NFL Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Betting Analysis – Week 1

Super Bowl favorite Kansas City hosts one of their top AFC rivals on Sunday when Baker Mayfield leads the Cleveland Browns into Arrowhead Stadium. Baker and the Browns believe they’ve got what it takes to overtake KC and win the AFC Championship while Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs feel they can win their second Super Bowl in the past three seasons. Which top quarterback is right? Check out NFL odds, analysis, and a free pick for Browns versus Chiefs.  

NFL Betting Preview for Cleveland Browns vs Kansas City Chiefs

NFL Week 1: Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs Game Info & Odds

• When: Sunday, Sep. 12 at 4:25 pm ET
• Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
• TV / Streaming: CBS / Paramount +
• ATS Odds: Kansas City -6 ½ (-105)
• Moneyline Odds: Cleveland +225 / Kansas City -275
• Over/Under Odds: O 54 ½ (-110) / U 54 ½ (-110) 

Why bet on Cleveland versus Kansas City?

Cleveland may have the best rushing attack in the league. The Browns averaged close to 150 yards per game on the ground last season. Not only that, but Cleveland proved they can run against KC’s defense. In a playoff game last season, Browns rushers jaunted for 112 yards from 22 carries. That’s a 5.1 per carry average. If Cleveland gets their running game going early, the Chiefs must adjust, which should leave one-on-on coverage on wide receivers Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry.  

Cleveland Browns 2020 Offensive Averages

• Total Yards: 369.6

• Passing Yards: 221.2

• Rushing Yards: 148.4

• Points Scored: 25.5

• Turnovers: 16

Cleveland Browns 2020 Defensive Averages

• Total Yards: 358.4

• Passing Yards: 247.6

• Rushing Yards: 110.8

• Points Scored: 26.2

• Takeaways: 26

Why bet on Kansas City versus Cleveland?

Last season, the Chiefs led the league in total yards and passing yards per game. Based on the fact Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce return this season, there’s a good chance KC again leads the league in total yards but with a better rushing game. Clyde Edwards-Helaire has a full season under his belt. Also, Andy Reid has made trades for run first type offensive linemen. Expect the Chiefs to show a new offensive dimension on Sunday.  

Kansas City Chiefs 2020 Offensive Averages

• Total Yards: 415.8

• Passing Yards: 303.4

• Rushing Yards: 112.4

• Points Scored: 29.6

• Turnovers: 16

Kansas City Chiefs 2020 Defensive Averages

• Total Yards: 358.3

• Passing Yards: 236.2

• Rushing Yards: 122.1

• Points Scored: 22.6

• Takeaways: 23

Cleveland versus Kansas City Final Betting Prediction

Although Kansas City is the better team, Cleveland is motivated. The Browns have the stronger rushing attack no matter who Reid starts on the offensive line.

In addition, Baker Mayfield knows this is his make or break season. He must take the Browns further in the playoffs. The quest for the AFC title starts in Week 1 because Cleveland plays the defending conference champions.

If Cleveland’s defense has improved at all, the Browns could not only win this against the spread, but also upset KC on the moneyline. 

Don’t be surprised if the Browns pull off the SU upset. At +6.5, Cleveland is an overlay to cover. So if you don’t want to back Cleveland to win this on the moneyline consider taking the points.  

NFL Week 1 Pick: Cleveland Browns

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