#9 Virginia vs #17 Florida State Road to March Madness | 2021 NCAA Basketball Expert Analysis

Monday’s college basketball schedule is rather light, but there is one terrific matchup from the ACC as No. 9 Virginia visits No. 17 Florida State, which is a short favorite on the NCAAB odds. A Wahoos win could all but wrap up the ACC regular-season title.

How to Bet Virginia at Florida State NCAA Basketball Odds & TV Info

• When: Monday, 7 PM ET
• Where: Donald L. Tucker Center
• TV: ESPN
• Stream: ESPN app
• Radio:com
• Opening NCAAB Lines: Florida State -1 (total 130)

Last Meeting

The teams split two low-scoring games last season. The one in Tallahassee was 54-50 in favor of the Seminoles when they were ranked No. 9 and Virginia unranked. Devin Vassell scored 18 points, including a 3-pointer and a pair of free throws in the final seconds. He’s now in the NBA. Florida State had 16 turnovers. But the Seminoles won with their defense, creating 10 steals, blocking five shots and forcing Virginia into 18 turnovers. The Cavs were just 3-for-15 from deep and all three makes came from one player. UVA shot 21 of 46 (45.7%) from the floor.

Virginia is 26-26 all-time vs. Florida State, including an 8-16 mark in Tallahassee, in a series that began in 1991-92.

Why Bet on Virginia? | 2021 NCAA Basketball Expert Analysis

The Cavs (15-3) come off an impressive 60-48 home win over North Carolina on Saturday. The Cavaliers led 21-4 midway through the first half as the Tar Heels missed 13 of their first 15 shots. North Carolina closed to within 27-18 by halftime, but never threatened. The Tar Heels finished just 2 for 16 from 3-point territory. Virginia, meanwhile, was 10 for 22 from deep.

Not a single North Carolina player reached double-figure points against that excellent UVA defense. The last time no Tar Heel scored in double figures was March 4, 1966, a 21-20 loss to Duke in the ACC Tournament in Raleigh, North Carolina. John Yokley led UNC with six points in that game.

Jay Huff finished with a double-double, leading UVA with 18 points and matching a career-high with 12 rebounds on Saturday. Sam Hauser added 17 points, hitting four 3-pointers, and Trey Murphy III had 12 points. Reece Beekman had career-highs in rebounds (8) and assists (7).

UVA held its fourth opponent to fewer than 50 points (4-0). The Cavaliers limited the Tar Heels to two points (1 of 12 shooting) for the first 7:47 of the game. The Cavs made 10 or more 3-pointers for the eighth time. UVA’s seven-game winning streak in the series is its longest in the series since winning the first eight games between the teams from 1911-16.

Hauser leads the team in scoring (15.1 ppg) and rebounding (7.1 rpg), and is shooting 51 percent from the field, 43.9 percent from 3-point range and 82.8 percent from the foul line.

Virginia ranks second nationally in personal fouls per game (12.7), third in turnovers per game (9.3), fourth in scoring defense (58.8) and 3-point field goal percentage (39.9), fifth in free throw percentage (80.0%), 11th in assist/turnover ratio (1.5) and 18th in field goal percentage (49%). UVA is 5-1 in true road games (all in league play).

Why Bet on Florida State? | 2021 NCAA Basketball Expert Analysis

FSU avoided a home upset vs. Wake Forest on Saturday, 92-85 in OT. The Seminoles tied it at 80 with under a second to go in regulation when freshman star Scottie Barnes drove the length of the floor and made a reverse layup. The Noles were without starting center Balsa Koprivica and he’s in question here.

Rather amazingly, it was FSU’s 11^th straight overtime win dating back a few seasons. That tied an NCAA record consecutive overtime wins, matching the totals by Louisville (1968-75), UMass (1991-96) and Virginia (1991-96). FSU also has won 23 straight home ACC games, a streak that dates to a 77-68 win over Clemson on Jan. 22, 2019. It’s the second-longest in ACC history, shy of Duke’s 26-game string from January 1997-February 2000.

Junior RaiQuan Gray scored a career-high 24 points and pulled down a career-high 12 rebounds in the win. Barnes, who finished with 13 points, scored 11 points after halftime to finish in double figures scoring for the sixth time in his career.

Junior Anthony Polite made his return to the court with 12 points and five rebounds. Polite made three of seven shots from the 3-point line and is 19 of 37 (.514) from the three this season. Senior M.J. Walker contributed 14 points, while leading the Seminoles with five assists and two steals. It marked the 11th time in 14 games this season in which he has scored in double figures. Walker has scored 976 career points and needs only 24 points to become the 47th member of the Seminoles’ 1,000 career point club.

Florida State is 75-4 (.949 winning percentage) in its last 79 home games since the end of the 2015-16 season.  The Seminoles enter Monday’s game against Virginia having won .949 percent of their games (75-4) and .933 percent of their ACC games (42-3) at home since the tail end of the 2015-16 season.

Florida State’s streak began with a 77-56 win over No. 23 Notre Dame on February 27, 2015.  The Seminoles are 10-1 at home this season, were 16-0 at home last season (including 10-0 in ACC play), were 15-1 at home (including 8-1 in the ACC) during the 2018-19 season and were 18-0 at home (including 9-0 in the ACC) in the 2016-17 season.

FSU has two wins over ranked teams this season. The Seminoles defeated No. 25 Florida (December 12, 83-71) and No. 20 Clemson (January 23, 80-61) in games played in Tallahassee.

Expert College Basketball Prediction

Florida State 67, Virginia 64

 

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