We’re past the NFL Season’s halfway point, which means it’s time for us to assess future bets. In this blog, we’re taking a look at NFL Conference winners. Which teams offer the best odds to take the AFC and which team is the chalk to win the NFC? What teams are smart overlay plays and what teams are strong longshots? Check out NFL Conference Championship odds along with the best favorite, smart, and underdog plays.
NFL Conference Winners Fave Pick, Smart Choice, Longshot Contender
2022 NFL Conference Championships
- When: Sunday, Jan. 30, 2022
- Where: TBD
- TV / Streaming: AFC – CBS / Paramount +, NFC – FOX / FOX Sports
- Favorite: Buffalo Bills +300
Buffalo remains the favorite to win the conference even though Josh Allen and his teammates fell to the Jacksonville Jaguars straight up as a -14 ½ chalk in NFL Week 9.
At the odds, are the Bills worth a look? Not even close. Losing to a decent team is one thing. Not scoring more than 6 points against the Jaguars with a rookie head coach is another. Buffalo must prove they’re worth backing at the underlay odds.
- Smart: Tennessee Titans +650
Heading into Week 10, the Titans are the best play to win the AFC. Tennessee has shown it can go into a tough place, SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, and upset a very good NFC team. The Titans victory over the Rams last Sunday also proved Tennessee could win a defensive game.
The Titans have a tough match up this Sunday versus New Orleans. Even if Tennessee loses, they remain the best play to take the AFC Championship.
- Longshot: New England Patriots +1400
Heading into Week 10, the Pats are a single game behind the Buffalo Bills for first place in the AFC East. It took New England a while, but the Patriots have turned into one of the better teams in the NFL.
New England is on a 3-game winning streak heading into their Nov. 14 contest versus the Cleveland Browns. The Patriots would be on a 4-game winning streak if not for the overtime loss to the Cowboys on Oct. 17.
Mac Jones has become a solid quarterback. The defense has turned into one of the best units in the league. Give the Patriots a chance.
- Favorite: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +260
Tampa has played like the best team in the NFL. The Buccaneers have lost just 2 games and one of the losses, to New Orleans, was versus their biggest rivals.
Unless someone derails the Bucs, Tampa should win homefield advantage based on their NFL Week 1 victory against the Cowboys. Not only that, but Green Bay may be without their starting quarterback for a couple more weeks.
Unlike the Bills, Tampa offers fair odds. If you believe in Brady, who is now the MVP favorite, and you think the Bucs’ defense improves, +260 isn’t a bad number.
- Smart: Dallas Cowboys +500
The Buccaneers are a fair play. The Dallas Cowboys are a smart play. Don’t let Denver’s beat down in NFL Week 9 fool you. Dallas is one of the top three best teams in the NFC.
The Cowboys probably should have upset Tampa in Week 1. Also, the loss to Denver happened because quarterback Dak Prescott was out of sync with his offensive line and receiving corp. Dallas will bounce back with a huge win against the Falcons this Sunday.
- Longshot: New Orleans Saints +2000
Dallas, Tampa Bay, Arizona, the Rams, and Green Bay are so much better than the rest of the NFC that it’s hard to find a longshot. The only longshot that qualifies are the New Orleans Saints.
The Saints must win without Jameis Winston. There’s also a huge probability that New Orleans enters the playoffs a wildcard. But at +2000, the Saints are the best play in the NFC. Nobody game plans like Sean Payton, Taysom Hill should return 100% soon, and Trevor Siemian had a decent game against the Falcons in a loss.
Then there’s the Saints defense, which is much, much better than what it showed versus Atlanta. If the Saints upset Tennessee on the road this Sunday, New Orleans odds to win the conference will drop big time.
So if you believe, bet before the Titans game.
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