Heading into July, one NFL franchise promises to attract more attention than any other. The Buffalo Bills are the early season chalk to win the 2023 Super Bowl. Not only is Buffalo the favorite to win the Super Bowl, but quarterback Josh Allen is the favorite to win NFL MVP. Will Buffalo live up to expectations? Keep reading for a Buffalo Bills 2022 Season NFL Betting Guide.
Buffalo Bills 2022 Season NFL Betting Guide
2022-23 NFL Regular Season- When: Sep. 8, 2022 – Jan. 8, 2023
Buffalo Bills Over/Under 11 ½
Buffalo plays in what should be a super competitive division, the AFC East. Miami, New England, and even the Jets have playoff potential. So if the Bills play in such a difficult division, do they have any chance of winning 12 games?
Buffalo plays 4 of their first 6 games on the road. Not only that, but every team they play on the road qualifies as a good team.
The Los Angeles Rams, Miami Dolphins, Baltimore Ravens, and Kansas City Chiefs are legit playoff contenders. Buffalo could lose all four of those games.
But even if Buffalo loses 4 of their first 6, there’s a good chance the Bills go on a run and win at least 12. How is that possible?
The Bills have 6 home games in their last 11. If Buffalo wins all 6 at home, and we count the 2 wins before the bye, that’s 8 wins. So the Bills must find 4 more wins.
At the Jets, at the Lions, at the Patriots, at the Bears should be victories. So even if Buffalo starts the season with 4 losses in their first 6 games, they have a real shot of going over the win loss total.
Total Game Pick: Over 11 ½
Bills to win the AFC East -206
A team that wins 12 games should win their division. The odds on Buffalo aren’t overlaid by any stretch of the imagination.
But -206 aren’t underlay odds, either. -206 is a fair price to back the Bills to win the AFC East. Buffalo is the class of the division.
AFC East Odds: Fair
Buffalo to win the AFC Conference +320
To win their AFC East, Buffalo must end the season with a better record than the Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, and New England Patriots.
To win the AFC Conference, Buffalo must beat the Kansas City Chiefs, Cincinnati Bengals, Los Angeles Chargers, and second tier contenders like the Raiders, Ravens, and Broncos.
As good as Buffalo is, the AFC is loaded. Cincinnati is flying the under the radar. The Chiefs will be just as good this season as last season and the other teams in the AFC West, Las Vegas, Denver, and the Bolts are all good enough make it to the Super Bowl.
+320 are underlay odds.
AFC Conference Odds: Underlay
Buffalo to Win the Super Bowl +610
So if +320 to win the conference are underlay odds, +610 to win the Super Bowl must also be underlay odds, right?
Not necessarily. No doubt that if Buffalo wins the AFC Conference they will have a great shot to win the Super Bowl. No team in the NFC this season is as talented as the Bengals and Chiefs.
It will be more difficult for the Bills to win the AFC than it should be for them to win the Super Bowl. So +610 constitutes fair odds.
Super Bowl Odds: Fair
QB Josh Allen to win NFL MVP +680
Allen means more to his team than any other player in the league. Not only that, but the Bills are favorites to win the Super Bowl. So all eyes will be on Allen from day one.
Still, +680 are short odds. Then again, no player will have as much of a chance to prove they deserve the award and two-time defending MVP Aaron Rodgers lost his stop target, Davante Adams, to the Las Vegas Raiders.
+680 on Allen to win NFL MVP are fair odds.
NFL MVP Odds: Fair
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