AFC Divisional Round Betting Analysis & Picks.

AFC Divisional Round Betting Analysis & Picks

Written by on January 9, 2019

We are just a week removed from the excitement that was the Wild Card Weekend, but there is no rest for the 8 teams still alive in the hunt for the Super Bowl. This coming Saturday and Sunday, we will have the Divisional Round, with 4 games on tap over the two days. It’s not a hugely busy schedule, but there are more than enough NFL betting options out there to help you put a little extra cash in your pocket.

We are going to break down all 4 games and the bets that we are looking at, starting with the AFC Divisional Round, so let’s get right to it.

AFC Divisional Round Betting Analysis & Picks

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs

Recent Head to Head (Last 10 Games)

  • Record: Colts lead 7-3
  • Score: Colts 25.40 / Chiefs 22.50
  • Rush Yards: Colts 103.40 / Chiefs 156.70
  • Pass Attempts: Colts 36.90 / Chiefs 31.00
  • Completion Percentage: Colts 61.25 / Chiefs 63.23
  • Passing Yards: Colts 272.00 / Chiefs 221.70
  • Total Yards: Colts 375.4 / Chiefs 378.4
  • Turnovers: Colts 1.20 / Chiefs 1.70

This will be the first game of the weekend, with the Chiefs in as a 5 ½ point favorite, with the point total set at 57 ½. While the Chiefs delivered a powerhouse offensive performance throughout the course of the season, they went a little cold in the closing weeks, losing 2 of their last 3 games. At 13-3, the Chiefs were a very good SU pick, but they were not exactly money against the spread, going 4-4 ATS as a home favorite this season. Despite being a high-scoring team, it was the UNDER that was most prevalent in home games for the Chiefs, going 3-4-1 O/U.

The Indianapolis Colts were one of the hottest teams in the league in the second half of the season, winning 9 of their last 10 games, including a big win over the Houston Texans in the Wild Card Game last weekend. The Colts were also a very solid bet ATS, covering in 4 of their last 5 games, including their first playoff game last weekend. They were 4-2 ATS as an underdog on the road this season. As far as the point total goes, the Colts were 4-5 O/U on the road this season.

Expert Picks

  • SU – Chiefs
  • ATS – Colts
  • O/U – UNDER

LA Chargers at New England Patriots

Recent Head to Head (Last 10 Games)

  • Record: Patriots lead 7-3
  • Score: Chargers 20.70 / Patriots 22.60
  • Rush Yards: Chargers 116.90 / Patriots 93.80
  • Pass Attempts: Chargers 32.10 / Patriots 40.50
  • Completion Percentage: Chargers 61.99 / Patriots 64.94
  • Passing Yards: Chargers 227.00 / Patriots 267.90
  • Total Yards: Chargers 343.9 / Patriots 361.7
  • Turnovers: Chargers 2.10 / Patriots 1.60

The Sunday AFC game sees the Chargers, fresh off a big win on the road in Baltimore, head into Foxboro to face the New England Patriots. Given their success over the past decade or so, it’s probably no real surprise that the Patriots are in as a 4-point favorite, with the point total set at 46.

The Patriots come in as AFC Divisional Round Betting favorites against the Chargers.

While New England is always dangerous in the playoffs, the last month of the regular season was not particularly convincing, with the Patriots losing back to back before winning their last two against incredibly weak opponents. The Pats were 6-2 ATS as a home favorite this year, with the OVER hitting just twice in 8 home games.

The Chargers went into Baltimore last week as a 3-point underdog, and while they were made to sweat it out a little at the end, the defense had done enough in the early going to secure the win. Given that the Chargers are going to be on the road through the postseason, it’s easy to forget that they had 12 wins in the regular season. They seem to love the role of the road underdog, going 5-1 ATS in those tilts. 5 of their 9 road games this season have gone OVER. I think we might just be looking at an upset here.

Expert Picks

  • SU – Chargers
  • ATS – Chargers
  • O/U – OVER