NBA Playoffs: Philadelphia vs. Miami Game 1 Odds

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The Philadelphia 76ers will be without superstar Joel Embiid, the NBA scoring champion, for Game 1 of their Eastern Conference semifinal series in Miami on Monday. That jumped the NBA odds to Miami -7.5.

How to Bet Sixers at Heat NBA Odds & TV Info

When: Monday, 7:30 PM ET
Where: FTX Arena
TV: TNT
Stream: TNT app
Radio: Tunein.com
NBA Odds: Heat -7.5 (total 208.5)

Season Series

The teams split four regular-season meetings. They last played March 21 in Philly and the Sixers won 113-106 despite playing without stars Joel Embiid and James Harden. Tyrese Maxey scored 13 of his game-high 28 points in the fourth quarter. Shake Milton scored 20 points and Furkan Korkmaz added 18 for Philadelphia. Jimmy Butler scored 27, Bam Adebayo had 22 and Kyle Lowry 20 for Miami.

Why Bet on Philadelphia?

The Sixers finished off the Raptors in Game 6 on Thursday in a 132-97 road win but it was very costly as NBA scoring champion Joel Embiid suffered a right facial fracture and mild concussion from an elbow by Raptors forward Pascal Siakam with 3 minutes, 58 seconds to go in Philadelphia’s blowout win. It’s absolutely absurd that Embiid was still in the game at the point yet Coach Doc Rivers defended his decision – Embiid will miss at least the first two games.

“Everyone was in there, and the other team had all their guys in, too,” Rivers said. “After Joel made the shot and did the airplane [the prior possession], if you watch the game, I turned and said, ‘I’m calling a timeout on the next possession.’ I’m not upset that he was in. You can make that a big deal if you want. But just go look at every team, and every game, and their guys are in until about the four-, three-minute mark. That’s what it is.”

Embiid had 33 points and 10 rebounds in the victory and averaged 26.2 points and 11.3 rebounds in the first-round series. Embiid was already playing through a torn ligament in his right (shooting) thumb, an injury he suffered in the first half of Philadelphia’s Game 3 win in Toronto. The MVP candidate is expected to be re-evaluated by team doctors on Wednesday, and there’s a chance that he could be available for either Game 3 or Game 4 at home.

James Harden said he will play with more aggression sans Embiid. When Harden was a member of the Houston Rockets, he was recognized as an aggressive scorer on the offensive end. But ever since getting traded to the Brooklyn Nets and now the 76ers, Harden has mostly shifted into a playmaker role.

“[I just have to] be more aggressive,” said Harden. “I’ve been doing this — I’m comfortable and have been doing this for a long time. Just taking what the defense gives me and being aggressive, and making the right decision once I get to that point. More floor spacing and more attacks to the basket. We just have to play free — free and with the ultimate confidence as a group.”

Paul Reed probably takes most of Embiid’s minutes. DeAndre Jordan may actually see the court now as well. The Sixers’ 35-point margin of victory vs. Toronto was the team’s largest ever in a close-out postseason victory. It was only the 16th time in NBA history a team won a close-out game by 35-plus points.

Why Bet on Miami?

The Heat will not have point guard Kyle Lowry for Game 1 as he continues to recover from a hamstring injury suffered in Game 3 of the Heat’s first-round win over Miami. Lowry hasn’t played since. Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said that while Lowry continues to make progress, it remains uncertain when he will be able to play in this series.

“I’m not even going [on] any kind of timetable,” Spoelstra said after Sunday’s practice. “I know he’s doing more. Gym has been great. Everybody’s been able to do something and to prepare for the series.”

The Heat are listing Jimmy Butler as questionable with right knee soreness, but Butler said that he would be ready for Game 1. He has scored at least 20 points in his last nine games. Butler averaged a team-high 30.5 points against the Hawks in the First Round. His 30.5 scoring average was the fifth-highest during a single series in Heat postseason history.

Tyler Herro is questionable after dealing with a cold the past few days but said Saturday he would play. P.J. Tucker (calf), Caleb Martin (ankle), Max Strus (hamstring) and Markieff Morris (non-COVID illness) are all also questionable for Game 1.

The Heat had four different leading scorers in the five-game First Round series against Atlanta: Butler (Games Two & Four), Victor Oladipo (Game Five), Herro (Game Three) and Duncan Robinson (Game One). The team outscored Atlanta by +60 points in their five-game First Round series. The 60 points are the fourth-largest cumulative scoring margin for a series in postseason franchise history.

Miami has advanced to the Eastern Conference Semifinals for the 12th time in franchise history, including the seventh occasion in their last nine postseason appearances.

These teams have faced each other just two times during the playoffs with Miami winning the 2011 First Round (4-1) and the Sixers winning the 2018 First Round (4-1).

Game Trends

76ers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a road underdog.
76ers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
76ers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Heat are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Monday games.
Heat are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Heat are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
76ers are 1-4-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Miami.