NFL Betting: AFC South Free Agency Week 1 Thoughts

Written by on March 25, 2020

While Tennessee and Houston both reached the playoffs last season, Indianapolis will be looking to get back in the postseason after taking a step backwards from their fine 2019 campaign – and then – there’s the Jacksonville Jaguars. With a robust free agent signing period that saw all four teams make some fairly significant moves, let’s find out how each franchise in the AFC South fared and what could potentially lie ahead for each of the Super Bowl hopefuls in 2020 with their NFL Odds and Super Bowl Odds Updated.

AFC South Free Agency Week 1 Thoughts

Tennessee Titans

Additions/players brought back:

  • RB Derrick Henry (franchise tag)
  • QB Ryan Tannehill (re-signed for four years, $118 million, $62 million guaranteed)
  • T Dennis Kelly (re-signed for three years, $21 million, $8.75 million guaranteed)
  • EDGE Vic Beasley Jr. (signed for one year, $12 million, $9.5 million guaranteed)


  • QB Marcus Mariota
  • T Jack Conklin
  • CB Logan Ryan
  • EDGE Cameron Wake (cut)
  • TE Delanie Walker (cut)
  • RB Dion Lewis (cut)
  • DI Jurrell Casey (via trade)

Well, the Tennessee Titans are betting their immediate future on Derrick Henry and Ryan Tannehill! After reaching the AFC title game a year ago before falling to eventual Super Bowl champion Kansas City, Tennessee put their franchise tag on Henry while signing Tannehill to a four-year $118 million deal. Tennessee also added former Pro Bowl linebacker Vic Beasley, who will be looking for a bounce-back campaign after a down 2019. The Titans also re-signed tackle Dennis Kelly, but they lost star tackle Jack Conklin, cornerback Logan Ryan, edge rusher Cameron wake and tight end Delanie Walker while also parting ways with former No. 2 overall draft pick and intended franchise savior Marcus Mariota. Overall, their losses look like they slightly outweigh their additions.

  • Grade: C-
  • Odds to Win the AFC South: +175
  • Odds to Win AFC: +1500
  • Odds to Win Super Bowl: +2500

Houston Texans

Additions/players brought back:

  • RB David Johnson (via trade)
  • CB Bradley Roby (re-signed for three years, $36 million)
  • WR Randall Cobb (signed for three years, $27 million, $18.75 million guaranteed)
  • K Ka’imi Fairbairn (re-signed for four years, $17.65 million, $9 million guaranteed)
  • TE Darren Fells (re-signed for two years, $7 million)
  • QB A.J. McCarron (re-signed for one year, $4 million)


  • WR DeAndre Hopkins (via trade)
  • DI D.J. Reader
  • CB Johnathan Joseph

Let me begin by saying that I’ve been calling for the firing of head coach Bill O’Brien since the 2019 campaign ended. Not only did the Houston Texans not listen to my sage advice, but they went out and made O’Brien their GM! Oops, that was a mistake of epic proportions as O’Brien promptly traded superstar All-Pro wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins for aging running back David Johnson, mostly because of a fractured relationship he caused as we’ve recently come to find out. Houston also parted ways with veteran defensive lineman D.J. Reader and veteran cornerback Johnathan Joseph while re-signing veteran cornerback Bradley Roby, kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn, tight end Darren Fells and quarterback A.J. McCarron. Overall, the loss of Hopkins and nothing close to equal return makes the Texans free agent signing period a complete bust!

  • Grade: F
  • Odds to Win the AFC South: +250
  • Odds to Win AFC: +2200
  • Odds to Win Super Bowl: +4200

Indianapolis Colts

Additions/players brought back:

  • DI DeForest Buckner (via trade)
  • T Anthony Castonzo (re-signed for two years, $33 million)
  • QB Philip Rivers (one year, $25 million guaranteed)


  • TE Eric Ebron
  • WR Devin Funchess
  • EDGE Jabaal Sheard
  • S Clayton Geathers
  • 13th overall pick (via trade)

The Indianapolis Colts are taking a one-year test run with veteran quarterback Philip Rivers and they made a strange trade for veteran defensive tackle DeForest Buckner by giving up the 13t pick in the draft and then giving the former 49ers star $21 million per year. Indianapolis made a smart move by re-signing veteran tackle Anthony Castonzo, but they lost tight end Eric Ebron and wide receiver Devin Funchess. Overall, I’m not very impressed.

  • Grade: C
  • Odds to Win the AFC South: +150
  • Odds to Win AFC: +1200
  • Odds to Win Super Bowl: +2800

Jacksonville Jaguars

Additions/players brought back:

  • EDGE Yannick Ngakoue (franchise tag)
  • LB Joe Schobert (signed for five years, $53.75 million, $22.5 million guaranteed)
  • CB Darqueze Dennard (signed for three years, $13.5 million, $6 million guaranteed)
  • IOL Tyler Shatley (re-signed for one year, $1.5 million)


  • EDGE Calais Campbell (via trade)
  • DI Marcell Dareus
  • QB Nick Foles (via trade)
  • CB A.J. Bouye (via trade)

The Jacksonville Jaguars are clearly in full rebuild mode after trading still effective veterans, A.J. Bouye, Calais Campbell and Nick Foles. Jacksonville put the franchise tag on edge rusher Yannick Ngakoue and made a pair of good additions on the defensive side of the ball by signing veteran linebacker Joe Schobert and cornerback Darqueze Dennard. For a team looking to tank and shed salary, I guess the Jags did okay in free agency, although I would have liked to see them add some more young, mid-level kind of guys with potential.

  • Grade: C-
  • Odds to Win the AFC South: +1400
  • Odds to Win AFC: +6600
  • Odds to Win Super Bowl: +15000