NFL Playoffs Odds: Bills vs Chiefs Divisional Round Betting Analysis & Prediction

For the second time this season, two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL clash when Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills head to Kansas City to take on Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Will Allen lead the Bills to a second straight AFC Championship? Or will Mahomes and the Chiefs show why they’re the second choice to win Super Bowl 56? See below for NFL Playoffs odds, analysis, and a free pick for Chiefs versus Bills.

NFL Divisional Round Betting Preview for Buffalo Bills at Kansas City

Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs Game Odds & Info | NFL Playoffs Betting

• When: Sunday, Jan. 23 at 6:30 pm ET 
• Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
• TV / Streaming: CBS / Paramount+
• ATS Odds: Kansas City -2 ½ 
• Moneyline Odds: Buffalo +110 / Kansas City -130  
• Over/Under Odds: 54 ½   

Why bet on Buffalo versus Kansas City?

Since a 33-27 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Buffalo Bills have been on a roll, winning 5 straight. No victory was as impressive as the 47-17 beating the Bills handed the rival New England Patriots in last Saturday’s wild card matchup. The Bills were so on point that Buffalo scored touchdowns on their first 7 drives, an NFL Playoff record. Buffalo beat the Chiefs in KC earlier in the season. There’s no reason to believe the Bills can’t again beat Kansas City on the road.  

Buffalo Bills Offensive Averages

• Total Yards: 381.9

• Passing Yards: 252.0

• Rushing Yards: 129.9

• Points Scored: 28.4

• Turnovers: 22

Buffalo Bills Defensive Averages

• Total Yards: 272.8

• Passing Yards: 163.0

• Rushing Yards: 109.8

• Points Scored: 17.0

• Takeaways: 27

Why bet on Kansas City versus Buffalo?

Last Sunday night, it took KC a quarter to get going. But once they did, Mahomes and his teammates buried the Pittsburgh Steelers with a 21 points second quarter barrage. From then on, it was all over but the shouting. Kansas City sent Big Ben into retirement with a 42-21 loss. KC has momentum heading into this matchup. That, along with home field, makes them the team to beat.  

Kansas City Chiefs Offensive Averages

• Total Yards: 396.8

• Passing Yards: 281.8

• Rushing Yards: 115.0

• Points Scored: 28.2

• Turnovers: 25

Kansas City Chiefs Defensive Averages

• Total Yards: 368.9

• Passing Yards: 251.4

• Rushing Yards: 117.6

• Points Scored: 21.4

• Takeaways: 27

Bills at Chiefs Relevant Trends

• Bills are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games 
• Buffalo is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 on the road
• Over is 9-2-1 in the Bills’ last 12 on grass
• Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff games at home
• Kansas City is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite
• Over is 6-0 in the Chiefs’ last 6 games as a favorite

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs Final Betting Prediction

Sometimes, deciding on which team to back is based purely on the odds. That’s the case with this matchup.

You can try and make a case that Kansas City has the edge. They’ve got home field. Running back Jerrick McKinnon is an intangible that Andy Reid didn’t use during the season. The KC defense is playing great.

Or you can try and make a case for the Buffalo Bills. Josh Allen is unstoppable when he runs with the football. The defense ranks first in total yards allowed and first in points allowed per game. 

Then, there’s the third option. Instead of looking for which team to back, look for the best bet to make. In this game, the best bet to make is on the Buffalo Bills to win straight up.

Why? The two teams are similar in talent on offense. Buffalo has a better defense, but the Chiefs are at home, which should cancel the Bills’ defensive edge.

Ah, but Josh Allen and Buffalo beat the Bills in KC in the first game. In an impossible game to handicap, one where the teams are too even to make a choice, it makes sense to look for the optimal bet. In this game, the optimal bet is on Buffalo to win SU. 

NFL Divisional Round Pick: Buffalo Bills moneyline

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