The Denver Nuggets can reach their first-ever NBA Finals by beating the Los Angeles Lakers in Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals on Monday night, but LA is favored at home to extend the series. Let’s take a look at the following NBA betting analysis and find out whether or not it is worth betting against or in favor of the Lakers for this decisive game.
Nuggets vs. Lakers, Game 4 | 2023 NBA Expert Analysis
How to Bet Denver at Los Angeles NBA Odds & TV Info
When: Monday, 8:30 PM ET
Where: Crypto.com Arena
NBA Odds: Lakers -3.5 (total 224.5)
Why Bet on Denver?
The Nuggets moved one game from their first NBA Finals with a 119-108 upset in LA in Game 3 on Saturday. Jamal Murray had 37 points, seven rebounds and six assists. Murray came out blisteringly hot in the first half, totaling 30 points. He became the eighth player since 1997 to have 30+ points in the first half on the road of a playoff game. It was his third career 30+ point half in the playoffs.
Murray didn’t score a single point in the third quarter as his team held a narrow lead over the Lakers thanks to some strong contributions from Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (17 points) and Bruce Brown (15 points off the bench). The Lakers took the lead midway through the fourth quarter, going up 94-93 with 7:48 to play. Denver went on a 13-0 run after that and closed on a 25-15 run to seal the victory. Murray has now scored at least 30 points in three straight, including 37 in each of the last two. The Nuggets are 11-4 all-time in the postseason when Murray scores 30+ points.
Nikola Jokic had 24 points, eight assists and six rebounds. It was Jokic’s ninth career playoff game on the road with 24+ points, 6+ rebounds and 8+ assists. He made 2+ three-pointers for the eighth time this postseason after making 2+ threes in 15 games during the regular season.
Michael Porter Jr. had 14 points, 10 rebounds and a playoff career-high six assists in a series-high 38 minutes for his eighth career playoff double-double and fifth of this postseason. The Nuggets are 7-2 this postseason when Porter Jr. has 7+ rebounds and six assists.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope had 17 points, three rebounds and two steals in 34 minutes. It was Caldwell-Pope’s fourth career playoff game with 17+ points, 3+ rebounds and 2+ steals (3-1), three of the four times have been with Denver. Caldwell-Pope’s team are 8-4 in the playoffs when he scores 15+ points.
Bruce Brown finished with 15 points, five rebounds and five assists in 29 minutes, becoming the first bench player with those numbers and zero turnovers in the playoffs since Andre Iguodala in 2015.
Denver has never swept a team in the playoffs.
Bet Nuggets to Win Today
MyBookie Betting Lines for the Game
Why Bet on LA Lakers?
The Lakers had been unbeaten at home before the Game 3 loss. Denver shot 50 percent from the field and made 17 3-pointers. Los Angeles scored 52 points in the paint and notched 18 second chance points, but the Nuggets scored 19 fast break points and tallied 30 assists.
Anthony Davis finished the game with 28 points, 18 rebounds, one assist and two blocks. LeBron James notched 23 points, seven rebounds and 12 assists as he passed Bill Russell for the fifth-most double-doubles in NBA playoffs history. Austin Reaves scored a postseason career-high 23 points with seven rebounds, five assists and one steal, while Rui Hachimura led the second unit with 13 points, six rebounds, one assist and one steal.
Reaves has now scored at least 20 points in four straight and five of his last six, going back to the second-round win over Golden State. He’s averaging 16.8 points, 4.6 rebounds, 4.6 assists and 2.5 triples in the playoffs.
D’Angelo Russell posted just three points, three rebounds and four assists over 20 minutes. Russell was ice cold in the loss, going 1-of-8 from the floor, ending with three points in 20 minutes. His form has been wildly inconsistent throughout the playoffs. Jarred Vanderbilt remained in the starting lineup Saturday but managed just two points in 14 minutes. He has basically been a non-factor on offense for the majority of the playoffs.
NBA teams are 0-149 when trailing 3-0 in a best-of-seven series, and the Lakers as a franchise have never even forced a Game 5 when in this position, going 0-8. L.A. trailed by three in the final minute in Games 1 and 2. And the Lakers had their chances in Game 3, taking the lead in the fourth. The Nuggets have edged the Lakers consistently enough to turn a seemingly small margin between the two teams into a wide gap.
“I think it’s been the timely shots by their role players,” James said when asked what he felt the difference has been.
Bet Lakers to Win Today
MyBookie Betting Lines for the Game
- Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.
- Nuggets are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
- Lakers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.
- Lakers are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following a straight up loss.
- Nuggets are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Los Angeles.
Lakers 115, Nuggets 112
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