#12 Oregon State vs. #8 Loyola (Chicago) | 2021 NCAA Basketball Expert Analysis

Just three years ago, Sister Jean and Loyola (Chicago) made a shocking run to the Final Four. The No. 8 Ramblers have returned to the Sweet 16 in the 2021 NCAA Tournament and are favored on the NCAAB odds to beat No. 12 Oregon State in Midwest Region action Saturday to reach the Elite Eight.

• When: Saturday, 2:40 PM ET
• Where: Bankers Life Fieldhouse, Indianapolis
• TV: CBS
• Stream: https://www.ncaa.com/march-madness-live
• Radio:com
• Opening NCAAB Lines: Loyola -6.5 (total 125.5)

Second all-time meeting. The schools met way back on New Year’s Eve 1927 and Loyola (Chicago) beat Oregon State 31-19. Yeah, not much offense back then.

Oregon State shockingly won three straight games in the Pac-12 Tournament to get into the Big Dance and has upset No. 5 Tennessee and No. 4 Oklahoma State in this tournament. That means the Beavers have won five straight games in elimination settings. Their Basketball Power Index chance to win was under 30% in each of those games, and the odds they would win all five was approximately 1 in 2,800.

In Sunday’s 80-70 win over Oklahoma State, senior guard Ethan Thompson led the Beavers with 26 points on 5-of-11 shooting and seven rebounds. Oregon State also got a heavy lift from junior forward Maurice Calloo, who scored 15 points in the first half.

The Beavers scored 44 points in the first half, the most allowed by Oklahoma State in a first half this season. Their 44-30 halftime lead was also Oklahoma State’s largest halftime deficit of the season. The Cowboys shot 27.7% from the floor for the game, their worst shooting performance since 2014. OSU’s 3-pointers weren’t falling (6-for-20), but the Beavers held an opponent under 90 points per 100 possessions for the second consecutive game.

Pac-12 Tournament MVP Warith Alatishe has gotten off to a slow start in the NCAA Tournament, with just 10 points to his credit, but he has hauled down 21 rebounds in two games, and he could pose a bit of a matchup challenge to the Ramblers on Saturday.

Oregon State coach Wayne Tinkle grew up in Chicago, where his father served as vice president and dean of students at Loyola in the 1970s. The Beavers are attempting to become the first No. 12 seed to make a Final Four. At lead one team seeded from 1-11 has been there.

Why Bet on Loyola (Chicago)? | 2021 NCAA Basketball Expert Analysis

The Ramblers (26-4) had little trouble in Round 1 in beating No. 9 Georgia Tech and then shockingly handled No. 1 Illinois 71-58 pretty easy in the Round of 32.

Missouri Valley Conference Player of the Year Cameron Krutwig had 19 points, 12 rebounds and five assists and a swarming defensive effort stifled the Illini. Illinois was down double digits most of the game but found itself within seven points (65-58) with 1:38 remaining. However, the Ramblers knocked down 6 of 8 shots from the foul line in the final 91 seconds to seal the victory. The win was the Ramblers’ eighth in a row and sends them to the Sweet 16 for the second time in the last four seasons.

Krutwig collected his 22^nd-career double-double, finishing with 19 points, 12 rebounds, five assists and four steals, while his senior classmate, Lucas Williamson, provided 14 points and was key part of a group that held Ayo Dosunmu to nine points and forced him into six turnovers. Not only does Krutwig lead the Ramblers in scoring (14.9 points per game) and rebounding (6.7 per), he is shooting 57.6% from the field and averaging 3.0 assists per game this season.

Illinois entered the game averaging 81.3 points per game but was held to 23 points below its season average by Loyola’s stingy defense, which leads the nation in points allowed. This squad justified its No. 1 adjusted defensive efficiency rating on KenPom by holding Illinois to 0.88 points per possession.

Loyola, which has won 19 of its last 20 games, shot 51 percent (26-for-51) from the field. Loyola is 15-5 (.750) all time in NCAA Tournament action has earned five postseason wins over higher-seeded teams as well as six NCAA Tournament victories overall over the last four seasons.

• Beavers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
• Beavers are 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS win.
• Beavers are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games as an underdog.
• Ramblers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
• Ramblers are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
• Ramblers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 NCAA Tournament games.
• Ramblers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 Saturday games.

Expert NBA Prediction

Loyola (Chicago) 66, Oregon State 62

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