team to beat for the NBA Title. With that being written, they’re not worth backing at +300.
It doesn’t mean the Lakers or Nets won’t win the NBA Championship. By calling both an underlay, we’re saying that right now, at the halfway point of the season, neither offers enough value to constitute a bet.
Sixers top overlay play to win the NBA Title in the East, Suns top overlay in the West
The Philadelphia 76ers are at +1200 to win the NBA Championship. The odds don’t make a ton of sense because the Brooklyn Nets are at +300.
The odds alone make Philadelphia the top Eastern Conference team to win the NBA Title. Neither Milwaukee nor Brooklyn can match up with Joel Embiid.
Over in the Western Conference, the Suns are a great play at +2800. They’re the top first half overlay. As of March 4, the Suns have the second best record in the conference. They’re just 3 games behind Utah.
Phoenix’s point differential, what they score from what they allow, is 6. It’s .4 better than the Clippers and .9 better than the Lakers.
We’ll see what happens in the second-half of the season. But it feels like NBA Title future handicappers have yet to realize how high Phoenix can rise.
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